Weekly Update #135
September 30, 2024

General Figures

Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe 

6,154,000

Last updated September 24 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 

Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe

571,300

Last updated September 16 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 

Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally

6,725,300

Last updated September 24 2024

Estimated number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ukraine (as of Aug 2024)

3,669,000

Sources: Health Cluster, WHO, UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities

Looking forward, in 2025, UNHCR will continue to strengthen these community-based protection systems by leveraging and supporting the role and capacity of civil society, including community-based organizations, IDP Councils, other community initiatives and volunteers, so they continue to extend social support, enhance resilience and self-reliance capacities, strengthen social cohesion and improve access to rights and services, thereby contributing to a national system that protects.

Source: UNHCR

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Ukraine Protection Response Update #3 January to August 2024

The protection response by UNHCR and partners provides tailored support to those most in need, aims to strengthen inclusive national systems and services, and encourages the participation of internally displaced people (IDPs) and returnees in decisions that affect them.

The protection response complements, reinforces and strengthens the capacity of national protection services to serve the growing population in need, in line with the Memoranda of Understanding with Ministries and Oblast authorities.

In implementing their response, UNHCR work directly with communities, including our network of some 550 community-based organizations, some 100 IDP Councils and predominantly local NGO partners. In 2024, UNHCR works with 20 partners, of which 16 are national organizations.

From January to August 2024, UNHCR’s protection response has reached 440,921 people. Of those, 76 per cent are females. 33 per cent or over 147,000 are older people above the age of 60 years, while some 16 per cent are minors. Over 42,000 people supported are living with a disability.

UNHCR and partners promoted legal and policy developments through 90 advocacy and judicial interventions aimed at improving access to rights for forcibly displaced, stateless, and other war-affected people.

UNHCR and partners improved access to services for 29,700 people living in collective sites. Of those, over 10,000 are older people and 3,000 are people living with a disability. UNHCR, in collaboration with authorities and alongside the Office of the Ombudsperson, also advocates for the implementation of the safety audit recommendations and the implementation of the standards set out in Resolution 930 to enhance the protection of those living in the sites, specifically through GBV preventative action and greater disability inclusion.

Source: UNHCR

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Ukrainians crossing back to Ukraine: Regional analysis (April - June 2024)

IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) collected data on Ukrainian nationals and Third-Country Nationals (TCNs) who were crossing back to Ukraine from or through neighbouring countries (Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary) either temporarily or permanently. A total of 4,649 surveys were collected between April and June 2024 (Q2).

Among these, less than one per cent (n=17) were completed by TCNs, while the vast majority, comprising over 99 per cent (n=4,632), were completed by Ukrainian nationals. The survey focuses on the return intentions, duration of displacement, destinations, needs and assistance, expectations upon return, and experiences of unequal treatment of Ukrainian respondents.

Overall cumulative border crossing outflows from Slovakia, Poland, Romania and the Republic of Moldova and inflows to Ukraine are shown below in Figure 1 in the PDF, as collected by border guards in respective neighbouring countries from the beginning of the year until July 2024. Among all Ukrainian respondents crossing back during Q2 (n=4,632), including all types of movement, the primary countries of stay while abroad were Slovakia (21%), the Republic of Moldova (22%), Romania (17%) and Poland (3%). The remainder stayed in other countries in Europe (28%) and only six per cent spent their time in displacement outside Europe (mostly in Türkiye and Egypt, totaling 4% of respondents). These results are weighted based on border flow statistics.

OBLASTS OF INTENDED DESTINATION IN UKRAINE BY COUNTRY OF DEPARTURE, APRIL - JUNE 2024

Source: REACH

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WFP Ukraine Country Brief, August 2024

In Numbers

9,700 mt of food distributed

USD 9.7 million in cash-based transfers made

USD 266.1 million six months (September 2024 – February 2025) net funding requirements

1.6 million people assisted in August 2024

Operational Updates

WFP's cash-based assistance programs remain a critical lifeline for Ukrainians in need. In August, WFP successfully disbursed USD 9.7 million to almost 523,000 people through various cash transfer modalities, ensuring timely and reliable support. WFP also provided in-kind food assistance, reaching 1.6 million people, with both cash and food modalities.

Partnerships

During a meeting with the WFP delegation (Regional and Country Director), the Social Policy Minister expressed gratitude for WFP’s support to a joint initiative between the Ministry of Social Policy, WFP, and the Pension Fund of Ukraine, and discussed future collaborations. The initiative aims to assist pensioners residing in conflict zones who are receiving insufficient pensions assistance. The Minister emphasised the importance of modernising the social sector through digital solutions, such as the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere (UISSS), to enhance the delivery of assistance to vulnerable populations, including internally displaced persons. WFP’s Regional Director reaffirmed the organisation's commitment to support vulnerable people and expressed willingness to continue providing benefits and advancing digitalisation efforts in the social sector.

