Weekly Update #141
November 11, 2024

General Figures

Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe 

6,191,800

Last updated October 15 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 

Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe

560,200

Last updated October 15 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 

Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally

6,752,000

Last updated October 15 2024

Estimated number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ukraine (as of Aug 2024)

3,669,000

Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities

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Humanitarian Situation Overview 

(as of 7 November 2024)

Daily aerial attacks and shelling by GoR forces prompted Government of Ukraine (GoU) authorities to issue mandatory evacuations orders in conflict-affected oblasts in October.

In Kharkiv Oblast’s Kupyansk Raion, local authorities announced the mandatory evacuation of children and their families residing in Kupyansk city and three adjacent communities, as well as neighboring Izium Raion’s Borova town on October 15. Approximately 7,000 people remained in areas under evacuation orders in Kupyansk Raion as of October 15; however, more than 2,100 people, including 145 children, have been evacuated from Kupyansk and Izium between October 15 and November 1, according to local media.

In addition to ongoing attacks, the Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster anticipates that winter-related needs and rising utility costs could also drive evacuees to collective sites in the coming months.1 Evacuees—often comprising older people and people living with disabilities and chronic illnesses—also require additional support such as health care. Meanwhile, collective centers receiving evacuees in oblasts across Ukraine may be inaccessible to people with limited mobility, according to the cluster. As of early October, relief actors were responding to the current level of need among evacuees arriving in regions throughout Ukraine; however, they have cited limited availability of supplies—such as bedding, food packages, and heaters—or funding to meet the needs of IDPs in the event of a surge in evacuations due to winter conditions or further movement of the front line.

Humanitarian Needs in Frontline Areas Increase Ahead of 2024/2025  Winter Season

Conflict-related damage, high population density, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities continue to drive significant risks of heightened humanitarian needs as the 2024/2025 winter season begins, particularly in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts, according to an assessment by an international nongovernmental organization (INGO).

Frontline areas of Kharkiv Raion and Donetsk’s Pokrovsk Raion experienced significant disruptions to water services, including damage to water pumping stations and water treatment facilities restricting the functionality of sanitation systems and the availability of safe drinking water. In addition, disruptions in electrical supply present barriers for winter heating in the three oblasts, increasing health-related risks for residents as temperatures continue to decline, the INGO reports.

Additionally, approximately 40 percent of the remaining 11,900 residents in Pokrovsk were completely without electricity as of late October, according to national media. Hostilities have alsoimpeded repair and restoration services, leading local authorities to issue warnings to residents that municipal electricity, gas, and water services are likely to be unavailable during the upcoming 2024/2025 winter season, exacerbating dire humanitarian conditions among already vulnerable populations.

Amid the ongoing hostilities and related constraints to humanitarian access, relief actors, including U.S. Government (USG) partners, continued to provide shelter and winter assistance to vulnerable populations across Ukraine in September. Shelter Cluster partners—including U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM) partner the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)—reached nearly 5,100 people with emergency shelter assistance and distributed construction materials to nearly 62,000 people in 19 oblasts during the month. In addition, as part of the humanitarian community’s winter response, cluster members distributed emergency winter items—such as bedding and blankets—to approximately 5,000 people. Additionally, relief organizations supported more than 20 health facilities throughout Ukraine between August and September to ensure uninterrupted health service delivery amid limited energy and heating availability. Relief actors donated generators to the health facilities, repaired and upgraded the heating systems, provided backup boilers, and installed units to serve as additional temporary health centers during the same period, according to the Health Cluster.

Source: USAID

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Resilience in action: how community-based organizations support war-affected people in Ukraine

Community-based organizations and various community initiatives play a vital role in Ukraine’s civil society, significantly contributing to the humanitarian response and recovery efforts amid the full-scale war.

These community-led efforts are diverse, responding directly to emerging local needs. They help people access social services, advocate for their rights and become more self-reliant. At the same time, such organizations and their activities contribute to social cohesion and inclusion, especially for the most vulnerable groups as well as internally displaced people who are striving to rebuild their lives in a new place. This not only fosters resilience, but also empowers communities to rebuild from within and contribute to Ukraine’s long-term recovery.

Some organizations offer direct support such as psychosocial counseling and prevention of gender-based violence, while others create spaces where people can connect as a community and receive necessary support.

Around a third of the organizations are tied to local IDP Councils, with over 200 led by or with participation of internally displaced people themselves. The leadership of the organizations reflects Ukraine’s diverse communities – many are led by women, Roma and other minority groups, LGBTQI+ people, people with disabilities, older people, and youth. This diversity helps ensure that all voices are heard, and no one is left behind.

UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, supports community-based organizations through various means, including institutional capacity-building training, material support, and financial grants, allowing communities to become more resilient while promoting social cohesion and improving access to services. Since the full-scale invasion started in 2022, the network of community-based organizations and community initiatives supported by UNHCR has grown significantly, now totaling 551 entities across the country. All organizations supported by UNHCR since 2022 can be found in this interactive map.

Healing through inclusion

“By including people with disabilities in everyday activities and creativity, we ensure they have access to opportunities and self-development in ways that are similar to their peers without disabilities**,”** says Mariya Chervak, the head of the NGO United by Love.

Based in Ivano-Frankivsk, United by Love was created to support social adaptation and inclusion of a diverse group, including local and internally displaced people with disabilities. It unites families with children, youth, and adults with autism spectrum disorders, Down’s syndrome, cerebral palsy and other physical or psychological disorders. As of September 2024, this inclusive group consists of 116 permanent members, ranging in age from 6 to 48, who regularly participate in various NGO activities.

The activities of United by Love were expanded following the full-scale invasion, and they now offer inclusive workshops in creative crafts such as painting, weaving and pottery, while also providing physical rehabilitation. And all activities of the organization are open to all participants. In addition, United by Love has recently started working with social entrepreneurship, helping the participants generate income and become more self-reliant by selling their produced goods in the NGO’s shop.

The organization provides support to more than 300 families with children or youth with disabilities. They are not only from Ivano-Frankivsk region, but come from all over Ukraine, including internally displaced people from Odesa, Chernihiv, Kherson and Kyiv regions.

One of the participants at the centre is 33-year-old Liubomyr. He joined the NGO group in 2023 – and through attending the inclusive workshops, he not only benefitted from socializing, but also developed his fine motor skills which led to a significant decrease in epileptic seizures, dropping from once a day to just once a month.

In 2023, United by Love received financial support from UNHCR to improve conditions at their centre, including the installation of an accessible bathroom, safety rails, and multiple pieces of equipment for creative workshops. With a new grant from UNHCR, received in the autumn of 2024, the NGO will invest in an updated heating system to prepare for the winter as well as renovation and equipping of some of the workshop rooms.

Lifelong learning

Challenging stereotypes about the old age population while empowering older people to lead active and social lives was the ambition, when Natalya Bondarenko, 62, founded her NGO, The Age of Happiness, back in 2017 in Sloviansk, Donetsk region.

The full-scale invasion forced Natalya, and her organization, to relocate from Donetsk to the Kirovohrad region – and here, the work of The Age of Happiness continues, empowering older people, be them internally displaced or from the local community, to embrace active, fulfilling and happy lives regardless of their age. The organization hosts media education classes, smartphone and computer training, art therapy, theatre play, and sports classes as well as psychological and legal support for community members.

“The main goal of my organization is to give people the reassurance that they have a future, that it is not over, that you have a life ahead. And you can use it to the fullest. Maybe you’ve never acted in a theatre, but now you’re on stage. You might have never studied English, and now you’re doing that too. Even mastering something as simple as a smartphone. Once a mystery, now you can navigate it, find medication, scan QR codes and video.

One of the frequent participants at The Age of Happiness is 60-year-old , who was displaced to Kirovohrad from her home in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region:

“Relocating left me feeling isolated and deeply unsettled. I needed something meaningful to restore a sense of purpose, and that’s when I found The Age of Happiness. Now, I participate in forum theatre and drawing classes — activities I had always wanted to try but never had time for because of family responsibilities. For the first time in years, I feel like I can finally do the things I love. Now, I have the space to nurture my own interests. This has brought me a deeper sense of fulfillment, and as a result, I can now in the midst of war offer emotional support to my children and friends. My own cup is full, allowing me to give more to those I love,” says Olena.

In 2024, UNHCR is supporting The Age of Happiness with a financial grant for two activities – the first focusing on empowering older people with essential digital skills, and the second one to provide mental health and psychosocial support through theatre activities.

Inspiring a vision for the future

Anastasiia Demianchuk, 25, is an intern-doctor and a young leader, engaged in two different youth organizations in Kivertsi, Volyn region, aiming to improve various aspects of youth life – from personal development and community engagement to well-being and safety. Anastasia is firstly heading the youth сentre Tandem, which specializes in cultivating leadership skills amongst young people, and she is also youth coordinator in the School of safety and survival of children «TIVER», which addresses safety issues among children, adolescents, and vulnerable groups.

