Weekly Update #147
December 23 2024

REFUGEE SITUATION

Exploring Refugees’ Intentions to Return to Ukraine

THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE

Crisis in Ukraine

STATUS OF THE CONFLICT

Civilian Casualties in Ukraine

HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE

Angelus - December 22, 2024

General Audience - December 18, 2024

NEWS

MEMBER PHOTOS

REFUGEE SITUATION

(as of 16 December 2024)

General Figures

Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe

6,253,700

Last updated December 16 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay

Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe

560,200

Last updated December 16 2024

Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally

6,813,900

Last updated December 16 2024

Estimated number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ukraine (as of Aug 2024)

3,669,000

Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities

Exploring Refugees’ Intentions to Return to Ukraine

This study, resulting from collaboration between IOM and the Migration Policy Institute Europe (MPI Europe), contributes to filling this evidence gap. By using advanced statistical methods, it explores how personal circumstances, host-country conditions and conditions in Ukraine shape refugees’ intentions to return or remain abroad. In doing so, the study is able to explore differences in refugees’ return intentions across 10 Central and Eastern European countries and the extent to which host country reception conditions (including economic conditions and support measures for displaced Ukrainians) may explain these differences. The central data source, the IOM Survey with Refugees in the Ukraine Response Region (conducted 2022–2023), is the largest and most internationally comparable source of information on return intentions among refugees from Ukraine in Central and Eastern Europe.

Executive Summary

The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation on 24 February 2022 triggered Europe’s largest displacement crisis since World War II, with more than 6 million people fleeing to other European countries.

In response, the European Union activated the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) for the first time, granting protection and access to housing, the labour market, education and other services to refugees from Ukraine. Non-EU countries also opened their doors, including the Republic of Moldova, which adopted its own temporary protection status.

The activation of temporary protection measures and outpouring of public solidarity helped welcome refugees, but more than two years on, hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict have faded. With the TPD’s protection for this group currently set to expire in March 2026, their long-term future is uncertain, and policymakers in countries hosting refugees are faced with questions about whether to invest in further integration measures and/or to help refugees prepare for return and reintegration, once conditions in Ukraine allow it.

Some refugees are already returning to Ukraine, despite the ongoing war. As of April 2024, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated that about 1.2 million Ukrainians had returned to Ukraine. While most only visit briefly, to see family or tend to their property, others return with the intention of staying permanently. These trends raise questions for European and Ukrainian policymakers about the likely scale and drivers of future returns, and how to adapt their policies to prepare for these movements.

The analysis shows that, despite the ongoing war and heavy destruction in some communities, many Ukrainian refugees do hope to return to Ukraine. Across the 10 study countries, 15 per cent of surveyed Ukrainians had concrete plans to return in the near term, and the vast majority (91%) hoped to return to Ukraine in the long term, once it is safe. There is, however, considerable variation in return intentions across host countries, particularly when it comes to returning in the short term. In Poland and Czechia, more than 40 per cent of refugees were planning a return trip in the near future, compared to just 1 per cent in the Republic of Moldova. Based on the statistical analysis, the following key findings emerge about the drivers of these differing return intentions:

Comprehensive host-country support for refugees from Ukraine could both promote further integration and increase refugees’ capacity to return and reintegrate – a potential win-win situation for refugees, host communities and Ukraine. Multivariate analysis showed a strong link between supportive host-country policies (in terms of educational, health and social services) and increased refugee intentions to return to Ukraine in the short term. Similarly, intentions to return to Ukraine in the short term were higher in host countries with more favourable economic conditions, such as lower levels of poverty and higher gross domestic product (GDP). These finding suggest that return intentions might be best understood as a reflection of refugees’ capacity, in terms of stability and financial resources, to plan a return – capacity that can be strengthened by robust support and economic conditions in host countries.
Personal circumstances, particularly employment, can outweigh the influence of other factors and reduce intentions to return. Ukrainians who were formally employed in their host country were on average 12 percentage points less likely to say they had plans to return to Ukraine in the near future than those who were not. Similarly, employment-related support in host countries, unlike health and education support measures, was not linked to increased return intentions. Refugees who had children or older dependants in their household were also less likely to state an intention to return to Ukraine, likely due to the unpredictability of the war and related concerns about their family members’ safety and access to needed services.
Relatively few displaced third-country nationals intend to return to Ukraine, pointing to a need to manage secondary movements and improve pathways to legal status. Only 3 per cent of surveyed third-country nationals expressed an intention to return to Ukraine in the near future, while 27 per cent said they would remain in their host country and 70 per cent planned to move onward – either to their country of origin or another destination. The sizeable share planning to move onward likely reflects the significant legal uncertainty surrounding this population, since many do not benefit from temporary protection. To reduce their risk of falling into irregular status or engaging in unmanaged secondary movements, priority should be given to improving access to legal status (such as by helping displaced international students apply for a visa to study in their host country) and facilitating third-country nationals’ return to their origin countries, where this is a safe option.

