Weekly Update #145
December 9, 2024
Weekly Update #145
December 9, 2024
Embedded Files
December 9, 2024
REFUGEE SITUATION
REFUGEE SITUATION
(as of 18 November 2024)
(as of 18 November 2024)
General Figures
General Figures
Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe
6,225,700
Last updated November 18 2024
Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay
Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe
560,200
Last updated November 18 2024
Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay
Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally
6,785,900
Last updated November 18 2024
Estimated number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ukraine (as of Aug 2024)
3,669,000
Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities
THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE
THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE
ACAPS Thematic Report: Ukraine - Sumska oblast: anticipating developments and impacts through May 2025
ACAPS Thematic Report: Ukraine - Sumska oblast: anticipating developments and impacts through May 2025
Sumska oblast, in the north of Ukraine, has been facing a growing humanitarian crisis since August 2024. Conflict has escalated following Ukrainian forces’ crossborder incursion into the adjacent Kursk oblast in Russia, which began in the same month. Sustained high levels of Russian attacks have persisted since. Heightened insecurity has heavily constrained people’s access to basic and essential services, such as healthcare, protection services, banking, communications, and transport, particularly in the most crisis-affected areas – i.e. those within 20km of the border. More communities have received evacuation orders (generally voluntary but mandatory for children), with more than 38,500 people leaving unsafe areas in Sumska oblast by the end of October, most of whom had evacuated since August. At the same time, NGOs have faced additional access and operational constraints while responding to the impacts of the crisis.
In the next six months, the situation in Sumska oblast is expected to deteriorate further as hostilities in Kursk oblast and attacks on Sumska oblast persist. The sustained intensity of Russian attacks in Sumska oblast (as elsewhere, in particular across frontline oblasts) – in part enabled by Russia’s military production capabilities and supply rates of missiles and shells – will likely remain similar to current levels, but the impacts of such attacks will worsen with the gaps in Ukraine’s defence. Sumskyi and Shostynskyi raions, already the most affected by air attacks, will likely continue to be at the most risk of continued attacks and damage. Sustained Russian attacks, including on civilian infrastructure, will continue to drive converging humanitarian needs, such as shelter, health, livelihoods, and protection.
Sumska oblast also faces heavy damage to its energy infrastructure, made worse by the escalation since August 2024. Continued attacks on the energy infrastructure during winter will likely result in unplanned power outages, compounding the impact of pre-existing energy deficits during the cold season and severely disrupting access to essential services, such as heating services that rely on uninterrupted power. The lack of authorities’ capacity to respond in Sumska oblast will further contribute to widening persistent humanitarian gaps, particularly if winter conditions and insecurity disrupt responders’ access to affected areas. Unable to meet their needs elsewhere, displaced people are at risk of moving back to their homes, often in unsafe areas subject to evacuation orders.
Air and shelling attacks on Sumska oblast
between August–October 2024
ANTICIPATED SITUATION
Attacks on Sumska oblast can be expected to continue to drive displacement and evacuation, particularly from the 20km zone. Attacks on energy infrastructure and cold weather conditions will aggravate the existing hardships of the most affected groups in the winter period, and some humanitarian needs will remain unmet given persistent response gaps and constraints.
Active ground hostilities in Kursk, which intensified in November, are expected to persist. throughout the winter months, indicated by the reinforcement of Russian forces by North Korean troops.
In November, Ukrainian forces were authorised by international partners to use long-range weapons supplied by them in Kursk oblast, which may enable the Ukrainian military to attempt destroying military targets in Kursk, including a Shahed drone launch site used in attacks on energy infrastructure. Elsewhere across Russia, however, the use of long-range weapons remains off-limits, and the Ukrainian forces will not be able to effectively target production, storage, and launch sites, including those used in attacks on Sumska oblast.
Attacks on the energy infrastructure across Sumska oblast spiked in late September 2024 and have caused damage-related unplanned power cuts. Sumska oblast is also one of the three most affected oblasts in terms of district heating facility damage after Kharkivska and Kyivska.
ANTICIPATED IMPACT
Continued air attacks and shelling over the coming winter will increase the scope and scale of humanitarian needs in Sumska oblast. Ongoing displacement, especially from the 20km zone, will continue to drive the need for shelter in safer areas within the oblast. The lack of accommodation spaces and affordable housing in the oblast will continue to be the main challenge in meeting those shelter needs and, alongside inadequate livelihood support, may push people to move back to their homes in unsafe areas subject to evacuation orders.
Russian air attacks will also lead to further casualties, driving physical and mental health needs, and overstretched services and a lack of available support will prevent people from accessing the assistance needed. The attacks will also result in increased safety risks from mine and unexploded ordnance contamination.
Overstretched state social protection services, such as institutional care for older people in Sumska oblast, will likely lead to unmet basic needs, including food.
