Weekly Update #153
February 3, 2025
February 3, 2025
Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe
6,303,200
Last updated January 16 2025
Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay
Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe
560,200
Last updated January 16 2025
Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay
Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally
6,863,400
Last updated January 16 2025
Estimated number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ukraine (as of Aug 2024)
3,669,000
Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities
Source: Migration Data Portal
Operational Context
The beginning of the year has seen intensified fighting along the frontline areas, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, resulting in civilian casualties, widespread destruction of homes, hospitals, and critical infrastructure, exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation. The violence has also triggered further displacement, with over 1,600 people, including children, fleeing frontline areas in the first two weeks of January.
On 11 January, authorities reported the evacuation of 132 people, including 12 children from frontline areas of Donetska oblast. On 23 January, 267 children were evacuated from high-risk areas in Velykoburlutska and Kindrashivska hromadas in Kharkiv oblast. On 24 January, authorities in Donetsk oblast announced the mandatory evacuation of families with children from 25 additional settlements in Kryvorizka and Komarska hromadas. More than 110 children remain in these high-risk areas.
Interviews conducted at transit centers in Izium and Kharkiv City have highlighted needs for financial assistance, medical supplies, and safe shelter. Some displaced individuals have expressed the need for mental health support, underscoring the ongoing challenges to overall well-being in the affected people.
As of 4 January, according to Kharkiv authorities, there are approximately 530,000 internally displaced persons in the oblast, including 200,000 in Kharkiv city. 76 Collective Centres (CCs) accommodate nearly 8,000 IDPs, including 1,024 children and 550 individuals with limited mobility.
Health Cluster Response:
In 2025, 10 Health Cluster partners, in collaboration with local authorities, continue to deploy mobile medical teams to provide essential healthcare services and mental health and psychosocial support. In January alone,Health Cluster partner teams delivered essential health services to 578 people in two designated transit centers in Kharkivska and Dnipropetrovska oblasts.
Since late August 2024, following the escalation of hostilities in Donetska and Kharkivska regions and the resulting large-scale evacuations, Health Cluster partners have reached over 5,500 people with medical and MHPSS support.
To ensure a comprehensive response, the Health Cluster is coordinating with the Protection Cluster to facilitate referrals, enabling the elderly, disabled and other vulnerable groups access humanitarian assistance.
Source: Health Cluster, WHO
Olga Dolinina, Local Correspondent in Ukraine, highlights how economic initiatives can support peacebuilding as well as recovery.
Since the war in Ukraine began, the country has faced immense social, political, and economic challenges. Millions of people have been displaced, infrastructure has been destroyed, and livelihoods have been severely disrupted. In addition, there are 3,669,000 Internally Displaced People[1] (IDPs) in Ukraine. As of October 2024,[2] there are 6,752,000 refugees from Ukraine recorded globally.
As a result, the economy faces significant challenges, including labour shortages due to military mobilisation, energy infrastructure damage from Russian attacks, and the need for extensive reconstruction. As of 31 December 2023, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine was US$486bn over the next decade.[3]
In this light, economic initiatives can therefore support war-affected people by fostering stability through job creation, reducing poverty and addressing inequalities. They encourage cooperation across communities, empower local populations, and provide sustainable livelihoods, thereby reducing conflict drivers and promoting social cohesion essential for long-term peace.
This article will examine how these initiatives have supported social cohesion at a community level, in regards to IDPs, and how they have aided veterans to reintegrate society as seamlessly as possible.
Efforts to reduce poverty across Ukraine and elevating living standards
As Ukrainians were faced with leaving their homes and communities due to the escalation of conflict, numerous individuals lost their jobs and the sense of dignity that comes with having one. To address this problem, a governmental platform with vacancies in all sectors was created, providing learning courses and free vouchers for professional skilling, reskilling or upskilling to allow war-affected people to join trainings programmes delivered by the state, civil society organisations or private companies.