Overall, the observed patterns highlight the diversity of future mobility plans among people displaced from Ukraine. While many Ukrainians hope to return to their country at some point, there is unlikely to be a large-scale, one-off return movement once the war ends. Instead, return will be gradual, with some refugees already planning to return – though the IOM survey data do not indicate whether these are short visits or longer-term settlement plans. This pattern underscores the importance of proactively managing return movements, including by supporting refugees who need to travel. In addition, the destruction left behind by the war will continue to constrain refugees’ desire and ability to return for years to come. In the meantime, many will have established personal and professional ties in their host countries that they will hope to maintain, whether through continued residence, frequent visits or other means. Consequently, policymakers in Ukraine and other European countries should seek to continue to support refugees, as a means to both facilitate their integration into local communities and to strengthen their capacity to return to and reintegrate in Ukraine once it is safe, along with designing flexible policies to manage increased movement back and forth from Ukraine. These elements combined will help support the well-being of refugees and their host communities, the future reconstruction of Ukraine and the development of strong links between Ukraine and its European neighbours.

Full report can be found here

THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE

Crisis in Ukraine

Ukraine is faced with a severe humanitarian crisis, which includes widespread displacement, infrastructure damage and escalating civilian needs. In Ukraine and neighbouring countries, IOM is responding to the enormous humanitarian needs of Ukrainians forced to flee the country, those who have been internally displaced and stranded third-country nationals.

As Ukraine experiences its third year of full-scale war in 2024, it continues to face extensive destruction and human suffering. Sustained attacks along the front lines and in eastern territories have devastated civilian lives and essential services. Critical infrastructure, including water, education and health-care infrastructure, has been significantly damaged. The arrival of winter exacerbates the vulnerabilities faced by those in affected regions. It has now been a decade since the Russian Federation began its occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, Ukraine, and the start of armed conflict in eastern Ukraine.

An estimated 3.7 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine, while around 6.1 million have sought refuge in Europe and beyond, according to UNHCR. A staggering 14.6 million people within Ukraine are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, and poverty levels are soaring due to displacement. The humanitarian crisis stretches beyond the borders of Ukraine, as it also affects 2.2 million refugees in neighbouring countries who are in desperate need of support. Many of these refugees, especially women, children and girls, are confronted with relentless challenges as they strive to rebuild their lives, including psychological distress, protection risks and economic hardship.

Since the start of the war in February 2022 and in response to growing humanitarian needs, IOM has been working tirelessly to address the most urgent needs, build resilience and facilitate recovery. The Organization focuses on internally displaced persons, refugees, returnees, third-country nationals, and host and affected communities. It delivers life-saving aid while scaling up efforts to address long-term socioeconomic impacts in Ukraine and neighbouring countries. The safety and protection of all those within and fleeing the country and their ability to access assistance has remained a priority.

IOM also collaborates with national and regional stakeholders to support government partners and local authorities in their response to the war. This includes providing emergency assistance to the most vulnerable populations and implementing recovery initiatives that empower households to pursue durable solutions, both in Ukraine and refugee-hosting nations.

Source: IOM

STATUS OF THE CONFLICT

Civilian Casualties in Ukraine

Izumi Nakamitsu, the UN's High Representative for Disarmament Affairs told the Security Council, “42 percent of casualties in Ukraine in November resulted from the use of long-range weapons launched by the Russian Federation, a significant increase from previous months.”

She also provided the Security Council today (Dec 20) an overview of the human impact of the war in Ukraine, saying, “Between 24 February 2022 and 30 November 2024, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded over 12,340 civilians killed and more than 27,836 civilians injured in Ukraine.”

Nakamitsu also highlighted a notable surge in aerial bomb casualties. “According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine verified data, aerial bombs killed 341 civilians and injured 1,803 from 1 January through 30 November 2024,” she said. This marked “a threefold increase in fatalities and a sixfold increase in injuries from aerial bombs compared to 2023.”

U.S. Representative Robert Wood addressed Russia's actions and China's position on the conflict. “Russia is violating resolutions of this council, which it voted for, resolutions meant to keep a rogue nation from acquiring nuclear weapons,” he said. Wood referenced previous attempts to encourage diplomacy, stating, “Nearly three years ago, we sat with the Russians in this chamber urging de-escalation, negotiations, peace talks, anything but war. The Kremlin did not listen then, because Putin does not listen to the words spoken.”

Wood also commented on China's approach. “China's support for Russia is in clear contradiction to the principles of the UN Charter. China has said in this council that sovereignty and territorial integrity should be respected. But if China were serious about that, it would use its influence to stop Russia from violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

He emphasized continued international support for Ukraine, adding, “Russia listens only to strength and action, something we collectively lacked when Russia invaded Crimea and when it invaded Georgia before that. Appeasement didn't work then, and it won't work now. That is why the United States, and our partners will continue supporting Ukraine and the UN Charter's fundamental principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Russia's Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzya addressed the Council, placing responsibility on Western actions for the conflict's origins. “If the United States had not supported the coup d'état in Kyiv in 2014, not sponsored it, not made Ukraine into an anti-Russia… then there wouldn’t be war at all,” he said.