“We started addressing safety concerns even before the pandemic and the full-scale war. Now, at this time, this topic is of critical importance,” says Anastasiia.

“While safety remains a top priority, I also see a need to equip young people with the necessary skills, allowing them to fully realize their potential as citizens and future leaders. That is why at some point I decided to create a space that encourages young people to actively participate in the public life of our city,” she adds.

The youth centre Tandem targets youth aged 14 to 35, and the primary objectives include advocating for the rights and freedoms of the younger population as well as creating a collaborative environment for community development. Key activities include cultivating leadership skills, promoting youth movements, implementing health and development programs, supporting cultural, sports, and educational initiatives, and engaging youth in public life.

“We aim to equip young people with practical skills that will truly benefit them in life. My hope is that through this, we not only help them grow and thrive, but also inspire a sense of hope and a vision for the future. I want to instill in them the desire to stay in Ukraine and be part of the movement to rebuild our country,” said Anastasiia.

In 2022, UNHCR supported the School of safety and survival of children «TIVER» with a financial grant to procure mannequins for the safety educational trainings. In 2024, both TIVER and Tandem are supported through UNHCR’s NGO partner Crimea SOS with capacity-building assistance, mentoring programs, and training sessions to enhance their impact.

Looking forward in 2025, UNHCR will continue to strengthen community-based protection systems in Ukraine by leveraging and supporting the role and capacity of civil society, including community-based organizations, IDP Councils, other community initiatives and volunteers.

Source: UNHCR

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IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

A new expert team from the International Atomic Energy Agency crossed the frontline this week to travel to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), replacing colleagues who have been monitoring nuclear safety and security at the site over the past several weeks as part of the IAEA’s non-stop efforts to help prevent a radiological accident during the military conflict.

It is the 25th IAEA Support and Assistance Mission stationed at the ZNPP since Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi set up an Agency presence there in September 2022. It was followed a few months later by the establishment of similar IAEA missions at Ukraine’s four other nuclear facilities – the Khmelnytskyy, Rivne and South Ukraine nuclear power plants (NPPs) and the Chornobyl site.

Over the past week, the teams at the three operating NPPs – which currently provide much of Ukraine’s electricity supplies – also rotated successfully.

In their daily work, the IAEA teams assess nuclear safety and security at the five sites, provide relevant information to the public and the international community, and deliver on a comprehensive programme of technical support and assistance to Ukraine that includes nuclear safety and security-related equipment as well as expertise and advice. The IAEA also provides medical assistance.

At the ZNPP, reactor unit 1 was returned to cold shutdown mode on 2 November after welding and radiography tests were successfully completed on one leaking impulse line, as reported last week. The plant continues to analyse the underlying cause of the defect, which had no direct nuclear safety impact.

Over the past week, the IAEA team members examined the current power configuration at the ZNPP, an area which remains a deep source of concern for nuclear safety and security. They were informed that two backup transformers had resumed operation after successful high voltage testing in late October, and that maintenance would be carried out on the four remaining backup transformers by the end of the year.

With the ZNPP, they have also discussed the plant’s preparations for the cold winter months, receiving confirmation that all six reactors will remain in cold shutdown, with required heating provided by on-site boilers instead.

The IAEA team also visited the reactor and containment building of unit 4 without identifying any nuclear safety and security issues, as well as some of the emergency diesel generators of units 1 and 5.

During the past week, the team has continued to hear frequent explosions, some distance away from the ZNPP. No damage to the ZNPP was reported.

The IAEA teams at the Khmelnytskyy, Rivne and South Ukraine NPPs and the Chornobyl site reported that nuclear safety and security is being maintained despite the effects of the ongoing conflict, including air raid alarms for several days over the past week.

Source: IAEA

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World Food Programme provides equipment to small bakeries to help keep bread production alive in frontline regions of Ukraine

As part of its efforts to support food production in Ukraine, and with funding from the European Union, The UN World Food Programme (WFP) is delivering US$870,000 worth of equipment to small bakeries located near the frontline.

WFP collaborates with local food producers to deliver food assistance in frontline regions. In September, these small bakeries supplied over 500,000 loaves of bread which WFP and its partners distributed to communities living near the frontline. More than 80% of WFP’s food assistance in Ukraine is bought from local suppliers.

In total WFP will deliver over 60 pieces of machinery to 14 small bakeries in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions. This includes 7 industrial generators, 11 rotary ovens, 6 dough kneading machines, as well as dough dividers, dough rounders and other similar tools.

