Weekly Update #110
April 8, 2024

UPDATES ON INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

NATO weighs a plan to provide long-term military help to Ukraine as Russian troops assert control

NATO is debating a plan to provide more predictable military support to Ukraine in coming years as better armed Russian troops assert control on the battlefield, the organization’s top civilian official said Wednesday.

“We strongly believe that support to Ukraine should be less dependent on short-term, voluntary offers and more dependent on long-term NATO commitments,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said before chairing a meeting of the alliance’s foreign ministers in Brussels.

Earlier on Wednesday, Ukraine lowered the military conscription age from 27 to 25 to help replenish its depleted ranks after more than two years of war. A shortage of infantry combined with a severe ammunition shortfall has helped hand Russian troops the initiative.

“The reason why we do this is the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. It is serious,” Stoltenberg told reporters. “We see how Russia is pushing, and we see how they try to win this war by just waiting us out.”

The plan is to have NATO coordinate the work of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — a forum of around 50 countries that has regularly gathered during the war to drum up weapons and ammunition for Ukraine — rather than the U.S. European Command.

While the move would not see NATO directly providing weapons to Ukraine — as an organization with 32 members that functions by consensus, the allies only agree to send non-lethal aid like demining equipment, fuel and medical supplies -– it would mark a new phase in its involvement in the war.

NATO is desperate to do more for Ukraine, particularly while Russia holds a military advantage, but its members are not ready to offer the country their ultimate security guarantee: membership. Nor do they want to be dragged into a wider war with a nuclear-armed military power like Russia.

Under the new plan, which is expected to be endorsed by U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterparts at their next summit in Washington in July, NATO would coordinate the military side of Ukraine support efforts by assessing Ukraine’s needs, collecting pledges and running meetings.

The Financial Times newspaper reported that the multi-year plan could involve up to $100 billion, but Stoltenberg declined to provide details.

Western pledges of support to Ukraine have been marred by broken promises. A European vow to provide 1 million rounds of ammunition fell woefully short, and financial aid meant for Ukraine’s war-stricken economy was delayed by political infighting in Europe and is still blocked in the U.S.

Stoltenberg again urged Congress to overcome its differences and pass a supplemental spending bill, which includes roughly $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, saying that the continued delay “has consequences” on the battlefield.

Source: AP News

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NATO’s next challenge: How to reverse years of underfunding defense

The 75-year history of NATO can be described in three acts, each defined by existential threats to Western security.

First, there was the Cold War and the Soviet threat. Act Two came in the 1990s and 2000s, when NATO deployed troops for the first time in Bosnia and Kosovo, followed by Afghanistan and Iraq. From 2014 onwards, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine and ISIS’s self-proclaimed caliphate brought armed threats right back to the alliance’s borders at a time when the United States and its allies were slowly retreating from the world.

NATO’s fourth act may be defined by a crisis that has unfolded in slow motion. For over a decade, allies have chronically underspent on defense while the West’s adversaries modernized and bolstered their own military capabilities.

The most obvious way to understand the impact of this is through Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Of course, the person most responsible for Russia’s invasion is Putin himself. But people directly involved in Western security policy say that warnings of the need to improve defenses were overlooked in favour of balancing books in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Rasa Juknevičienė, Lithuania’s defense minister from 2008-2012, recalls a meeting with US officials at the Pentagon in 2012 where individuals “from all sides, including the US, acknowledged that Russia would be in a position to test NATO by 2019.”

Despite knowing of the risk, by 2014, only three of the then 30 allies were able to meet NATO’s target of 2% of GDP on defense spending. By 2019, that number had risen only to seven.

Speaking to CNN, Juknevičienė, now a European Parliament member, said: “NATO was sleepy in the 2010s, focused on the war on terror rather than regional threats. Defense spending stayed low across the West not just because of budget pressures, but also because everyone – including the US – was frightened to provoke Russia.

“In my opinion, that meant Russia could see NATO was not serious about its own defense, which made invading Ukraine far less intimidating.”

Underfunding defense budgets over a long period has multiple consequences – from lower troop numbers to poorly maintained equipment. But in the context of the war in Ukraine, limited and fast-dwindling ammunition stocks for the West to give to Kyiv has possibly been the most damaging.