Nebenzya also referred to a recent incident in Moscow. “On the 18th of December in Moscow, there was an explosion, as a result of which the Head of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense Forces Gen. Kirilov was killed, as well as his assistants.” He claimed Ukrainian involvement, stating, “This was done at the behest of the Kyiv regime. The next day, the perpetrator of this act of terror was apprehended, and he confirmed that he had been recruited by the Ukrainian special services.”

China’s Representative Geng Shuang emphasized the importance of negotiations and reducing hostilities. “The current situation regarding the Ukraine issue is changing. Both parties to the conflict have released political signals to the outside world, clearly expressing their willingness to engage in negotiations,” he said.

Geng Shuang noted a shift in international discussions. “This fully demonstrates that the momentum for a ceasefire and restoration of peace is growing,” he stated, calling on external actors to support diplomatic efforts. “We hope that the United States will face up to the changes in the situation, stop clamoring for war, stop obstructing the efforts of the international community for peace, and come to the right track of promoting a political settlement to the crisis at an early date.”

Ukraine's Permanent Representative Sergiy Kyslytsya addressed recent attacks on Ukrainian cities, pointing to a pattern of military escalation preceding key Security Council meetings. “We have already drawn the Council's attention to the clear correlation between Russian attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and Russia-initiated Council meetings. This correlation has been registered in at least 18 cases.”

He described the most recent wave of strikes. “This morning, Russia has once again prefaced a Security Council meeting with air terror against Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Kherson, and Kryvyi Rih,” he said. “In Kyiv alone, five ballistic missiles—Iskanders, or North Korean KN-23—and 40 drones of Iranian origin were launched.”

Kyslytsya detailed the resulting damage. “Residential areas in the central districts, a business center, the iconic St. Nicholas Cathedral—one of the city's architectural landmarks—and energy infrastructure sustained damage and destruction. Diplomatic missions of Albania, Argentina, North Macedonia, Portugal, Montenegro, and Palestine were also damaged. Tragically, the attack resulted in casualties and injuries.”

He concluded by reiterating Ukraine's call for an end to hostilities. “To the regular flood of lies and disinformation that I mentioned earlier in my statement, Putin's envoy has added crocodile tears about human suffering and destruction. I remind in this regard that there is a simple way for Russia to end sufferings and destruction caused by the war—to end the war itself.”

Source: UNifeed

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December 19-20, hostilities in front-line areas and attacks in several urban centres killed and injured civilians and caused damage to apartment blocks, hospitals and schools, according to authorities.

In the capital Kyiv, one person was reportedly killed and 10 others injured when an attack damaged the roofs of several buildings, including a cathedral and a business centre. That’s according to authorities and aid workers, who say heating was also disrupted to more than 630 apartment buildings and 30 health and education facilities.

Attacks in Kryvyi Rih and Kherson also killed and injured civilians and damaged civilian infrastructure, including homes and hospitals. In Kherson, a vehicle belonging to an aid organization was damaged while transporting a patient to hospital. Fortunately, no injuries were reported.

In Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, humanitarians supported first responders by providing initial medical and psychosocial assistance to people affected by the attacks and distributing emergency shelter kits to address the damage.

Ukraine’s state energy company reports that workers are repairing damaged facilities and doing what they can to stabilize the power grid. They note that the country’s energy infrastructure is still recovering from 12 large-scale Russian attacks since the start of this year, which have caused major power shortages.

Source: UNOCHA

HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE

Angelus - December 22, 2024

Tormented Ukraine continues to be struck by attacks against the city, which at times damage schools, hospitals, and churches. May the weapons be silenced and Christmas carols resound! Let us pray for a ceasefire on all war fronts, in Ukraine, the Holy Land, in all the Middle East and the entire world, at Christmas. And with sorrow I think of Gaza, of so much cruelty; of the children machine-gunned, the bombing of schools and hospitals... So much cruelty!

La martoriata Ucraina continua ad essere colpita da attacchi contro le città, che a volte danneggiano scuole, ospedali, chiese. Tacciano le armi e risuonino i canti natalizi! Preghiamo perché a Natale possa cessare il fuoco su tutti i fronti di guerra, in Ucraina, in Terra Santa, in tutto il Medio Oriente e nel mondo intero. E con dolore penso a Gaza, a tanta crudeltà; ai bambini mitragliati, ai bombardamenti di scuole e ospedali… Quanta crudeltà!

Links to the full text in ENGLISH and ITALIAN

General Audience - December 18, 2024

E poi, cari fratelli e sorelle, preghiamo per la pace. Non dimentichiamo la gente che soffre per la guerra: la Palestina, Israele, e tutti colori che stanno soffrendo, Ucraina, Myanmar… Non dimentichiamo di pregare per la pace, perché finiscano le guerre. Chiediamo al principe della pace, al Signore, che ci dia questa grazia: la pace, la pace nel mondo. La guerra, non dimentichiamo, sempre è una sconfitta, sempre! La guerra sempre è una sconfitta.

Links to the full text in ITALIAN