“Bread is the lifeblood of Ukrainians- but small bakeries in frontline regions have been struggling to sustain their production due to the war and energy challenges,” said Richard Ragan, WFP Country Director in Ukraine. “By providing additional equipment, we not only support local businesses in the areas most affected by the war, but also make sure that people will have enough fresh bread this winter,” Ragan added.

Food assistance is one of many ways WFP supports Ukrainians affected by the war. WFP also provides cash assistance to vulnerable groups across the country, facilitates the export of Ukrainian food products, and works to safely de-mine and recover land in the Kharkiv region to help farmers restart agricultural work.

Source: WFP

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Rapid Needs Assessment Report (Donetska, Kharkivska and Khersonska oblasts) Kyiv, 2024

The Norwegian Aid Council released its Rapid Needs Assessment Report that focused on three oblasts.  Below are the key findings.

• After February 24, 2022, there was a notable decline in the populations of Donetska, Kharkivska, and Khersonska oblasts. These areas have become major hosts for IDPs, with up to 30% of the population being IDPs as of February 2024, largely due to ongoing intra-regional displacement.   Concurrently, these oblasts have been subject to temporary occupations, intense combat operations, and frequent shelling, prompting the evacuation of residents, particularly children. Consequently, there has been a significant decrease in the proportion of minors and a notable increase in the elderly population, comprising roughly one-third to half of all residents, the majority of whom are over 60 years old. Survey data indicates that in addition to pensioners, many families include individuals with chronic illnesses requiring continuous care, people with disabilities, individuals affected by shelling or occupation, and those with mental and behavioral disorders, thereby exacerbating the vulnerability of families amid wartime.

• In addition to these socio-demographic shifts, the full-scale Russian war against Ukraine has inflicted damages upon residential buildings, medical infrastructure, and the environment, posing severe threats to the health and lives of residents. However, survey findings suggest that participants often lack a comprehensive understanding of the risks associated with explosive ordnance (EO). Even when there is a need for additional information on related topics, it is not prioritized, despite significant contact between participants or residents and EO. This oversight has, in some instances, led to fatal consequences due to unsafe practices and ignorance of EO risks.

• Despite efforts to restore damaged healthcare facilities (HCFs) by February 2024, access to healthcare for hromada residents remains limited, and in some cases, entirely unavailable. The unmet need for medical assistance and medications persists in most hromadas due to various factors such as the absence of local HCFs, transportation challenges hindering access to nearby facilities, ongoing shelling, or financial constraints impeding the affordability of services. Existing medical requests are not always highly specialized and could be addressed at the primary HCF level or through appropriate referrals to secondary ones. Given these challenges, the establishment of mobile teams emerges as a potential solution, offering primary healthcare services with provisions for transportation to HCFs for secondary or specialized care when necessary.

• A critical issue is the financial situation of the participants, as many struggle to cover daily needs. Following increased unemployment and worsening financial circumstances after February 24, 2022, various social benefits, targeted assistance from governmental or international organizations, and financial aid from friends or relatives have become primary income sources for surveyed participants. Despite a significant portion receiving financial assistance over the past year, the need for it remains a priority as of February 2024. Currently, only in isolated cases can existing hromada resources meet this need, highlighting the necessity for humanitarian project interventions. Financial aid recipients have been able to address diverse needs, from purchasing medications to acquiring construction materials for housing restoration, making cash assistance the most optimal means of meeting hromada needs. However, further investigation is required regarding the extent, frequency, and criteria for distributing such assistance.

• Another urgent need among surveyed hromadas is for personal hygiene items and household chemicals, which existing hromada resources cannot adequately supply. Clothing, footwear, and household appliances and items are also in demand but are largely inaccessible within the hromadas. Access to these goods is further hindered by participants’ limited financial resources, and can be covered by distribution of NFI or cash assistance by humanitarian projects.

• Among all forms of aid, food assistance is most prominent – nearly all surveyed participants received food packages over the past year, and as of February 2024, the available opportunities for distribution largely surpass the demand. However, feedback on the quality of these packages has been mixed; participants often note the monotony of contents, lacking variety such as 6 vegetables and fruits. Some participants appreciated receiving seeds and chickens or expressed a desire for such assistance, although it wasn’t included in the survey. Introducing these types of aid could address the short-term need for fresh produce and poultry, reducing the necessity to spend financial resources on them. Additionally, in the long term, it could contribute to agricultural recovery and provide residents with income-generating opportunities by selling surplus produce or poultry.

