Weekly Update #128
August 12, 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay

Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe

558,300

Last updated April 1 2024

Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally

6,579,700

Last updated July 15 2024

Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities

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Support for placing Ukrainian war refugees in Latvia has decreased

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Rait Custom Research Baltic on behalf of the State Chancellery, the support of Latvian residents for accepting Ukrainian war refugees in Latvia has decreased.

The survey data shows that less than half, or 48%, of Latvian residents aged 18 to 75 support accepting Ukrainian war refugees in Latvia. In March 2024, 60.1% of residents supported accepting Ukrainian refugees in Latvia, while in November last year this figure was 52%, which indicates that after the surge in March, support has statistically significantly decreased and is now at the same level as six months ago, according to survey participants.

However, compared to the March poll, the share of the population in favor of Ukraine joining NATO has remained stable: 45% in June and 46% in March.

The same level of support is observed for Ukraine's accession to the European Union. In June, 45% of respondents supported Ukraine's accession to the EU, while in March - 46%.

The survey involved 1,005 respondents, permanent residents of Latvia aged 18-75.

Source: Delfi

THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE

Humanitarian Situation Update (August 8, 2024)

The number of residents leaving front-line communities in Donetska Oblast in search of safety in other parts of the country increases as the security situation in the oblast continues to deteriorate. Those who remain face increased humanitarian needs, while humanitarian access to the most affected communities is shrinking because of the prevailing security situation.

In Donetska Oblast, front-line communities suffered large-scale damage to housing and critical civilian infrastructure, which disrupted access to electricity, water and gas supply. According to Ukraine's Ministry of Energy, as of 8 August, nearly 80,000 consumers – families, social facilities and business entities – in some 135 towns and villages in the Ukraine-controlled areas of the oblast had no electricity.

According to local authorities, in August, on average, the oblast suffered between 2,500 and 5,000 strikes and attacks every day. In July, the Human Rights Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (HRMMU) verified 370 civilian casualties, including 269 in Ukraine-controlled parts and over 100 in the occupied areas of Donetska Oblast, compared to 224 and 64, respectively, in June. At least five medical and 19 education facilities were damaged or destroyed on both sides of the front line in July, according to the HRMMU. The towns of Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk and Toretsk have come under repeated attacks since the start of August, which killed and injured civilians and damaged homes, schools and health facilities.

According to the Government of Ukraine's data, out of 450,000 residents remaining in the Ukraine-controlled parts of the oblast as of early August, some 62,500 people, including nearly 3,400 children, live in areas of active hostilities.

Civilians in front-line communities, many of whom are older people and reluctant to leave their homes despite increasing risks, are struggling to meet their basic needs. Services have been disrupted in some communities for months. Many local shops and markets are no longer operational, while humanitarian access to these communities is impeded due to the intensity of shelling and hostilities.

According to a Rapid Needs Assessment of the humanitarian situation in Toretsk Town conducted by the International Organization for Migration in mid-July, the town's population had dropped almost ten-fold since February 2022. The overwhelming majority of remaining residents were people aged 60 or older, and approximately two-fifths reportedly had a disability. The town had no functional health facilities or key public services, including electricity, heating, wastewater and waste management systems and cash distribution points. All residential buildings had been damaged, with residents spending most of their time in basement shelters.

Since the beginning of August, the number of people leaving front-line communities, either through their own means or as part of the government-led or volunteer-supported evacuations, has increased to over 600 per day. Between 1 and 6 August, nearly 4,700 people left the oblast in search of safety. In the last two months, Government-led evacuations from Donetska Oblast, primarily by railway, were organized mainly to Rivnenska and Volynska oblasts. Partners on the ground reported that people leaving Donetska Oblast through their own means also go to Lvivska Oblast and other parts of the country. Further north, in Sumska Oblast, on 7 August, local authorities announced civilians' mandatory evacuation locations from 23 towns and villages in 6 communities in the oblast due to increased hostilities on the border with the Russian Federation. The Krasnopillia border crossing for people entering Ukraine from the Russian Federation was closed. According to the authorities, around 6,000 people, including 425 children, are estimated to live in these areas. The most vulnerable – older people, people with disabilities and families with children – require support to leave the areas and on the way to their intended destinations. Partners on the ground note that residents are also leaving using their own means of transport.

Temporary accommodation and livelihood support are among the key needs of recently displaced people.

Source: OCHA

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Humanitarian Response Update (August 8, 2024)

Complementing the efforts of local authorities and responders, aid organizations have been delivering humanitarian assistance to the front-line communities in Donetska Oblast and supporting people affected, despite access constraints. On 31 July, an inter-agency convoy led by the Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine, Denise Brown, delivered nearly 10 tons of medical supplies and hygiene kits to a front-line community in Donetska Oblast. The supplies were provided by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) for the most vulnerable people, including older people and people with disabilities, to meet their basic needs and protect their dignity.