Apart from insecurity, prolonged power cuts in the cold season may also force some NGOs to relocate, widening existing gaps in overall humanitarian access and the response constraints mentioned across this analysis.
Sumska oblast, and Sumskyi raion, in particular, will be one of the areas with the highest winter-related risks stemming from a combination of severe winter conditions (freezing temperatures, namely the lowest in the country, and snow precipitation during winter), high numbers of older people and IDPs, and energy infrastructure damage, alongside people’s limited capacity to cope with winter-related challenges.
Source: ACAPS
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Humanitarian Response and Funding Snapshot (January - October 2024)
Humanitarian Response and Funding Snapshot (January - October 2024)
SITUATION UPDATE
In October, hostilities in front-line areas and attacks across Ukraine continued to cause the loss of life and damage homes, schools and hospitals, forcing more people from front-line Kharkivska and Donetska oblasts to seek safety in other parts of the country.
At least 30 health facilities and over 50 education institutions were destroyed or damaged in October, mostly in front-line oblasts, which were exposed to relentless fighting, according to the Human Rights Monitoring Mission to Ukraine. As a result of increased hostilities, people in the front-line areas, many of whom are older people, continued to rely on humanitarian assistance, including for accessing basic services like health care, food and livelihood support. As temperatures started to drop, repairs to damaged homes became more urgent to keep people safe from harsh winter conditions.
During the first 10 months of 2024, more than 630 humanitarian organizations provided at least one form of assistance to 7.7 million people across Ukraine, including people affected by attacks and newly displaced people. To meet growing needs, compared with the previous month, in October, aid workers scaled up their support with health care (0.4 million people reached), water, sanitation and hygiene services (0.3 million people) as well as child protection (0.3 million) and protection support (0.1 million). Some 0.15 million people were reached with multi-purpose cash assistance, and 0.1 million people were provided with materials for emergency repairs and non-food supplies to meet energy needs.
Aid workers also reached some 0.1 million people with mine action support, primarily mine risk education. Of those reached, almost 60 per cent were women and girls, 34 per cent were older people, nearly 20 per cent were children, and 12 per cent were people with disabilities.
Prioritizing the most affected regions, humanitarians surpassed the original plans for assistance in front-line Sumska, Mykolaivska, Kharkivska and Chernihivska oblasts in the north-east, south and east. Despite challenging security conditions, humanitarians in Zaporizka, Donetska and Khersonska oblasts adapted the response to meet increased needs throughout 2024. Further from the front line, aid organizations also exceeded the assistance planned in several oblasts in the north-west and south-west of the country, including to support newly displaced people in Ivano-Frankivska and Rivnenska oblasts.
Between January and October, humanitarian actors delivered 39 inter-agency convoys to assist nearly 64,000 people in front-line communities in Donetska, Kharkivska, Khersonska, Mykolaivska and Zaporizka oblasts, where access is limited. In October alone, six of these convoys, three of which were delivered to Mykolaivska Oblast, provided food, clean water, medicines, repair materials, hygiene supplies and other essential assistance.
With winter driving humanitarian needs, aid workers provided winter-related assistance to over 144,000 people under the 2024-2025 Winter Response Plan. Older people and people with disabilities accounted for 33 per cent and 9 per cent of the people reached with winter support, respectively. The 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is 58 per cent funded out of the requested US$3.11 billion.
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Key Message Update: Winter begins in Ukraine as Russian troops advance along the eastern front, October 2024
Key Message Update: Winter begins in Ukraine as Russian troops advance along the eastern front, October 2024
In October, Russian troops advanced across the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts, making territorial gains and establishing control over dozens of villages, including several Ukrainian strongholds. Across Ukraine, the Human Rights Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (HRMMU) verified over 1,200 civilian injuries and 200 civilian deaths in September, while ACLED reported 184 civilian deaths in October. In targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure, Russia hit the ports in Odesa City and Izmail on October 6 and 9, respectively, damaging several internationally-flagged civilian ships. NATO and the Pentagon confirmed that North Korean troops have been deployed to Kursk oblast in Russia – estimates range between 8,000 and 12,000. However, it is highly unlikely that this scale of deployment will alter the trajectory of the current conflict in terms of developments along the front lines.
Continued attacks on energy infrastructure remain a concern as winter begins. Ukraine has lost over 50 percent of its generating capacity, and scheduled blackouts have been ongoing since the spring. As temperatures drop below freezing over the winter, many households will likely face hours-long power outages. The areas of Kharkiv, Bohodukhiv, and Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Oblast, along with Sumskyi in Sumska Oblast, face the greatest risks during the winter. This is primarily due to harsher winter conditions, a high concentration of vulnerable populations such as internally displaced persons and the elderly, and conflict-related damage to housing that was already poorly insulated. A recent agreement with the European Union is expected to boost electricity import capacity into Ukraine and Moldova more than five-fold from December through at least March 2025. However, conflict-related damage to distribution and transmission infrastructure continues to impact power supplies, and such imports are unlikely to meet demand fully as energy use peaks during the winter.