“One thing that’s absolutely certain, if allies in Europe had met their 2% target – in particular, Germany – there would be a lot more weapons to give Ukraine without weakening the defense of their own countries respectively,” John Herbst, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, told CNN.

“Maybe if there were more weapons there would have been more of a deterrent to Putin,” he added.

It’s worth noting that it was not NATO’s job to protect Ukraine from invasion. Ukraine is not a NATO member and only formally declared its intention to join after the 2022 invasion.

However, the nature of NATO allies’ support for Ukraine – much of it direct military support – has exposed the vulnerability that years of underfunding has caused the alliance.

It’s not just that low military spending means low weapon stocks. A lack of demand means no incentive for private arms companies to invest in weapons manufacturing. In other words, you can have all the money in the world, but you cannot buy weapons that don’t exist. Meanwhile, Russia has massively expanded its own munitions production and has turned to Western adversaries including North Korea and Iran for additional weapons.

“There is no question the US and its allies do not have arms industries producing enough equipment for a major-power war,” said Herbst.

This has been acknowledged by NATO’s members. More allies than ever before are now meeting the 2% minimum spending commitment, and that is set to increase ahead of a summit in Washington in May – an event to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO’s creation on April 4, 1949.

NATO officials, often cynical, skeptical types, are unusually optimistic that the governments of so many are taking spending – particularly on arms procurement – more seriously.

The bloc’s leader, Jens Stoltenberg, said in February that 18 of its members were expected to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense this year.

Billions of dollars have been pledged, as well as schemes by individual nations to purchase and ramp up the production of ammunition and weapons. But most of the plans being drawn up by officials are in reality longer-term – it takes time to build factories and train staff.

This means that the challenge in front of NATO allies now is not just how can they meet the demand for weapons coming from Ukraine, but how do they reverse years of underfunding their own defenses?

European diplomats, particularly from Baltic countries, often describe the need not merely to fill up the shed that’s been emptied by giving weapons to Ukraine, but to also build a new shed that, too, needs its own weapons.

So even with the new spending pledges, it will still take a very long time to get where most European defense officials now acknowledge ammunition stocks should be.

One person acutely aware of this is Stoltenberg himself. Speaking Wednesday in Brussels ahead of a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, the secretary general said NATO “could assume more responsibility for coordinating military equipment and training for Ukraine.” Stoltenberg added that allies should “commit to more support for Ukraine and rely less on voluntary contributions.”

“We must have an assured, reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine,” he said.

Peter Ricketts, the UK’s former ambassador to NATO, told CNN that while more countries meeting the 2% mark is undeniably a good thing, “new money takes years to turn into capability. And it’s not enough now that the threat has increased in Europe. Especially given the risk of a future Trump presidency drawing back from Europe.”

The situation NATO finds itself in at 75 is unusual. On one hand, it can be argued that things are rosier than they have been for a long time. Countries are relatively united on what needs to be done in the long term and are broadly willing to pay for it. New initiatives on things like rapid response forces, training exercises and troop deployments are being coordinated centrally.

The alliance has even expanded, with both Finland and Sweden joining its ranks in the past year.

Douglas Lute, former US ambassador to NATO, told CNN: “I think the glass is half full, rather than half empty. I think on a map of the world, the NATO territorial border is the brightest red line, and allies are making it brighter through new initiatives. If you ask if NATO is strong enough to deter Putin from a direct attack, I’d say we should judge his capabilities and his intentions. The fact is Putin has respected NATO’s borders.”

However, old resentments linger. Some allies don’t trust that others will be quite so generous with defense spending if the Russia-Ukraine war were to end. And officials from countries that have historically met their commitments still view their counterparts as freeloaders who might not learn the lessons of this war, on their doorstep.

Source: CNN

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NATO developments

NATO foreign ministers will meet on Wednesday to discuss how to put military support for Ukraine on a long-term footing, including a proposal for a €100bn ($107bn) five-year fund and a plan seen as a way to “Trump-proof” aid for Kyiv. The proposals by NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg would give the western alliance a more direct role in coordinating the supply of arms, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine, diplomats say. The plans will be discussed during a two-day meeting in Brussels that will celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO and prepare for a summit of alliance leaders in Washington in July.