In parallel, local businesses have been paired with education platforms to develop and suggest free reskilling online courses and employment counselling. For example, Kyiv-based education platform ‘Prometheus’ helps people on competitive basis to acquire new professions such as project manager, sales manager, auditor, or marketing expert. The programme makes a significant impact on economic stability of people. In practice, that means someone trained in digital marketing or a reskilled project manager can help to run local businesses to support the national economy. Also, this reskilling initiative empowers displaced people through jobs, provides economic stability and also restores dignity and hope.
Some local organisations like the ‘Right to Protection Foundation‘ provide not only career counselling for war-affected people and IDPs but also humanitarian help, legal aid, free courses for entrepreneurs, and other services. By helping war-affected people to meet both their basic needs and opportunities in skilling and reskills, the CSO promotes social and economic integration and helps people to reintegrate in the community and foster stability.
Also, microgrants are provided to promote gender equity and women’s leadership by organisations like Ukrainian Women’s Fund (UWF). The Fund actively supports initiatives to develop women’s entrepreneurships in Ukraine through providing grants, professional trainings, mentorship on ecologically responsible goods and services, technological innovations, social responsibility, fashion and design, health and beauty, education and consultations, tourism and hospitality. The Fund hopes its programmes for women can drive social and economic recovery, foster equity, sustainability, and resilience.
Integrating IDPs into host communities
The conflict in Ukraine has displaced millions of people, many of whom face significant challenges in integrating into new communities. The Platform for Social Change in Ukraine runs a programme that empowers IDPs and local community members by fostering social enterprises. This initiative provides training in business management, marketing, and financial planning, and offers grants to help participants launch community-oriented enterprises. This project, which spanned from 2023 to 2024, has focused on empowering women and youth among IDPs, fostering economic self-sufficiency, and enhancing social cohesion between displaced individuals and host communities through shared economic activities and collaboration.
At the same time, in northwestern city Lutsk Volyn Perspectives launched a project supporting the integration of IDPs from minority backgrounds. This initiative includes workshops on entrepreneurship, civic engagement, and leadership for IDPs, along with psychological counselling and roundtable discussions to address integration challenges. The project is part of a broader effort to foster social cohesion and support minority communities in Ukraine, helping IDPs enhance their economic opportunities and actively engage in community life.
Infrastructure & the environment
Rebuilding critical infrastructure in conflict-affected areas is essential for promoting economic recovery and long-term peace. Because of the war, agriculture fields are contaminated by mines. Out of 14 million hectares, only 3 million hectares have been demined. A number of local and international organisations, such as Ukrainian Deminers Association and others, are supporting efforts to clear landmines from agricultural lands, especially in eastern Ukraine.
This initiative compliments financial grants to enable safe farming activities that increase food security and promote sustainable agricultural practices in war-affected regions of Ukraine, which can reduce tensions over land resources and support food production.
Also, local initiatives in Ukraine have focused on restoring infrastructure, including schools, healthcare facilities, and roads. Not only do they create jobs but also help restore trust in local governance, as communities see tangible improvements in their daily lives.
For example, the city of Voznesensk invested money in the production of solid fuel briquettes. This helped turn organic matter (such as branches from tree pruning) into heat for households. Having access to locally produced fuel and energy is precious, especially at a time when there are disruptions to gas and electricity supplies.
The post-war recovery will have a significant impact on the country’s development for many years. Therefore, it’s important to focus on sustainable energy, energy-efficient buildings and infrastructure like using solar panels.
By promoting environmental sustainability alongside economic growth, local organisations are helping to create resilient communities that can withstand future economic, environmental, or conflict-related challenges and bring peace in the community. One of the organisations, EcoAction, has a programme focused on promoting the inclusion of green elements and environmental security.