• In all analyzed hromadas, with the exception of one, there are no internationally-led humanitarian assistance projects, including programming to address GBV issues. Efforts to prevent and respond to such cases are mainly handled by social services and departments of city or rural councils. Instances of domestic or gender-based violence are sporadically reported, possibly due to mistrust of the police or social services, as well as fear of condemnation, publicity, and potential retaliation after reporting. GBV is not widely recognized among residents, as many respondents couldn’t provide definitive answers to survey questions on the topic and only occasionally reported known cases in their hromadas. Assistance for women affected by violence is either unavailable or service availability is unknown to residents. However, medical, psychological, legal assistance, and shelter services could be beneficial. Mobile teams could integrate psychological and legal assistance alongside medical aid. Given the regional context and residents’ reluctance to discuss domestic and gender-based violence, specialists providing services to potential survivors must possess sufficient skills and qualifications.

Source: NPA

Trump adviser says Ukraine focus must be peace not retaking territory

A senior adviser to president-elect Donald Trump says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in the war in Ukraine rather than winning back territory.

Bryan Lanza, a Republican party strategist, told the BBC the Trump administration would ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his version of a "realistic vision for peace".

"And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious," he said.

Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula in 2014. Eight years later, it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has occupied territory in the country's east. Trump has already spoken to Zelensky since winning the US election - the pair held a phone call on Wednesday with billionaire Elon Musk also taking part.

Trump has consistently said his priority is to end the war and stem the drain on US resources.

His Democrat opponents have accused him of cosying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin and say his approach to the war amounts to surrender for Ukraine and will endanger all of Europe.

Last month, Zelensky presented a "victory plan" to the Ukrainian parliament that included a refusal to trade Ukraine’s territories and sovereignty.

During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly said he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in a day”, but gave no details. A paper written by two of his former national security chiefs in May said the US should continue supplying weapons, but make the support conditional on Kyiv entering peace talks with Russia.

Ukraine should not give up its hopes of getting all of its territory back from Russian occupation, the paper said, but it should negotiate based on current front lines.

Mr Lanza did not mention areas of eastern Ukraine, but he said regaining Crimea from Russia was unrealistic and "not the goal of the United States".

"When Zelensky says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we've got news for President Zelensky: Crimea is gone," he told the BBC World Service’s Weekend programme.

"And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you're on your own."

Mr Lanza said he had tremendous respect for the Ukrainian people, describing them as having the hearts of lions. But he said the US priority was "peace and to stop the killing".

Countries have given to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.  "The reality on the ground is that the European nation states and President Biden did not give Ukraine the ability and the arms to win this war at the very beginning and they failed to lift the restrictions for Ukraine to win," he said.

Earlier this year, the US House of Representatives approved a $61bn (£49bn) package in military aid for Ukraine to help combat Russia's invasion.

The US has been the biggest arms supplier to Ukraine - between February 2022 and the end of June 2024, it delivered or committed weapons and equipment worth $55.5bn (£41.5bn), according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research organisation.

Source: BBC

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Russian view of Ukraine war after Trump election

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be assuming that US President-elect Donald Trump will defer to the Kremlin's interests and preferences without the Kremlin offering any concessions or benefits in return. Putin stated during his November 7 Valdai Club address that he is open to discussions meant to "restore" US-Russia relations but that the United States must initiate these negotiations, and implied that Russia will only consider a reset in US-Russia relations if the United States drops sanctions against Russia and ceases supporting Ukraine – terms that exclusively benefit Russia and offer no benefit to the United States.

Putin's proposed "new world order" emphasizes an interconnected international system without great powers or security blocs, but the Kremlin's actions contradict and undermine his proposed ideals and principles. Putin presented a six-point plan for his "new world order," which includes: an openness among states to interact with each other; the absence of universal dogmas; an accounting for all countries' perspectives when making global decisions; the rejection of security blocs that unite groups of states; "justice for all," including eradicating xenophobia and intolerance; and the "sovereign equality" of all states.

 Putin's proposal ignores the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to increase its power and influence in neighboring countries, including destabilization efforts in Moldova and Georgia; courting a group of anti-Western states such as North Korea, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and Iran; and conducting its illegal and unprovoked war of aggression in Ukraine.

Putin notably attempted to downplay Russia's burgeoning relationship with North Korea during his November 7 Valdai Club statements, likely in an effort to maintain some semblance of a relationship with South Korea and discourage South Korean support for Ukraine. 

Source: ISW

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Moscow targeted as Ukraine and Russia trade large drone attacks

Ukraine has carried out its biggest drone strike on Moscow since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian media said on Sunday, as the Kremlin launched its own record air attack over Ukraine.