Other developments include:

• NATO foreign ministers met for a second day in Brussels, marking the 75th anniversary of the alliance’s founding.

• The ministers held talks with Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister. Kuleba stressed Ukraine’s call for more air defences. “Saving Ukrainian lives, saving Ukrainian economy, saving Ukrainian cities depends on the availability of Patriots and other air defence systems in Ukraine. He also emphasised that “providing Patriots depends on allies, they have plenty of them.”

• The Ukrainian minister also said he spoke with the American secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and “urged our American partners to find ways to provide additional ‘Patriot’ air defence systems as soon as possible.”

• The German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said that “we heard loud and clear what the foreign minister said” and that Berlin will ask allies to check if they can provide more air defences.

• Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister, has said that “without significant deliveries of weapons and real security guarantees the glorious narrative of unity and solidarity with Ukraine is wearing thin and rapidly approaching cynicism.”  The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, also reiterated the need for air defences. “Strengthening Ukraine’s air defence capabilities directly translates into saving lives,” he said on social media.

• After the ministers’ meeting, Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-general, emphasised that more needs to be done to help Ukraine.  Allies will now go back and look into their inventories to see if there’s any way to provide more air defence systems.

• The Nato chief also said allies should be able to establish a stronger, more robust framework for long-term support for Ukraine, so aid can continue on a more predictable basis.

Source: The Guardian

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Forthcoming support

• The UK foreign secretary will travel to the US next week and urge politicians to approve a $60bn package of aid for Ukraine which Republicans have held up for months. David Cameron said on X (formerly Twitter): “Britain has put forward its money for Ukraine this year, so has the European Union. America needs to do it.”

• Japan has announced new sanctions against Russia, banning exports of 164 goods to Russia including automobile engine oil and optical equipment. The trade ministry is also expected to ban imports of Russian nonindustrial diamonds.

Source: The Guardian

HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE

Angelus - April 7, 2024 (Sunday)

Let us not cease to pray for peace, a just and lasting peace, especially for tormented Ukraine and for Palestine and Israel. May the Spirit of the Risen Lord enlighten and sustain all those who work to decrease the tension and encourage gestures that make negotiations possible. May the Lord give leaders the capacity to pause a little in order to deliberate, to negotiate.

Non venga meno la nostra preghiera per la pace, una pace giusta e duratura, in particolare per la martoriata Ucraina e per la Palestina e Israele. Lo Spirito del Signore risorto illumini e sostenga quanti lavorano per diminuire la tensione e favorire gesti che rendano possibili i negoziati. Che il Signore dia ai dirigenti la capacità di fermarsi un po’ per trattare, per negoziare.

General Audience - April 3, 2024

And let us not forget martyred Ukraine; so many dead! I am holding in my hands a rosary and a copy of the New Testament left behind by a soldier who died in the war. This young man was named Oleksandr — Alexander — and he was 23 years old. Alexander read the New Testament and the Psalms, and in the Book of Psalms, he had underlined Psalm 130: “Out of the depths I cry to thee, O Lord! Lord, hear my voice!”. This 23-year-old young man died in Avdiïvka, in the war. He had his life ahead of him. And this is his rosary and his New Testament, which he read and [with which he] prayed. I would like all of us to take a moment of silence, to think about this young man and many others like him who have died in this madness of war. War always destroys! Let us think of them, and let us pray.

E non dimentichiamo la martoriata Ucraina, tanti morti! Ho nelle mani un rosario e un libro del Nuovo Testamento lasciato da un soldato morto nella guerra. Questo ragazzo si chiamava Oleksandr, Alessandro, 23 anni. Alessandro leggeva il Nuovo Testamento e i Salmi e aveva sottolineato, nel Libro dei Salmi, il salmo 129: “Dal profondo a te grido, o Signore; Signore, ascolta la mia voce”. Questo ragazzo di 23 anni è morto ad Avdiïvka, nella guerra. Ha lasciato davanti una vita. E questo è il suo rosario e il suo Nuovo Testamento, che lui leggeva e pregava. Io vorrei fare in questo momento un po’ di silenzio, tutti, pensando a questo ragazzo e a tanti altri come lui, morti in questa pazzia della guerra. La guerra distrugge sempre! Pensiamo a loro e preghiamo.

NEWS

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