As of October, more than 3.5 million Ukrainians remain internally displaced by the war. WFP continues to provide much-needed support to local populations, particularly those living in frontline regions in eastern Ukraine and evacuees. An estimated 1.5 million people received humanitarian assistance during October, with 848,000 receiving in-kind food assistance and 608,000 receiving cash-based assistance. As in past months, recipients in areas where humanitarian access conditions remain volatile received double 30-day rations, this time in Donetsk. In anticipation of heightened needs during winter, the scale of cash-based assistance expanded to target 50,000 new beneficiaries in regions most affected by the ongoing conflict, including those not eligible for government pensions, those with disabilities, and those who receive less than 3,250 UAH in social benefits.
Ukraine’s economy has been heavily impacted by the war but is still demonstrating remarkable resilience. GDP rose 4.2 percent year-on-year, which – while comparable to pre-war growth rates – follows an estimated 29 percent economic contraction that occurred in 2022 due to the impacts of the war. Agricultural exports remain crucial to the country’s economic performance. In October, over 6 million tons of grains, oilseeds, and related products were exported, representing a 39 percent increase from October 2023, when 4.33 million tons were exported. Similarly, year-to-date (January-September) agricultural export volumes are up 36.2 percent compared to the same period in 2023. During the three years prior to the war, monthly exports averaged 5.33 million tons. Despite recent attacks on port infrastructure, the vast majority (approximately 89 percent) of exports continue to be exported via Ukraine’s ports.
The 2023/24 sunflower, rice, and corn harvests are ongoing, and as of October 25th, farmers in unoccupied areas of Ukraine have harvested 63.7 million tons of grains and oilseeds.1 The total harvest is expected to be lower than initially forecasted due to unusually hot and dry conditions during the growing season. By comparison, the total estimated harvest in 2022/23 was 82 million tons in unoccupied areas, while the bumper harvest in 2021/2022 in both unoccupied and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine was over 100 million tons. Planting activities for winter barley, wheat, and rapeseed crops are also wrapping up across the country. While winter cropping conditions in western Ukraine are generally favorable, conditions are poor in the east, center, and south, where winter wheat crops are reportedly 2-3 weeks behind in development as the winter dormancy period arrives. If crops are not mature enough before dormancy, they have an increased susceptibility to winter kill, are less competitive with weeds, and are more susceptible to disease and pests, which lower yield potential.
Source: FEWS NET
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Health care in the dark: the impacts of Russian attacks on energy in Ukraine
Health care in the dark: the impacts of Russian attacks on energy in Ukraine
Russian Bombardment of Ukraine’s Power Grid Forces Health Care Workers to Operate in the Dark.
Russia’s widespread and systematic attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid have harmed health care workers and endangered patients, according to a first-of-its-kind report published today by Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) and Truth Hounds. Ninety-two percent of 2,261 Ukrainian health care workers surveyed report experiencing power outages at their health care facility due to attacks on energy infrastructure. Health care workers reported these attacks also caused permanent health harms and even deaths.
“Health Care in the Dark: The Impacts of Russian Attacks on Energy in Ukraine” documents how Russian attacks on the power grid have caused reverberating impacts on health care, including suffering and disruptions to the Ukrainian health system. The report details how the assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure led to interrupted or delayed surgeries, forcing surgeons to operate in darkness illuminated only by flashlights; failures in life support systems; discontinued flow of water to hospitals; diagnostic and treatment equipment becoming unusable; patients experiencing panic attacks and cardiac arrhythmia due to lack of power; impeded maternal care service delivery; and other impacts on health care provision.
PHR and Truth Hounds conducted an online survey with health care workers across Ukraine to better understand how attacks on health and energy infrastructure affect the health of Ukraine’s population, the working conditions of health care workers, and the experiences of patients. The results of the 2,261 health workers surveyed include:
Two-thirds of health workers (66 percent) reported that power outages due to attacks on energy infrastructure affected medical procedures in their facilities.
Eight percent noted delays in elective surgeries, two percent experienced interruptions during surgery, and two percent reported failures in life support systems due to outages.
Outages disrupted communication systems (36 percent), water supply (22 percent), heating and ventilation (19 percent), and elevators (17 percent).
Eight percent of respondents noted malfunctions in diagnostic equipment, such as X-ray machines and MRIs due to outages.
Medication storage issues, leading to spoilage, were reported by 14 percent of respondents, and four percent informed about problems with storing biological samples like blood or embryos.