Accountability to Affected Populations

A new round of in-person training sessions on Protections from sexual exploitation and Abuse (PSEA) was launched. So far, 55 WFP cooperating partners and hotline staff members have participated in three training sessions.

Local Food Systems and Livelihood

WFP is supporting participating bakeries by providing additional equipment and supplies. Seven bakeries in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Mykolaiv regions have been equipped with generators to ensure uninterrupted operations during power outages.

Overall, 14 small bakeries operating across five regions—Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia—supplied a substantial 42 percent of WFP's monthly bread requirement.

Source: WFP

Hospital in Ukraine's Sumy hit by deadly double strike

A hospital in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy, not far from the Russian border, was targeted by two consecutive Russian attacks early on Saturday, according to Ukrainian authorities. 

Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said the first attack left one person dead. Then, while evacuations of patients and employees were ongoing, Russia launched another strike.    

"As of now, we know that eight people have been killed," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said later after the attack. "Eleven others have been wounded, and 113 patients have been evacuated from the hospital."   

Zelenskyy said the Russian attack on the hospital utilized "Shahed" drones, which are designed by Iran.   

The method of striking a target once and then hitting it again shortly thereafter as responders arrive is known as a "double tap."

Russia has been accused of carrying out "double tap" strikes not only during its invasion of Ukraine but also earlier during its intervention in the Syrian civil war. The method has been criticized as a war crime as it is aimed at civilians rushing to help the wounded. 

The city of Sumy is close to Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have been carrying out an incursion to distract the Russian military.

Source: DW

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Ukraine’s energy supply faces ‘sternest test yet’ as war grinds toward third winter

Ukraine’s electricity supply risks “severe disruptions” this winter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned, urging Kyiv’s allies to help address the country’s energy security.

Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with missiles and drones since its full-scale invasion in February 2022, but its bombardments have intensified recently, leaving the country in a precarious position as colder weather approaches.

“Ukraine’s energy system has made it through the past two winters thanks to the resilience, courage and ingenuity of its people and strong solidarity from its international partners,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement Thursday.

“But this winter will be, by far, its sternest test yet.”

Last month, Russia launched one of its largest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, firing more than 200 missiles and drones mainly at energy infrastructure. The onslaught caused power outages in several Ukrainian cities, affecting millions of households. Ukraine has also attacked Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Even before that attack by Moscow, more than two-thirds of Ukraine’s pre-war power generation capacity was offline because it had been destroyed, damaged or occupied by Russian forces, the IEA said in a report.

That has made rolling blackouts, which can also affect water supply, a feature of daily life in Ukraine.

The IEA estimates that Ukraine’s electricity supply shortfall could reach as much as 6 gigawatts this winter, or almost a third of expected peak demand and equivalent to the peak annual demand of Denmark, for example.

In its report, the agency outlines 10 measures that Ukraine and its allies should implement to tackle risks to the country’s energy supply. These include bolstering the physical and cyber security of critical energy infrastructure, expediting delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs, investing in energy efficiency and increasing the capacity to import electricity and natural gas from the European Union.

But, according to the report, effective air defense is “by far the most important” measure to safeguard the minimum level of energy services in Ukraine through the coming months.

Help from frozen Russian assets

To help Ukraine through the upcoming winter, the EU will disburse €160 million ($179 million) — including €60 million ($67 million) in humanitarian aid for shelters and heaters, and €100 million ($112 million) for repair works and renewable energy, with the larger amount flowing from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.

“It is only right that Russia pays for the destruction it caused,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters Thursday. She also noted that the EU had contributed at least €2 billion ($2.2 billion) toward Ukraine’s energy system since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.

Work currently underway to repair Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and connect its electricity grid to the rest of Europe will cover more than 25% of the country’s energy needs this winter, according to the president of the EU’s executive arm.

In one example of such efforts, a thermal power plant in Lithuania is being dismantled and shipped to Ukraine where it will be reassembled. The EU has also dispatched solar panels to 21 hospitals in the country, eight of which will be “fully equipped” by the winter, she said.

Source: CNN

Germany, France, and the United States announced several immediate and more long-term aid packages for Ukraine

The German Ministry of Development announced on September 25 that it will provide support to Ukraine this winter for heat and energy in a package totaling around 70 million euros ($78.2 million). Germany will provide Ukrainian cities and municipalities with combined heat and power plants, boiler systems, generators, and solar-power systems to support communities that have been most affected by heat and electricity shortages resulting from heavy Russian strikes. The German Bundestag also announced on September 25 a 400 million euro ($447 million) increase in military funding for Ukraine to enable the purchase of additional air defense systems, tanks, drones, ammunition, and spare parts. French President Emmanuel Macron said during a meeting with Zelensky on September 25 that France will train and fully equip a Ukrainian brigade in the "near future."

Source: ISW

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As the Ukraine war enters a critical period, the EU moves ahead without the US

As the war in Ukraine enters a critical period, the European Union has decided it must take responsibility for what it sees as a security threat in its own neighborhood, and it’s preparing to tackle some of the financial burden, perhaps even without the United States.