Aid workers are also assisting displaced people on the move. Transit centres are operational in Donetska Oblast and neighbouring Dnipropetrovska Oblast, where those displaced can temporarily stay before moving further.

Several humanitarian partners of the Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster provided food support. In particular, the World Food Programme (WFP) provided ready-to-eat meals for evacuees to take on the train. The INGO World Central Kitchen regularly provided sandwiches or soup for evacuees, while the Rinat Akhmetov Foundation delivered food packages.

Furthermore, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Cluster partners, including INGO Solidarités International and LUkraine, provided hygiene supplies and hygiene traveller kits. NNGO East-SOS rendered protection services, particularly legal support for the displaced people.

Furthermore, Cash Working Group partners – UNICEF and NNGO Angels of Salvation – provided multi-purpose cash assistance amounting to UAH10,800 (US$260) per person for families with children. In July alone, humanitarian partners disbursed over US$1 million in multi-purpose cash assistance to about 2,500 residents of 22 front-line hromadas in Donetska Oblast.

Child Protection and Education partners – UNICEF and the INGO International Rescue Committee – distributed backpacks containing school materials, power banks and flashlights for schoolchildren.

Humanitarians also support newly displaced people in hosting communities in coordination with local authorities. For instance, in Rivnenska and Volynska oblasts, which receive evacuation trains from Donetska Oblast, aid workers met evacuees to provide immediate assistance. They distributed meals and potable water and provided medical assistance and mental health and psychosocial support. According to the local authorities, in July alone, Volynska Oblast accommodated over 260 displaced people from Donetska Oblast, including 60 children. Local authorities and partners also provided aid to people in need of assistance in specialized care institutions.

Source: OCHA

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OCHA Financial Tracking Service

STATUS OF THE CONFLICT

Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast has allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily seize the battlefield initiative in one area of the frontline and contest Russia's theater-wide initiative. Russia's possession of the theater-wide initiative since November 2023 has allowed Russia to determine the location, time, scale, and requirements of fighting in Ukraine and forced Ukraine to expend materiel and manpower in reactive defensive operations. The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast, however, has forced the Kremlin and Russian military command to react and redeploy forces and means to the sector where Ukrainian forces have launched attacks. Russian forces, however, were notably not conducting active operations in Kursk Oblast. Russia has been leveraging its possession of the theater-wide initiative to pressure Ukraine and attempt to prevent Ukrainian forces from accumulating manpower and materiel for future counteroffensive operations while determining a tempo of fighting that would allow Russian forces to sustain consistent ongoing offensive operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command likely incorrectly assessed that Ukraine lacked the capability to contest the initiative, and Ukraine's ability to achieve operational surprise and contest the theater-wide initiative is challenging the operational and strategic assumptions underpinning current Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast and further possible Ukrainian cross-border incursions force a decision point on the Kremlin and the Russian military command about whether to view the thousand-kilometer-long international border with northeastern Ukraine as a legitimate frontline that Russia must defend instead of a dormant area of the theater as they have treated it since Fall 2022. Moscow’s response may require the Russian military command to consider the manpower and materiel requirements for defending the international border as part of its theater-wide campaign design and can therefore impose long-term operational planning constraints that Russia previously did not face. The Russian military command has essentially treated the international border with northeastern Ukraine as the dormant front of the theater following the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts in Spring 2022 and the Ukrainian liberation of significant territory in Kharkiv Oblast in Fall 2022. Russian and Ukrainian forces have conducted routine sabotage and reconnaissance activities, indirect fire, and cross-border strikes along the border since Fall 2022, but none of this routine activity has appeared to generate wider Russian operational concerns for defending Russian territory in the area. Russia has sought to use the threat of cross-border incursions to draw and fix Ukrainian forces along the border by concentrating rear elements in the border zone, but Ukrainian concentrations in the area do not appear to have generated such responses among Russian forces. The Russian military activated part of this "dormant frontline" when it launched the offensive operation into northern Kharkiv Oblast in early May 2024 — a Russian effort to extend the frontline further into northeastern Ukraine to draw and fix Ukrainian forces along the border in hopes of weakening the overall Ukrainian frontline in aggregate.