Reintegration of veterans
There are initiatives to empower veterans through entrepreneurship, provide them with essential resources and support networks, and strengthen their role in rebuilding social and economic resilience in Ukrainian communities. Veteran Development Centres focus on long-term reintegration strategies for veterans. Located in educational institutions across Ukraine, these centres provide job training, entrepreneurial skills, and social reintegration programmes. They also work to foster community ties by offering veterans opportunities to participate in local economic activities. By empowering veterans to create sustainable livelihoods, the programmes help to reduce the risk of social unrest and fosters a sense of community among veterans and civilians alike.
For veterans and their family members, there are special grant programmes to start or develop businesses, and programmes to help with the relocation of businesses to safe regions. The Ukrainian Veterans Fund has launched a joint project with NPC Ukrenergo – a programme called ‘Razom’ (‘Together’) – where veterans have the opportunity to acquire skills for new careers in the energy sector and are guaranteed employment.
Conclusion
Russia's brutal war against Ukraine has had significant negative consequences for Ukrainian economy, businesses and the financial sector, including a decrease in business activity, income, and production due to population displacement and lower spending capacity.
In parallel, integration of millions of Ukrainian refugees into the labour market in Ukraine will pose a significant challenge, yet it is essential for both the refugees' successful resettlement and Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery. A large proportion of these refugees are women with young children or school-aged dependents.
Through local efforts, communities in conflict-affected regions are being empowered to rebuild their lives and contribute to long-term peace and stability. These initiatives demonstrate that economic development is not only essential for recovery but also a key pillar in the broader peacebuilding process. By investing in local economic initiatives, Ukraine is not only rebuilding its economy but also fostering the conditions necessary for sustainable peace.
Source: Peace Direct
A network of NGOs wrote this letter appealing for an immediate cessation of the conflict. Specific incidents causing civilian deaths describe the extent of the impact of the conflict.
As we are about to witness the three-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine since Russian’s full-scale invasion, civilians are bearing the brunt of the war. The conflict remains volatile with an intensified frontline in East Ukraine, the counter-offensive of Russian armed forces in Kursk region and a renewed global wave of attacks by the Russian Federation on populated areas and especially targeting energic infrastructures. This combination is resulting in devastating consequences, as lives and livelihoods continue to be destroyed, and people are forced to flee their homes. The use of landmines, cluster munitions and the extensive use of explosive weapons in populated areas poses additional threats to civilians with lasting consequences.
2024 has proven to be even more deadly than 2023, representing a 22% raise of civilian casualties, 10 491 civilians have been either killed or injured so far this year[1]. Moreover, the number of civilian casualties from aerial bombs has significantly increased compared with last year, with fatalities rising threefold and injuries increasing sixfold compared to 2023. From September to November 2024, aerial bombs killed 108 civilians and injured 755 in Ukraine, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU).
Following two joint statements in 2024, we are, once again, highlighting the significant incidents[2] that have occurred from October to December, demonstrating that the massive use of explosive weapons in populated areas continued to excessively claim civilian lives.
October 2024:
At least 183 civilians were killed and 903 injured in Ukraine in October. 45% of those killed were older than 60 years. Among the casualties, nine children were killed and 49 injured[3].
In October, short-range drone attacks killed 17 civilians (12 men and five women), and injured 127 (84 men, 41 women, and two boys) in areas of Kherson region controlled by Ukraine[4].
Multiple aerial bombardments and a missile attack in Zaporizhzhia City killed at least three men and a woman, and injured 77 civilians (38 men, 31 women, and eight girls)[5].
Almost daily aerial bombardments of Kharkiv City killed at least eight civilians (three men, three and two boys) and injured 88 (45 men, 39 women, three boys and one girl)[6].
On 9 October attacks on Kharkiv City, have killed at least two people and injured more than 30, including a teenager.
Six attacks on several vessels and port infrastructure in Odesa region killed at least 15 civilians (12 men, two women and one girl) and injured 37 (27 men and ten women), including port workers and members of ship crews[7].
On 14 October, an attack on Odessa’s port resulted in one person killed and eight injured, according to Ukrainian authorities[8].