The EU rarely moves ahead on international matters without the U.S., particularly involving major conflicts, but it hopes this decision will encourage others to come forward.

EU envoys have been working this week on a proposal to provide Ukraine with a loan package worth up to 35 billion euros ($39 billion).

“Crucially, this loan will flow straight into your national budget,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv last week. “It will provide you with significant and much-needed fiscal space. You will decide how best to use the funds, giving you maximum flexibility to meet your needs.”

Zelenskyy wants to buy weapons and bomb shelters and rebuild Ukraine’s shattered energy network as winter draws near.

Russian troops and an election close in

Almost 1,000 days since their full-scale invasion, Russian forces are advancing in the east. Ukraine’s army has a shaky hold on part of the Kursk region in Russia, which has provided a temporary morale boost. With casualties mounting, it remains outmanned and outgunned.

Politically, Zelenskyy hopes to secure support for a “victory plan” that might force Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. He’s trying to persuade U.S. President Joe Biden and other allies to help strengthen Ukraine’s hand in any future talks.

But a U.S. election looms, and polls forecast a close contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump, who has been critical of U.S. aid to Ukraine, said Wednesday that Zelenskyy should have made concessions to Putin before the invasion began in February 2022.

Most of the 27-nation EU fears a Putin victory would lead to deep uncertainty. Russia’s armed forces are depleted and currently incapable of another war, but the prospect of a future land grab in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland remains.

Reworking a G7 loan plan

The EU loans are part of a plan by the Group of Seven major industrialized nations to take advantage of interest earned on about $250 billion worth of frozen Russian assets, most of them held in Europe. These windfall profits are estimated at around $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion a year.

The profits underpin the G7 plan. The EU would give up $20 billion, the U.S. $20 billion, and Canada, Japan and the U.K. $10 billion together, for a combined total of $50 billion. The scheme expires at the end of the year, before the next U.S. president takes office.

Now, amid differences over how long the Russian asset freeze should be guaranteed, the EU has decided to go it alone. Its offer of up to $39 billion in loans accounts for almost the entirety of the U.S. share as well.

The U.S. wants to ensure that the assets are locked away for at least three years to guarantee the income. But EU member Hungary insists this should only happen in 6-month increments. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán styles himself as a peacemaker and is too close to Putin for many of his partners’ comfort.

The other 26 EU countries feel they must move now because time is running out.

An evolving alliance with the United States

With the U.S. election weeks away, the Europeans are wary of Trump’s unpredictability. They are testing scenarios to help protect themselves from the kind of battering, like tariff increases, that their economies received during his past presidency. But they also see the Democrats as more inward looking these days.

Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act left European leaders fuming over rules that favored American products. China and war in the Middle East are the foreign policy priorities of Democrat or Republican candidates alike, and for now the U.S. is in the grip of election campaign fever.

The EU hopes that Harris, if she is elected, would enter the loan program as previously planned and reduce the EU’s financial burden. But that remains an open question for now, and EU members say Ukraine’s position is too precarious to hesitate.

Pressing ahead on pressing needs

Helping Ukraine in military terms is a challenge for the Europeans. They could not do it alone, and cannot match the U.S. transport, logistics and equipment superiority, despite progress in ramping up their defense industries to supply arms and ammunition.

But the world’s biggest trading bloc does wield economic might. It has already given Ukraine about $132 billion since the full-scale invasion started. Within weeks it appears ready to provide tens of billions more, even though going it alone is not in the EU’s DNA.

The Biden administration announced Wednesday the U.S. will send Ukraine a major military aid package, including cluster bombs and an array of rockets, artillery and armored vehicles. A U.S. official also said billions of dollars more in assistance would arrive over the coming months.

Meanwhile, deliberations on the EU’s share of the G7 loan package will be high on the agenda of a summit of the bloc’s leaders in Brussels on Oct. 17-18.

Source: AP News

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President von der Leyen announces new EU support for Ukraine's energy security for the winter

New support for Ukraine’s energy security was announced by President von der Leyen last week.  The objectives of this support covers three key objectives:  Repair, Connect, Stabilize.

• Repair:  Restore power plants and deliver more equipment - covering 15% of Ukraine’s needs

• Connect  :  Increase EU electricity exports to cover 12% of Ukraine’s needs

• Stabilize:  Boost decentralised power production, including delivery of solar panels to hospitals

She announced that to support these three objectives, significant financial support will be forthcoming.  “Today I can announce that we will make an additional amount of close to 160 million euros available for this winter. This includes 60 million euros in humanitarian aid* - for shelters and heaters for example. As well as around 100 million euros for repair works and renewables.

At least €2 billion of support for energy security has already been provided to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, via the Ukraine Energy Support Fund and the Union Civil Protection Mechanism, among others. Now, close to €160 million are being made immediately available to face the consequences of the attacks on energy infrastructure. 

Source: EU ECHO