Three airports in the Russian capital were temporarily closed and flights diverted. At least one person was injured. Russia said its air defences shot down 70 drones, nearly half of them in the skies above Moscow and the rest in western Russia.

The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said it successfully targeted an ammunition dump near the Russian city of Bryansk. Video showed multiple explosions coming from warehouses on the military site. Fires could be seen burning in the night sky.

 Ukrainian commentators said the strike on Moscow was in response to a massive Russian drone barrage directed at Kyiv on Thursday, soon after Donald Trump was elected as US president.

On Saturday and Sunday, Moscow sent over another wave of 145 drones, the largest number yet. There was damage to the Black Sea port of Odesa. Ukrainian officials said 62 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were downed and others lost en route.

Russia’s defence ministry said it had thwarted a “terrorist attack” on its territory using “airplane-type drones”. At least 36 planes were diverted, the country’s air transport agency said.

Both sides have developed innovative and increasingly sophisticated UAV programmes. Ukraine has established its own drone command and has improved the range of its systems, with attacks hundreds of kilometres into Russia. It has hit weapons storage units, oil processing facilities and enemy airstrips near the Arctic Circle, as well as naval vessels in the Caspian Sea.

Russia has begun using drones steered by fibre-optic cables in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops control a salient around the Russian town of Sudzha. The new drones cannot be jammed with regular electronic countermeasures.

Trump’s aides have previously sketched the outlines of a Russia-friendly “peace plan”. It would involve current frontlines being frozen, with the de facto loss by Ukraine of Crimea and much of the east of the country, plus a veto or a long-term pause on Kyiv’s Nato application. What Trump will actually propose in office remains unclear.

Source: The Guardian

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Intensified Russian aggression amidst huge losses

Russian forces reportedly lost almost 200 tanks, over 650 armored vehicles, and suffered an estimated 80,000 casualties in taking roughly 1,500 square kilometers during a period of intensified Russian offensive operations in September and October 2024. 

United Kingdom (UK) Defense Secretary John Healey told UK outlet The Telegraph on November 9 that UK defense intelligence estimates that Russian casualties "reached a new high" in October 2024 and that Russian forces suffered an average daily casualty rate of 1,345 troops per day or about 41,980 casualties in October 2024.

The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD), citing data from the Ukrainian General Staff, previously reported that Russian forces suffered a record high average daily casualty rate of 1,271 troops per day or about 38,130 casualties in September 2024. Russian forces have thus suffered an estimated 80,110 casualties over the last two months – roughly 20,000 more casualties than US forces suffered during almost 20 years of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 Data compiled by Oryx founder Jakub Janovsky indicates that Russian forces also lost 197 tanks, 661 armored personnel carriers (APCs), and 65 artillery systems larger than 100mm throughout the frontline in September and October 2024. Russian forces seized and recaptured a total of 1,517 square kilometers--an area less than a third the size of Delaware--throughout Ukraine and Kursk Oblast over the last two months in exchange for these losses.

Russian forces have intensified offensive operations near Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast and Selydove, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast over the last two months and have managed to advance at a marginally faster rate than Russian forces have advanced over the last two years.

The Russian military almost certainly cannot indefinitely sustain a daily casualty rate of over 1,200 people so long as Putin remains committed to avoiding another involuntary call-up of reservists. Even an involuntary reserve mobilization will not resolve the larger problem Putin apparently faces in finding enough people to work in Russia's industries while also feeding the front.

Source: ISW

Ukraine’s Capacity for Reconstruction to Advance with World Bank Support

The World Bank announced today a new $750 million support package for Supporting Reconstruction through Smart Fiscal Governanc(SURGE) that aims to assist the Government of Ukraine in improving its public investment management system at the central level and enhancing public financial management and fiscal governance at local and regional levels.

SURGE was developed using the World Bank’s Program for Results financing instrument that will support government initiatives to promote essential reforms, modernize revenue administration, and focus on creating a stronger connection between the transfers allocated to local governments and their needs for service delivery and reconstruction. The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine will be responsible for executing the program.

Additionally, to support the Government of Ukraine in implementing the SURGE program, a $10 million grant project, the Strengthening Government Capacity for Fiscal Reform Implementation (STRONG), was approved on November 4, 2024 that will help bridge skills gaps within the Ukrainian public administration, ensuring that Ukrainian authorities receive the technical assistance needed to design and execute institutional reforms aligned with the SURGE operation.