On 28 October, a guided bomb attack on Kharkiv City on Monday shattered much of the Derzhprom buildings. Six people were injured in the 9 pm strike, adding to 13 wounded in an earlier overnight bomb attack on the city. Moreover, in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, a missile struck a three-storey residential building, killing one person and wounding at least 11[9].
November 2024:
Only in November, 301 incidents of explosive weapon use that resulted in civilian casualties were reported in Ukraine, according to the Explosive Weapon Monitor and at least 165 civilians were killed and 887 injured. Among the casualties, eight children were killed and 57 injured[10].
On 5 November, a missile attack in Zaporizhzhia City killed eight civilians (seven men and one woman) and injured 24 (19 men and five women).
On 7 November, aerial glide bombs killed nine civilians (four men, four women and one boy) and injured 42 (21 women, 17 men, three boys and one girl) in Zaporizhzhia City.
On 17 November, a coordinated missile and loitering munitions attack damaged 17 energy infrastructure facilities in 11 regions. The attack also resulted in 6 civilians killed and at least 14 injured, including two children, nationwide power outages, and damage to housing and property.
On 17 November, a missile attack struck a residential area in Sumy, killing 11 civilians (five women, four men, one boy and one girl) and injuring 74 (32 men, 27 women, eight boys and seven girls).
On 18 November, loitering munitions killed 12 civilians (seven women, four men and one boy) and injured at least 6 injured (three women, one man, one boy and one girl), the majority of whom were internally displaced persons, in Hlukhiv, Sumy region.
On 18 November, nine civilians, including a child, were reportedly killed, and 11, including two children, injured during an attack in Hlukhiv.
On 25 November,[11] a FPV-drone strikes a humanitarian aid distribution site in Solonchaky, in Mykolayiv region, killing a civilian.
On 28 November,[12] shelling of a bus stop kills four civilians in occupied Nova Kakhovka, in Kherson region.
On 26 November, 26 November, artillery shells struck a bus close to a bus stop in occupied Nova Kakhovka (Kherson region), killing at least three women and injuring ten civilians (eight women and two men).
On 28 November, a coordinated missile and loitering munitions attack damaged 17 energy infrastructure facilities in 11 regions, further exacerbating the difficult electricity situation in Ukraine. The attack also injured at least one civilian (a woman).
On 30 November, a missile struck residential areas in Tsarychanka village (Dnipropetrovsk region), damaging a moving bus. Three women were killed and 24 civilians (13 women, ten men and one boy) injured.
December 2024:
On 6 December, aerial glide bombs struck a car repair shop in Zaporizhzhia City, reportedly killing ten civilians and injuring 24, including three children.
On 10 December[13], a business centre was hit by a ballistic missile in Voznesenivskyi District of Zaporizhzhia City, killing 11 civilians and injuring at least 22, as well as damaging a medical facility, an office building, a restaurant, nearby residential buildings, and several vehicles.
On 15 December[14], a countrywide attack saw at least one drone impacting the energy infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv City, injuring at least two civilians and one ballistic missile impacting the ground of Kyivsky District, injuring one female civilian and damaging a multi-storey residential building.
On 20 December[15], ballistics and aeroballistics missiles launched on Kyiv resulted in one person killed and 11 injured, with damages reported on multiple residential and commercial buildings, industrial facilities, a church, and vehicles. As a result of a hot water pipeline being damaged during the attack, the heat supply was suspended to over 630 residential buildings, 16 hospitals and 30 educational facilities in the Holosiivskyi District.
On 24 December[16], ballistic missile killed one and injured 11 civilians in Kryvyi Rih, damaging as well nearby residential buildings, shops and vehicles.
On 26 December[17], at least five aerial guided bombs were launched on several settlements of Kharkiv Region, killing one civilian, injuring another one and damaging an enterprise, an administrative building, power distribution lines, a residential area, and vehicles.