Permanent health harms (36) and deaths (20) were also reported to result from attacks on energy that impacted power at health facilities.
Eighty-three percent of health workers experienced increased stress, burnout, and other challenges due to these attacks on energy infrastructure and disruption of services.
The report is the first comprehensive study to show the links between attacks on energy infrastructure and health care in Ukraine.
Prior to the war, Ukraine had one of the most developed energy sectors in Europe but available capacity plummeted by 85 percent by June 2024 due to Russia’s systematic attacks on energy infrastructure. Russia has blocked gas transit to Ukraine, seized energy infrastructure assets, launched cyberattacks, and systematically bombed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. As of September 2024, Russia has reportedly destroyed all thermal power plants and nearly all large hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights has condemned Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy network, warning of the “grave risks” of these attacks for the health and well-being of civilians, particularly vulnerable populations in Ukraine as winter arrives. At least 1539 verified attacks on health care workers and infrastructure have been perpetrated in Ukraine since February 2022. At least 104 attacks have impacted hospital utilities, such as the water or energy system.
Despite clear protections for health and energy infrastructure during armed conflict under international law, attacks on the power grid and health facilities have been significant features of the Russian invasion. In many cases, these attacks amount to violations of international law, including the laws of war and the human rights to life and health, and may give rise to criminal culpability as a matter of international criminal law. The Health Care in the Dark report is informed by case studies of attacks on Okhmadyt National Specialized Children’s Hospital and Mariupol Regional Intensive Care Hospital, a detailed analysis of attacks on energy infrastructure, in-depth interviews with health workers, an open-source analysis, and a survey of health workers conducted from July-September 2024. The report findings, while not generalizable to the entire country, offer a snapshot into the experiences of the health workers surveyed and interviewed. Given the difficulties in reporting faced by clinicians, particularly in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, figures may undercount the true tolls of attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Source: PHR
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Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) - October 2024
Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) - October 2024
Key findings
In October, local markets continued to function reliably, effectively supplying basic needs across most of the country. However, the shift in the frontline in the East has disrupted the market functionality in this area.
Customer KIs in government-controlled areas of Donetska Oblast reported difficulty accessing shops, primarily due to active fighting or shelling, fear of being targeted, movement restrictions, damaged infrastructure, and limited transportation options. Access to goods was further limited due to their unavailability or shortages. The situation was found to be the particularly severe in Marinska hromada, where markets had completely ceased to function, and customer KIs reported a complete lack of access to food, hygiene items, warm clothes, medication, and cash.
Inflationary pressures continued to intensify, with the annual inflation rate reaching 9.7%. Rising electricity and vegetable prices contributed the most, with increases of +63.6% and + 62.1%, respectively. The median cost of the JMMI food basket was 13% higher than in October of the previous year, with the highest annual price increases observed in cabbage (+193%), potatoes (+160%), and carrots (+102%).
JMMI analysis indicates that increased prices for goods were reported as a primary financial barrier for 65% of customer KIs. Affordability remained a critical nationwide issue, particularly impacting the elderly population, as 91% of customer KIs aged 60 yeas and above reported being unable to afford necessary items available in stores. This can indicate a heightened vulnerability among elderly individuals regarding their ability to meet basic needs.
Sources: IMPACT Initiatives, REACH
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UNHCR Ukraine Localization
UNHCR Ukraine Localization
Since the start of the humanitarian emergency in Ukraine, UNHCR has strived to design and deliver its programmes in a way that helps address an immediate need, while simultaneously strengthening and reinforcing the national and local capacity, to support sustainability, national leadership and community ownership.
Localization entails prioritizing a protection and solutions strategy centred around partnerships with Government authorities, national NGOs and community-based organizations led by affected communities. By doing so, UNHCR builds on and harnesses local expertise, experience, outreach capacity and fosters community participation, whilst also increasing cost effectiveness.
Working with the Government
To underpin this sustainability and national and local-ownership approach and ensure that UNHCR’s programmes complement and reinforce national priorities and programmes, UNHCR has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) with four Government ministries as well as with the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights and the Olena Zelenska Foundation, with several more MOUs in the pipeline. In addition, UNHCR has signed MOUs with 19 regional oblast administrations.
Working with local partners
UNHCR prioritizes partnerships with local partners, including national NGOs and community-based organizations led by affected communities. UNHCR implements several of its programs through a network of 20 partner organizations, of which 16 are Ukrainian NGOs. These partners are key to the effectiveness and reach of UNHCR’s_ _programmes, including legal aid and access to social services, psychosocial support, humanitarian assistance to people living in frontline communities and victims of aerial attacks, and community based protection.
KEY FIGURES
In 2024: 16 of 20 partner organizations of UNHCR Ukraine are local organizations.