Previous notable incursions into Russia did not change the Kremlin's perception of the international border area, but the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast will force the Kremlin to make a decision. All Russian pro-Ukrainian forces have conducted several cross-border raids into Russia since Fall 2022, but the Kremlin and the Russian military command resisted calls for redeploying forces to protect the border at that time. Russian President Vladimir Putin assessed at that time that those limited raids posed no medium- to long-term threat to Russian territory and that redeployments to the international border would be a less effective allocation of resources that could otherwise support large-scale defensive and offensive operations in Ukraine. The current Ukrainian incursion, however, poses significant threats to Russian military operations in Ukraine and Putin's regime stability and demands a response. The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast will likely expand the Kremlin's consideration for what type of Ukrainian operations are possible along the border. Russia's prolonged treatment of the international border area as a dormant frontline is a strategic failure in imagination.

Russia's treatment of the international border area as a dormant front has given Russia more flexibility to accumulate and commit manpower and material to military operations in Ukraine. Russia has spent considerable resources to build fortifications along the international border area but has not allocated the manpower and materiel to significantly man and defend those fortifications. Sparsely manned and equipped border fortifications proved insufficient at preventing Ukrainian gains at the outset of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, and the Russian military command will likely conclude that further manpower and equipment commitments to the international border will be required to effectively leverage fortified positions to prevent possible future Ukrainian cross-border incursions and deter larger Ukrainian incursion efforts in the long-term. This conclusion will narrow the flexibility Russia has enjoyed in committing manpower and materiel to its ongoing offensive efforts in Ukraine, and the Russian military command will have to consider the requirements for border defense when determining what resources it can allocate to future large-scale offensive and defensive efforts in Ukraine.

Source: ISW

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Ukraine’s surprise attack into Russia ups ante for Putin

The Ukrainian attack, the first from a foreign nation on Russia’s European soil since World War II, has set off an emergency in the Kursk region bordering Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy province.

Ukrainian troops and armored vehicles have advanced at least 20 miles and are continuing to press deeper into Kursk on the fourth day of battle, capturing dozens of Russian border guards, taking several towns and surrounding the city of Sudzha, where fighting continues.

The surprise attack has infuriated Russian President Vladimir Putin, who called the incursion a “major provocation,” sparking fears of a potential Kremlin escalation not only in the war against Ukraine, but also with the U.S., the primary supporter of Kyiv.

Although it’s unclear how the offensive will proceed, Ukraine has successfully changed the narrative of the war by breaking into Russia, said Alena Kudzko, vice president for policy and programming at the think tank GLOBSEC.

U.S. officials have supported Ukraine’s attack. Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh on Thursday told reporters Kursk was consistent with Washington’s policy to defend against Russian border attacks and not an escalation in the war.

“We don’t feel like this is escalatory,” she said. “Ukraine is doing what it needs to do to be successful on the battlefield.”

Source: The Hill

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Putin does not control anything - the head of the defense committee of the Bundestag about the events near Kursk

According to the head of the defense committee of the Bundestag, Markus Faber, the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation is going better than expected, and this is a reason to talk about increasing the number of German Leopard 2 tanks for the Defense Forces.

"The Ukrainian offensive against the occupation troops near Kursk is going better than expected. This forces the aggressor to withdraw a significant number of troops from the front in the east. This eases tensions there."

Faber added that this is an excuse to talk about providing more German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukrainian defenders.

In addition, the German official believes that the progress of the Ukrainians in the Kursk region demonstrates to the Russian population that "their dictator does not control anything", and the military leadership is "overloaded" by this.

"A good basis for peace negotiations with Putin's successor. And for negotiations with Putin before the International Criminal Court."

Faber said that he does not consider the probable use of German weapons in the battles in the Kursk region of Russia to be a problem.

In addition, Faber considers the offensive of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia to be legitimate and such that it can lead the Kremlin to end the war against Ukraine.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda

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Russians send youth groups from temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to Kursk Oblast

Ukraine's National Resistance Center (NRC) has reported that the Russians and their collaborators in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine have been forming youth groups to send them to Russia's Kursk Oblast.

"Another Kremlin propaganda campaign in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Youth groups are being formed here to go to the territory of the Kursk region.

Under the lenses of video cameras, 'volunteers' are packed into buses and sent to allegedly help the affected Kurians."

The NRC noted that Serhii Dobrovolskyi, local collaborator and head of the regional organisation Young Republic, stated that at least a hundred young people from the temporarily occupied Donetsk Oblast are planned to be sent to Russia.

"However, the Kremlin henchman complains that the plan has not yet been implemented."

"On the temporarily occupied territories, the invaders hold small rallies where state employees and Russian touring artists imitate support for the population of the Kursk region on camera."