Beyond the appalling civilian’s death toll, these massive attacks over towns and villages also have major reverberating humanitarian consequences. The incidents continue to trigger compounded multisectoral needs among the population – in shelter, health, rehabilitation, protection, mental health support and cash assistance. Additionally, it is causing lasting risks of injuries to the population, due to the tremendous number of explosive remnants of war littering the Ukrainian territory.
In this joint statement, we, humanitarian organizations operating in Ukraine, condemn Russia’s indiscriminate attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, including healthcare facilities and essential infrastructure, and urged Russia to stop the systematic missile strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure. We strongly denounce these assaults that inflict suffering on civilians and consistently disregard international humanitarian law (IHL) and international human rights law (IHRL). This includes breaches of the principles of distinction, proportionality, and feasible precautions, as well as the use of indiscriminate attacks and internationally banned weapons like landmines and cluster munitions.
Globally, civilians account for 84% of casualties caused by mines and explosives remnants of war. In Ukraine, by November 2024, 412 civilians have been killed and 954 have been injured by mines or Explosive Remnants of War. Antipersonnel mines can still kill or injure civilians decades later, hindered humanitarian access and strongly impact socio-economic recovery. We call:
Both parties to the conflict to:
Renounce the use of banned weapons such as antipersonnel mines and cluster munition, to accede to the Convention on Cluster Munition.
Stop the use of explosive weapons with wide area effect on populated areas and facilitate rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access.
Ukraine to comply with its obligations under the Mine Ban Treaty
Russia to adhere to the Mine Ban Treaty, a pilar of IHL.
/END/
Signatories: Action Contre la Faim (ACF), AQLITY, Help Age, International Rescue Committee (IRC), Norwegian People’s Aid (NPA), Oxfam, Première Urgence Internationale (PUI), Solidarité Internationale (SI), Triangle Génération Humanitaire (TGH), Ukrainian Red Cross Society
Sources: ACF, HelpAge, HI, 7 more
Between May-September 2024, the PAX Protection of Civilians (PoC) program conducted desk-top research on the main causes of civilian harm in the Ukraine war, as well as on efforts by a range of Ukrainian actors to seek to mitigate and address some of that harm. This research was complementedby Key Informant Interviews, our team’s own field visits, and the work of PAX’s Ukraine program more broadly. The result is an analysis of protection-related challenges, best practices, and lessonsidentified from the war in Ukraine that can help inform the scaling of states’ CHM – or broader PoC – roles, capabilities, and activities in the event of LSCO.
This is the first of the PAX Briefing series. PAX works to build just and peaceful societies across the globe. PAX brings together people who have the courage to stand for peace
Context
The concept of CHM – sometimes also referred to as civilian harm mitigation and response (CHMR) – was developed in the context of counterinsurgency and stabilization operations. It refers to efforts by armed groups, militaries, and nations to prevent, reduce, and address the harm resulting from military operations and, importantly, goes beyond compliance with International Humanitarian Law (IHL). As states are considering how CHM efforts can be scaled to fit large-scale combat operations (LSCO), this briefing provides eight key takeaways from the ongoing war in Ukraine, providing an initial reflection on the application of CHM in LSCO contexts.
Civilian harm has been widespread in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, following an earlier phase of lower-intensity conflict in its Donbas region that began in 2014. As of September 2024, use of force in the war directly caused 12,000 confirmed civilian deaths and injured 25,000 more, although the actual numbers are likely higher.
The vast majority of harm is caused by the operations of the Russian Armed Forces (RAF). There is strong evidence that points to the RAF deliberately using strategies and tactics that maximize civilian harm, such as the deliberate targeting of critical infrastructure, the use of human shields, siege tactics, and so-called ‘double tap’ strikes. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have also been linked to several direct civilian harm incidents, mostly related to misfire and the malfunctioning of Ukrainian air defenses or their generating explosive debris.
Eight key takeaways for CHM in LSCO
Consider harm from own actions, as well as harm from the actions of others.