In 2024: Over 90% of partner funding goes directly to national organizations, an increase of almost 30% in comparison to 2023.
In 2023: 89% of UNHCR’s procurement was done through Ukrainian suppliers (amounting to $68.8 million), compared to 79% in 2022.
As of 2024, UNHCR has signed Memoranda of Understanding with four Government ministries, the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, the Olena Zelenska Foundation, the State Border Guard Service, and 19 regional oblast authorities.
Source: UNHCR
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Education for some 485,000 children to be better protected over the winter months
Education for some 485,000 children to be better protected over the winter months
School grants for an additional 100 educational facilities increase the number of such facilities receiving winter support to 800.
The latest release of school grants will help enhance winter operations for an additional 100 schools, taking the total number supported by UNICEF jointly with the Ministry of Education and Science to eight hundred. This support will help to keep some 488,000 children learning during the coming freezing weeks and months.
The allocation of UAH 290,500 (USD7,000) per school is distributed to support repairs to infrastructure, and the purchase, storage and transportation of heating supplies, as well as upgrades to school canteens where needed.
The schools receiving grants include those offering in-person or blended learning in frontline areas, those educating at least 50 internally displaced children, and schools providing in-person or blended learning that are the only educational facilities available to children in some hromadas.
The grants will improve the resilience of schools across all Oblasts and the latest resources follow on from the 700 schools selected to receive financial support under this programme in October.
The schools were selected by a committee consisting of representatives from the Ministry of Education and Science (MoES), the Ministry of National Unity (the former Ministry of Reintegration), and UNICEF. The financial assistance is a one-time grant, and funds will be disbursed to the 100 educational facilities in time for the start of the next academic term in January 2025.
UNICEF is grateful to the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development through the German Development Bank (KFW) and the Government of Norway for providing the financial resources for the school winterization programme.
Source: UNICEF
STATUS OF THE CONFLICT
STATUS OF THE CONFLICT
Russia-Belarus forge closer ties
Russia-Belarus forge closer ties
The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a new Union State treaty on security guarantees at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State in Minsk, Belarus on December 6. Lukashenko made a public appeal to Putin that Russia deploy Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus under the condition that the Belarusian military-political leadership would determine the Oreshnik's targets should the missile ever launch from Belarusian territory.
Putin responded to Lukashenko's request by stating that Russia could deploy Oreshnik systems to Belarus by mid-2025 on the grounds of the new Union State agreement on security guarantees and as Russia scales up the production of Oreshnik ballistic missiles. Putin noted that the new security treaty allows Russia and Belarus to use "all available forces and means" as part of Russia’s and Belarus’ mutual defense obligations.
The treaty also requires Russia and Belarus to ensure the security of the Union State's borders, and Putin emphasized that the new document includes the potential use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus in the event of aggression against Belarus. The agreement follows the release of Russia's updated nuclear doctrine on November 19, which formally placed Belarus under Russia's nuclear umbrella and consistent with Russia’s existing treaty obligations with Belarus. The deployment of Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus would further increase Russia’s military footprint in Belarus and advance the Kremlin’s longstanding strategic effort to erode Belarusian sovereignty and de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework.
The deployment of the Oreshnik missiles to Belarus does not significantly increase the immediate risks of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strikes against Ukraine or NATO states despite the Kremlin’s intensified nuclear saber-rattling. Putin once again tried to flaunt the Oreshnik missile and Russian missile capabilities during the Union State Supreme State Council meeting as part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation.
Source: ISW
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Russia's 'meat-grinder' tactics bring battlefield success - but at horrendous cost
Russia's 'meat-grinder' tactics bring battlefield success - but at horrendous cost
As 2024 draws to a close, and winter arrives, Russian forces are continuing to push their Ukrainian opponents back.
In total, Russia has captured and retaken about 2,350 sq km of territory (907 sq miles) in eastern Ukraine and in Russia's western Kursk region.
But the cost in lives has been horrendous.
Britain's defence ministry says that in November Russia suffered 45,680 casualties, more than during any month since its full-scale invasion in February 2022. According to the latest UK Defence Intelligence estimate, Russia lost a daily average of 1,523 men, killed and wounded.
On 28 November, it says, Russia lost more than 2,000 men in a single day, the first time this has happened. Officials said the casualty figures were based on open-source material, sometimes cross-referenced with classified data.
All in all, Russia is estimated to have lost about 125,800 soldiers over the course of its autumn offensives, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia's "meat-grinder" tactics, the ISW says, mean that Moscow is losing more than 50 soldiers for each square kilometre of captured territory.Ukraine does not allow publication of its own military casualties, so there are no official estimates covering the last few months.
The Russian defence ministry says more than 38,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been lost (killed and wounded) in Kursk alone - a number that is impossible to verify.