“It is remarkable to see that despite the devastating damage that Ukraine is experiencing during the third year of the war, all state institutions operate without disruptions, and key state services are provided to citizens in full capacity,” said Bob Saum, World Bank Country Director for Eastern Europe.“As the country moves forward, it will be necessary to develop its capacity for long term development, prepare for European Union accession, manage public infrastructure projects and public finances effectively, and enhance revenue administration.”

Financing for SURGE includes $450 million from the Japan-supported ADVANCE Ukraine trust fund, and a $300 million credit from the International Development Association (IDA) Special Program for Ukraine and Moldova Recovery. The program is results-based financing that can be scaled-up as additional funds become available.

The SURGE program is an integral part of the international support package for Ukraine to meet its financing needs through 2024. Other ongoing projects include emergency operations for health, education, transport, energy, housing, agriculture, and government programs for the private sector, which have mobilized partner resources through a flexible design to disburse funds quickly and can be scaled as necessary when additional financing becomes available.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, World Bank Group-mobilized support has enabled the Government of Ukraine to promote reforms and provide essential services that are reaching more than 15 million Ukrainians. The World Bank Group has facilitated more than $50 billion in financing to support Ukraine, including commitments and pledges from donors including: the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Canada, the Republic of Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Indonesia, Lithuania, Latvia, New Zealand, and Belgium.

Source: World Bank

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Germany and UNIDO deepen cooperation with a new project on the green industrial recovery of Ukraine

The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany (BMZ) is providing an additional EUR 2.4 million to support the project Green industrial recovery through community-based development in Ukraine as part of the UNIDO Green industrial recovery programme for Ukraine 2024-2028.

The signing ceremony took place in Vienna on 31 October and was attended by UNIDO Director General Gerd Müller, the Permanent Representative of Germany to UNIDO Rüdiger Reiner Bohn and Oleksandr Oborskyi from the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to UNIDO.

During the signing ceremony, Ambassador Bohn remarked: “Ukrainian communities have borne the direct impact of war and destruction, but they also hold the key to recovery. By working at the local level, we empower communities to shape their future. This project will provide critical support to local authorities, equipping them with the skills and resources needed to advance green industrial growth.”

Jointly implemented by the Government of Ukraine and UNIDO, the Green industrial recovery programme supports the development of a resilient, green and sustainable industrial sector in Ukraine. The programme focuses on creating opportunities for people, supporting businesses, attracting investment and fostering green economic growth. Through close collaboration with development and funding partners, including Germany, UNIDO delivers impactful projects across all thematic areas of its work through a strategic approach and integrated technical cooperation portfolio.

Director General Müller noted, “This project marks another milestone in UNIDO and Germany’s efforts to support sustainable industrial development and assist the people of Ukraine during these challenging times. UNIDO stands ready to join forces with our partners and provide Ukraine with the needed support for a green industrial recovery.”

Activities under the new project will build on the achievements of the initial BMZ-UNIDO cross-sectoral project phase, which established the analytical and regulatory framework for UNIDO’s operations in Ukraine. Within this cooperation, UNIDO conducted a comprehensive industrial diagnostic study of Ukraine, mapped the use of artificial intelligence across key sectors, developed a national framework of standards and technical regulations for Ukraine’s green reconstruction and applied a strategic approach for transitioning to a circular economy.

The new project will strengthen the capacity of public sector and governmental institutions at both national and municipal levels to support green industrial recovery. By engaging regional development coordinators, this initiative aims to enhance the role of Ukrainian communities as drivers of sustainable development and inclusive growth.

The project will also cooperate with the United Nations Environment Programme to support new joint sustainable development initiatives in the Carpathian region, as part of the joint declaration between UNIDO and the Secretariat of the Carpathian Convention signed in 2023.

Oleksandr Oborskyi, First Secretary of Ukraine’s Permanent Mission to UNIDO, concluded: “Faced with harsh realities, our people, entrepreneurs and industry leaders are determined for peace and swift recovery. We are grateful to Germany as a key donor to this project and to UNIDO for its active and consistent engagement in Ukraine, from the transfer of advanced technologies and the improvement of environmental performance among Ukrainian enterprises to empowering women and youth and creating jobs.”

Source: UNIDO

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Biden administration confirms surge of military aid to Kyiv will continue

The Biden administration has confirmed that the US will keep surging aid to Ukraine before Donald Trump becomes president in January. “That’s not going to change. We’re going to surge and get that out there to Ukraine. We understand how important it is to make sure they have what they need,” said Karine Jean-Pierre, White House spokesperson. A Guardian editorial on US aid to Ukraine says: “The Biden administration is reportedly attempting to expedite as much as $9bn worth of military aid, agreed but not yet transferred. This is far from straightforward, not least because weaponry and ammunition are still being produced and because the next president could stop agreed shipments. But it is essential.”