It is particularly important to complement a focus on mitigating and responding to civilian harm caused by own military operations with attention for harm caused by the operations of other conflict parties. As a good practice example, from September 2022 onwards, AFU senior leadership ordered AFU units to track and report on RAF-caused civilian harm. CHM considerations informed Ukraine’s decision to redeploy certain of its (limited) military air defence assets away from the front lines and towards urban areas, to better protect civilians against RAF operations. Successful mitigation of harm from own and others’ actions also helps preserve societal cohesion and resilience, preserving morale among the general population.
Take into account both the methods and means of warfare.
Successful CHM involves identifying opportunities to prevent and minimize civilian harm through chosen military methods as well as military means. The AFU has in several instances shown a commitment to do so. Prior to the outbreak of large-scale conflict in February 2022, the AFU had identified the use of mortars as a key source of harm and subsequently introduced a measure to require a higher level of authorization for their use. The AFU also refrained from using heavy artillery in its advance on the cities of Kherson and Kharkiv in an effort to minimize civilian harm and material damage.
Specific weapon systems are widely banned and condemned by the international community because their use is associated with excessive and/or indiscriminate harm to civilians. These include the reported use of anti-personnel landmines and cluster munitions. To prevent unacceptable levels of harm, militaries should never resort to the use of such weapons.
Enhance preparedness for (large-scale) civilian evacuations.
The state should be prepared for large-scale population movement and the need to organize civilian evacuations and clearly plan for the military role therein. In Ukraine, this emerged as a key CHM measure. Crucially, the war in Ukraine shows that this also requires preparedness for (long-term) post-evacuation support to help convince civilians to leave at-risk areas and to prevent further harm from occurring through being uprooted.
Mainstream CHM throughout the military apparatus
Large-scale conflict creates pressure on (scarce) military resources, with the potential to undermine civilian harm mitigation and response efforts. Faced with an intense operational tempo and many (competing) military needs, this resource scarcity – in terms of personnel, technological equipment, limited time for training new recruits, and so on – contributed to a situation where CIMIC officers were often underutilized or assigned different tasks, eroding the AFU’s CHM capabilities. The risk of this occurring in other LSCO scenarios can be mitigated by ensuring that, during peacetime already, the CHM concept is sufficiently mainstreamed or socialized throughout the military apparatus.
Anticipate and recognize protection challenges related to civilian resistance efforts.
The war in Ukraine shows that in the event of LSCO and specifically where it concerns a situation of territorial defense, civilians will take up an active role to support their own troops and engage in resistance efforts. Armed forces must be prepared to facilitate civilian support while remaining mindful of the risks this may pose to civilians. Ukrainian volunteers providing humanitarian deliveries to frontline areas, for instance, sometimes did so while wearing tactical clothing or driving armored vehicles. It is important to anticipate such types of civilian behavior, recognize and weigh the associated protection risks against their benefits, identify what potential negative impact it may have on humanitarian operations writ large, and be prepared for corresponding CHM measures.
Enhance preparedness for mitigating harm from information warfare.
Hostile information operations by Russian or Russia-affiliated actors have – at an unprecedentedscale – emerged as a cause of significant civilian harm in Ukraine. The importance of the information domain as an area of warfare and cause of civilian harm will likely be a recurring characteristic of LSCO scenarios. To that end, it is important that states prepare for hostile information operations. It further supports the importance of developing dedicated civilian harm tracking, investigation, and reporting capacities, which help enable combating disinformation that specifically seeks to discredit the military through false claims of civilian harm.
Set up large-scale dedicated civilian harm response funds
At the current time, Ukraine is understandably struggling to find a suitable answer to this amidst an ongoing war and fight for survival. Nonetheless, it has launched various promising initiatives. Response needs in all areas – damaged property, loss of relatives, loss of income, support to survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (CRSV), psychosocial needs – far outstrip current capacity. It is understandable that within this context Ukraine is pursuing legal reparations, but these do little to address current needs. It is more important to enhance preparedness in peace time by setting up dedicated civilian harm response funds which can serve to address some of the most immediate needs and so prevent the exacerbation of harm.