Yuriy Butusov, a well-connected but controversial Ukrainian war correspondent, says that 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since February 2022, with another 35,000 missing.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied US media reports that as many as 80,000 Ukrainian troops had died, saying it was "much less". He did not offer his own figure.
But taken together, the Russian and Ukrainian casualty figures point to the terrifying intensity of fighting going on in Kursk and Ukraine's eastern regions. Western officials see no sign of this changing.
The pace of Russia's advance has increased in recent weeks (while still nothing like the speed of its rapid advances in the first months of the war), stemmed only by a significant change in the ratio of artillery fire between the two sides.
Where once Russia was able to fire as many as 13 shells for every one Ukraine fired back, the ratio is now around 1.5 to 1.
This dramatic turnaround is partly explained by increased domestic production, as well as successful Ukrainian attacks on depots containing Russian and North Korean ammunition. But artillery, while important, no longer plays such a decisive role.
Russia's use of glide bombs - launched from jets flying well inside Russian-controlled airspace - has increased 10-fold over the past year, the official said.
Glide bombs and drones have transformed the conflict, as each side races to innovate.
As for manpower, both Ukraine and Russia continue to experience difficulties, but for different reasons. Ukraine has been unwilling to reduce its conscription age below 25, depriving it of all 18- to 24-year-olds - except those who volunteer.
Russia, meanwhile, is still able to replace its losses, although President Vladimir Putin's reluctance to conduct a fresh round of mobilisation points to a number of domestic considerations.
Soaring inflation, overflowing hospitals and problems with compensation payments to bereaved families are all factors. In some regions of Russia, bonuses offered to volunteers willing to sign up for the war in Ukraine have risen as high as three million roubles (about £23,500; $30,000).
Source: BBC
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How Ukraine has faced its worst month on the battlefield in two years
How Ukraine has faced its worst month on the battlefield in two years
November was Ukraine’s worst month since September 2022 for territory lost to Russian forces.
Ukraine lost an area equivalent to the size of New York City to Russian forces in November – the worst monthly figure for Ukrainian defenders since September 2022.
After the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia gained ground quickly before being pushed back in a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Last year, with the conflict mostly at a stalemate, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) data shows that Russian forces took 2,233 sq km (862 sq miles) of territory. Already in 2024 they have taken about 2,656 sq km.
The area seized by the Russians in November amounts 1,202 sq km, roughly the same size as New York City. But experts have argued that a large proportion of the land is rural and not of huge strategic or operational value. Russian forces have mostly encircled but not yet taken major cities, and few major rail or road arteries have been severed recently.
Russian control of Ukrainian territory has increased from 17.4% in November 2023 to 17.9% as of 30 November 2024.
Russia has made the most territorial gains in Donetsk, where it has gained 1,804 sq km since the start of the year. In November alone, it gained 1,006 sq km.
The November advance in Donetsk marks the Russians’ biggest gains in the region since May 2022. These gains represent the majority of Russia’s recent battlefield successes.
In October, Russia captured the town of Vuhledar, a key stronghold in southern Donetsk that has withstood repeated Russian attacks since the beginning of the war.
Since April, Russia has been driving towards the city of Pokrovsk, a regional capital and a key military objective. Several towns have been captured in this advance, including Novohrodivka, a town with a prewar population of 15,000.
Mapping the land that Russia has taken over the last year reveals how it has mainly been seizing agricultural land but has failed to make significant gains across territory with major urban or infrastructure value.
Source: The Guardian
UPDATES ON INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
UPDATES ON INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
Scholz 'confident' on joint Ukraine strategy Trump
Scholz 'confident' on joint Ukraine strategy Trump
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is confident he will be able to agree with US President-elect Donald Trump on a joint strategy for Ukraine after speaking to him on the phone, Scholz told the Funke group of newspapers.
"I have already spoken extensively on the phone with the future US president, and we are also in direct contact with those responsible for security policy," Scholz said in an interview published on Saturday morning.
"I am confident that we can develop a joint strategy for Ukraine. My guiding principle remains that nothing can be decided without giving the Ukrainian people a say," he stressed.
Germany has been one of the Kyiv's biggest military backers, second only to the United States in terms of the aid sent to Ukraine.
US policy on Ukraine, which has been closely coordinated with European allies, is expected to change under Trump. The president-elect has vowed to push for a quick deal to end Russia's war, but has offered no details on how he would do so.
Source: DW
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Europe may have to double its aid for Ukraine under Trump, diplomats fear
Europe may have to double its aid for Ukraine under Trump, diplomats fear
Kyiv told to increase domestic arms production as its officials say they have enough support to fight through 2025
European military aid to Ukraine may eventually need to be doubled if Donald Trump cuts off US funding, European diplomats fear, but Ukraine is confident with already announced US aid this year that it has the military and budgetary support to keep fighting through 2025.