More than 76,000 civilians were evacuated from areas near the Russian-Ukrainian border in Kursk Oblast, according to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda

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Ukraine and Russia trade claims over nuclear plant fire

Ukraine and Russia have blamed each other after a fire broke out at the giant Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Sunday.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces had started a fire at the plant, which has been occupied by Moscow's forces for more than two years. Zaporizhzhia's Kremlin-installed governor said Ukrainian shelling caused the blaze.

The UN's nuclear watchdog said it saw "strong dark smoke" coming from the facility - but said there was "no impact reported" for nuclear safety.

The development comes as Ukrainian troops have advanced up to 30km inside Russia, in the deepest and most significant incursion since Moscow began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

On Sunday, Yevgeny Balitsky, the Kremlin-installed governor of Zaporizhzhia, said a fire had broken out at the cooling towers of the power plant.

He blamed Ukrainian shelling, but asked for "calm", adding that there had been no radiation spike around the plant.

Mr Zelensky also said there was no detected radiation spike or danger of a nuclear leak - but accused Russia of purposefully starting the fire in an attempt to "blackmail" Kyiv.

In the early hours of Monday, Vladimir Rogov, another Kremlin-installed official, said the fire had been "completely extinguished" in a Telegram post.

The nuclear power plant has been under the control of Russian troops and officials since 2022. It has not produced power in more than two years and all six reactors have been in cold shutdown since April.

In a statement posted on X, UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said its experts had witnessed "strong dark smoke" coming from the plant following "multiple explosions".

It said the plant had reported "an alleged drone attack" on one of the cooling towers at the site.

"No impact has been reported for nuclear safety," the IAEA added.

In a later statement, the IAEA said it had requested "immediate access to the cooling tower to assess the damage".

Source: BBC

UPDATES ON INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

US announces $125M military aid package for Ukraine

The United States announced on Friday that it would be sending a $125 million military aid package that includes Stinger missiles and anti-armor systems to Ukraine following multiple civilian deaths from a fresh Russian attack.

The package will be the 10th sent to Ukraine since U.S. President Joe Biden signed the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act in April. The U.S. has approved $175 billion to be sent to Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in February 2022, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, a foreign policy research group in New York.

The announcement of the package came hours after a Russian missile hit a supermarket in Kostiantynivka, Ukraine, killing at least 14 people and wounding 44. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on the social media platform X that “Russia will be responsible for this terror.” Russia has yet to comment on the attack.

Emergency services were working to find survivors who might have been buried under the rubble from the attack, according to Zelenskyy. Damage was reported to shops, homes, cars and a post office in the area.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken released a statement explaining the contents and purpose of the military aid package. “This $125 million package of support, provided under Presidential Drawdown Authority, includes air defense interceptors, munitions for rocket systems and artillery, multimission radars and anti-tank weapons that will help Ukraine protect its troops, its people and its cities from Russian attacks and reinforce its capabilities across the front lines,” it read.

The statement reaffirmed the United States’ support of Ukraine and said the U.S. “will deploy this new assistance as quickly as possible to bolster Ukraine’s defense of its territory and its people.”

In a post on X, Zelenskyy thanked Biden and the U.S. for the package.

“It is critical that the United States continues to take strong steps and demonstrate leadership in protecting Ukrainian freedom and European stability,” he wrote. “We appreciate the United States' support from the very first days of Russia's full-scale invasion, which has already allowed us to save many lives together.”

Russia has said it is facing a cross-border Ukrainian assault and declared a “federal-level” emergency Friday in its Kursk region. Russian and Ukrainian forces clashed in this area for a fourth consecutive day, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry.

Source: Voice of America

HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE

General Audience - August 7, 2024

I ask you to join in my prayer also for martyred Ukraine, Myanmar, Sudan: may these war-torn populations soon find the peace for which they yearn.

Vi chiedo di unirvi alla mia preghiera anche per la martoriata Ucraina, il Myanmar, il Sudan: queste popolazioni così provate dalla guerra possano presto ritrovare la tanto desiderata pace.

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Angelus - August 11, 2024 (Sunday)

We have commemorated, in these days, the anniversary of the atomic bombing of the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. As we continue to commend to the Lord the victims of those events, and of all wars, let us renew our intense prayer for peace, especially for troubled Ukraine, the Middle East, Palestine, Israel, Sudan and Myanmar.

Abbiamo ricordato, in questi giorni, l’anniversario del bombardamento atomico delle città di Hiroshima e Nagasaki. Mentre continuiamo a raccomandare al Signore le vittime di quegli eventi e di tutte le guerre, rinnoviamo la nostra intensa preghiera per la pace, specialmente per la martoriata Ucraina, il Medio Oriente, Palestina, Israele, il Sudan e il Myanmar.

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