The Nato chief, Mark Rutte, said on Thursday that North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine posed a direct threat to the US, in a first effort to convince Donald Trump to keep backing Kyiv. “What we see more and more is that North Korea, Iran, China and of course Russia are working together, working together against Ukraine,” Rutte said. “At the same time, Russia has to pay for this, and one of the things they are doing is delivering technology to North Korea, which is now threatening in future the mainland of the US, continental Europe … I look forward to sit down with Donald Trump to discuss how we can face these threats collectively.”

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has demanded Ukraine cede swathes more territory in its east and south as a precondition to peace talks, while Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out giving up land in exchange for peace. 

Leaders at the Budapest meeting emphasised that with Trump becoming US president, Europe must take charge of its own security. Europe together has spent around $125bn on supporting Ukraine, while the US alone has coughed up more than $90bn, according to a tracker from the Kiel Institute.

Source: The Guardian

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UNHCR-KSrelief sign agreement to support vulnerable people in Ukraine

UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre (KSrelief) signed an agreement worth USD 10 million to boost UNHCR’s humanitarian response in support of internally displaced and crisis affected people in Ukraine.

The agreement was signed by KSrelief Assistant Supervisor General for Operations and Programs Eng. Ahmed bin Ali Al Baiz, and UNHCR Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees, Ms. Kelly T. Clements, at the KSrelief headquarters in Riyadh. Through this agreement UNHCR will help the most vulnerable families in Ukraine with shelter support and winterization assistance.

The UNHCR Deputy High Commissioner expressed appreciation for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s support in providing relief and development assistance to forcibly displaced people and their host communities and stated: “We are grateful for KSrelief's continuous and generous support contribution in assisting some of the most vulnerable people in Ukraine as they face increased hardship due to the ongoing hostilities. This contribution will strengthen our efforts to provide important support to displaced people and help them get through the cold winter season. Today, more than ever, conflicts continue to push forced displacement to record levels. During these challenging times, we must come together, and build on our abilities, and collective responsibility towards vulnerable people.”

The agreement was signed at the margins of a two-day visit by UNHCR Deputy High Commissioner to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where she highlighted the humanitarian challenges at the global and regional levels as well as the need to further political and diplomatic efforts for peace and continue humanitarian support to those most in need of it. The visit included high-level meetings with government officials in Saudi Arabia, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, King Salman Humanitarian Aid & Relief Centre (KSrelief) and the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD).

This contribution from King Salman Humanitarian Aid & Relief Centre (KSrelief) is vital for UNHCR to continue supporting people in Ukraine in light of the growing humanitarian needs and concerns about their ability to stay warm in the coming winter, due to extensive destruction of civilian and energy infrastructure across the country. With this vital support from KSrelief, UNHCR will provide winter building materials to help people insulate their homes and stay warm during the harsh winter months. and will offer other essential assistance to families, enabling them to stay in their homes and communities, strengthen their resilience, and rebuild their lives.

UNHCR has a long-standing partnership with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, evidenced by its support of UNHCR’s programs across several sectors, such as healthcare, education, shelter, infrastructure, and other sectors in various locations around the world, including Yemen, Afghanistan, Sudan, South Sudan, Chad, Jordan, Bangladesh, Iraq and Ukraine.

Source: UNHCR

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Press release from Ministry for Foreign Affairs SEK 110 million in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine

The Swedish Government is supporting Ukraine in a number of ways and has now decided on a new humanitarian support package of SEK 110 million. This support will primarily be used to meet the increased needs ahead of the winter.

The Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Benjamin Dousa accounced the Swedish Government’s decision to provide SEK 110 million to a number of humanitarian actors in Ukraine."

The fact that Russia has mined large areas of Ukraine is a major problem and threat to people’s safety and lives. Russia’s full-scale invasion has forced millions of people to flee their homes and live as internally displaced people. Sexual violence against women has increased in these already vulnerable groups.

In this context, Sweden’s assistance will also go to mine clearance, which unfortunately will be an impending problem for a long time to come “Sweden’s assistance to Ukraine is making a difference. We’re now helping to heat homes and clear the black soil from mines so that it can be used, feed people who are hungry and secure access to food,” says Aron Emilsson, foreign policy spokesperson for the Sweden Democrats.

Source: Govt. of Sweden