The former EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, has also recommended a step-change in Ukraine’s domestic arms manufacturing during 2025, believing it the cheapest and most efficient way for Ukraine to keep fighting.
European officials are meanwhile confident that Ukraine will receive a $50bn (£39bn) loan repaid from the interest earned on frozen Russian assets of $280bn that was announced in October by G7 countries.
The US is expected to cover $20bn of the loan with the first US tranche to be paid before Donald Trump takes office, but it is not clear if the president-elect could later legally pull out of the arrangement in an attempt to force Ukraine to the negotiating table.
Officials from the EU believe that, even in this situation, they could agree to make up most of the shortfall.
Europe has provided €46bn in military aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion and the US approximately €65bn. This is separate from aid to help fund Ukraine’s debt.
The Biden administration is pushing through military aid packages before Trump’s inauguration in January, though some European diplomats fear that if the war does continue beyond 2025 and European military aid does need to be doubled it could prove impossible politically owing to the surge in support for populist parties across Europe.
Borrell, speaking at the Grand Continent summit in Italy, insisted the west could still help strengthen Ukraine’s hand by boosting domestic arms manufacturing. “If you want to support Ukraine’s war effort, give them money to develop their own defence industrial capacity,” he said. “It is much more efficient than buying weapons here in Europe, reimbursing and sending. Ukrainian engineers have shown an incredible capacity to quickly produce the things that they need.”
Ukraine is already planning to produce at least 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise missiles and drone missiles next year.
Borrell also warned Russia’s electronic warfare meant that 80% of the mainly US-supplied 155mm guided artillery shells were being jammed, requiring Ukraine to revert to using cheaper and less precise munitions that could not be blocked.
Ukraine’s finance minister, Serhiy Marchenko, said he was confident Ukraine had the funds and budget to fight in 2025.
Despite growing speculation over potential Trump-driven ceasefire talks in the new year, Marchenko warned Ukraine must be prepared for “a long marathon” and not an end to fighting.
The EU and Ukraine are privately trying to convince the next Trump administration that the Ukrainian leadership should at least be given another year of support to see if it can push back Russia, or test whether sanctions start to inflict more serious damage on the Russian economy. Ukrainian officials met the US vice-president elect, JD Vance, in Washington this week.
But diplomatic discussions are in flux, with some European countries, especially France and UK drawing up fall-back plans for a non-Nato “coalition of the willing” to act as a peacekeeping force or guarantor inside Ukraine in the event of Vladimir Putin agreeing a ceasefire in which Russian captured territory is not handed back to Ukraine.
The president of Ukraine, Volodymr Zelenskyy, has suggested ending the “hot phase” of the war in exchange for Nato membership for the Ukrainian territories not occupied by Russia.
But discussions are still at an early stage and the UK has, for instance, not abandoned seizing all of Russia’s frozen assets and handing them to Ukraine, a move that unnerves some allies.
Marchenko also admitted western-supplied tanks such as Abrams and Leopards are less useful than artillery since they are too exposed to drone attack when deployed.
Source: The Guardian
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The European Union (EU) provides additional funding to UNHCR to help Ukrainians get through the harsh winter
The European Union (EU) provides additional funding to UNHCR to help Ukrainians get through the harsh winter
On December 2, 2024, UNHCR announced additional contribution of euros 26.4 million from the European Union to support the crucial winter response that UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, is already rolling out country-wide.
This timely contribution adds to the € 17.5 million that the European Union had previously provided to UNHCR’s Ukraine operation in 2024 – as well as the €4 million in financial support given to UNHCR’s response towards refugees from Ukraine in Moldova, as outlined in the Ukraine Refugee Response Plan.
This timely contribution adds to the € 17.5 million that the European Union had previously provided to UNHCR’s Ukraine operation in 2024 – as well as the €4 million in financial support given to UNHCR’s response towards refugees from Ukraine in Moldova, as outlined in the Ukraine Refugee Response Plan.
In addition, UNHCR is distributing rapid thermal kits to families with items that will allow them to quickly and easily insulate their homes from the cold. UNHCR is also doing repair works, such as installing new high-quality windows and repairing damaged roofs, in war-damaged homes and in collective sites, hosting displaced people to improve living conditions.
Source: UNHCR
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NATO chief urges European allies to ramp up defense spending as Trump returns to White House
NATO chief urges European allies to ramp up defense spending as Trump returns to White House
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte led a fresh push Wednesday for European countries to ramp up defense spending, a budget shortfall that President-elect Donald Trump used to berate U.S. allies during his first term in office, severely damaging trust.
After Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula a decade ago, NATO leaders agreed to halt the defense cuts that began when the Cold War ended and move toward spending 2% of GDP on their military budgets.
Since Russia launched its full-fledged invasion almost three years ago, the leaders have agreed that the 2% target should be the floor rather than the ceiling for defense spending. On average, U.S. allies combined meet that figure, but around a third of the members still do not individually.
Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, threatened not to defend “delinquent” countries. NATO is founded on the principle that an attack on any member must be considered an attack on them all. Trump’s remarks undermined confidence that the U.S. could be counted on in a crisis.
In July, U.S. President Joe Biden and his NATO counterparts endorsed the biggest shakeup of the way the military alliance would respond to any attack on its territory by Russia since the Cold War. It was meant to deter Moscow from targeting any of the 32 allies.
Under highly secret new plans, NATO intends to have up to 300,000 troops ready to move to its eastern flank within 30 days. The plans lay out which allies would respond to an attack anywhere from the Arctic and Baltic Sea region through the Atlantic and east to the Black Sea.
But senior NATO officials concede that countries might have to spend up to 3% of GDP to execute the security blueprint successfully. A new spending target is likely to be announced next year. Rutte also said NATO might set specific targets for member countries to fill military equipment gaps.
Rutte also underlined the importance of expanding Europe’s defense industry, with incentives to drive companies to set up more production lines and hire more workers to staff them, as Western support for Ukraine drains armament stocks.
Source: AP News
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Sweden, Denmark place huge order for combat vehicles
Sweden, Denmark place huge order for combat vehicles
Sweden and Denmark have signed a contract with a Swedish military equipment manufacturer for the purchase of 205 armored combat vehicles.
Of the 205 CV90 vehicles ordered, 115 will be delivered to Denmark, 50 to Sweden and 40 to Ukraine, the Swedish government said in a statement on Friday.
The contract with BAE Systems Hagglunds is worth 25 billion Swedish kronor ($2.3 billion, €2.17 billion).
Source: DW
HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE
HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE
Angelus - December 8, 2024 (Solemnity of the Immaculate Conception / Sunday)
Angelus - December 8, 2024 (Solemnity of the Immaculate Conception / Sunday)
And let us continue to pray for peace, in tormented Ukraine, in the Middle East – Palestine, Israel, Lebanon, now in Syria – in Myanmar, Sudan and wherever people suffer from war and violence. I appeal to governors and the international community, so that we may reach the feast of the Nativity with a ceasefire on all fronts of war.
E continuiamo a pregare per la pace, nella martoriata Ucraina, in Medio Oriente – Palestina, Israele, Libano, adesso la Siria –, in Myanmar, Sudan e dovunque si soffre per la guerra e le violenze. Faccio appello ai Governanti e alla Comunità internazionale, perché si possa arrivare alla festa del Natale con un cessate-il-fuoco su tutti i fronti di guerra.
Links to the full text in ENGLISH and ITALIANGeneral Audience - December 4, 2024
General Audience - December 4, 2024
Saluto cordialmente i polacchi. Domenica prossima in Polonia si celebrerà la XXV Giornata della preghiera e dell’aiuto materiale per la Chiesa dell’Est. Ringrazio tutti coloro che sostengono con la preghiera e le offerte la Chiesa in quei territori, specialmente in Ucraina, martoriata dalla guerra. Vi benedico di cuore!
E, per favore, continuiamo a pregare per la pace! La guerra è una sconfitta umana. La guerra non risolve i problemi, la guerra è cattiva, la guerra distrugge. Preghiamo per i Paesi in guerra. Non dimentichiamo la martoriata Ucraina, non dimentichiamo la Palestina, Israele, Myanmar… Tanti bambini morti, tanti innocenti morti! Preghiamo perché il Signore ci faccia arrivare alla pace. Preghiamo sempre per la pace
Links to the full text in ITALIANMEMBER PHOTOS
MEMBER PHOTOS
In a historic first, Fr General visits Ukraine with a message of hope and solidarity. Between 6–10 November, Father General of the Society of Jesus, Arturo Sosa, visited Ukraine and the Jesuit organizations working within the country. During his visit, which represents the first visit of Father General to the country, he inaugurated the Centre Space for Hope and brought a message of hope and commitment to long-term accompaniment to those affected by the ongoing war.
Since the start of the war, the Society of Jesus has accompanied more that 110.000 people, including more than 17.000 in Ukraine alone. Coordinated by JRS Europe and the Xavier Network, in collaboration with NGOs and local partners, the Society of Jesus has provided emergency aid, shelter, psychosocial support, education, and integration, among other services.
The Centre Space of Hope in Chernivtsi is a new Jesuit project that will provide psychosocial and spiritual accompaniment, dialogue and reconciliation for those affected by the war. With over 20 bedrooms, a fully equipped kitchen, a chapel and multipurpose rooms, Space of Hope will start running before the end of the year. (courtesy of JRS)
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