Develop a civilian-centered response framework
The war in Ukraine once again emphasizes the importance of taking a civilian-centered approach to the design and implementation of CHM measures generally, and response measures specifically. Many of Ukraine’s notable and laudable initiatives, such as the eRecovery program display some shortcomings where it concerns meeting the practical needs and realities of victims of harm. These include stringent requirements regarding proving home ownership, for instance, that do no reflect the practical reality of home ownership in many more rural areas of Ukraine
Such shortcomings can be prevented by including civilians or relevant civil society organizations in earlier phases of planning and design of response measures.
Source: PAX
With the support of the FCDO, the Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED) distributed 40 mini-grants to groups of volunteers in eight communities of Kharkivska and Zaporizka oblasts, which have been severely affected by the ongoing war, to implement early recovery actions. This initiative aims to involve and empower local civil society to ensure the good recovery of their community, respecting their needs and wishes.
The village of Shevchenkove, located in Shevchenkivska hromada, Kharkivska Oblast, has been occupied by the Russian forces in the early months of the war and liberated. This occupation caused severe damage, and it is now time to rebuild and look ahead. Three projects have been selected to receive a mini-grant in this village, to improve the daily lives of the 3,780 residents.
Oleksii*, one of the volunteers who applied for a mini-grant, developed a brand new rehabilitation room funded thanks to it. Dedicated to the physical rehabilitation of veterans and people with brain injuries, this room is equipped with two massage tables, one of which is portable, an electric treadmill, cycle trainers, rehabilitation equipment, massage kits and first aid kits for real-life use and training. These training kits, consisting of defibrillators and anti-bleeding strips, will be used to organise first aid training with doctors and residents of the Hromada, for free.
This rehabilitation room is located in a first aid center, and free medical services will be provided by the medical team there. For Oleksii,it was essential to open such a place because there are a lot of ex-combatants and people suffering from chronic diseases aggravated by the war who live in the Hromada and need care. The first aid centre also has a mobile brigade that provides care in the neighbouring hromadas, in 60 villages. People from these places can’t afford to come to Shevshenkove, so it’s essential to go there with a medical team. The mobile brigade is now able to provide rehabilitation services.
In front of the first aid center, Olha* also proposed a recovery project to be funded by Acted Mini-Grant: a bicycle shelter recently constructed. This employee of the city council explains that 80% of the inhabitants of the village use bicycles as cars are too expensive. The location of this bicycle parking is strategic as the administrative and medical buildings are located in the same block, attracting lots of people every day. Before, bikes and prams were parked against the wall or directly on the floor. The pediatrician is in one of these medical buildings and the moms didn’t know where to leave their prams. Now they are very happy to have this bike shelter to protect the prams and bicycles from the rain and the snow.
* Names have been changed to protect the identity of the individuals.
In eastern Ukraine, Moscow's war machine is gradually churning mile by mile through the wide open fields of the Donbas, enveloping and overwhelming villages and towns.
Some civilians are fleeing before the war reaches them. Others wait until the shells start exploding all around them before packing what belongings they can carry and boarding trains and buses to safety further west.
Russia is gaining ground more quickly than at any time since it launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, despite Kyiv's impressive record of well-publicised asymmetric attacks against its powerful neighbour.
As the invasion reaches the end of its third year, at an estimated cost of a million people, killed or wounded, Ukraine appears to be losing.
It feels like an inflection point. But could 2025 really be the year when this devastating European conflict finally comes to a close - and if so what could the endgame look like?
Trump's promise to end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office is a typically grandiose boast, but it comes from a man who has clearly lost patience with the war and America's costly involvement.
But the incoming US administration faces twin challenges, according to Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"First, they're going to inherit a war on a very negative trajectory, without a tremendous amount of time to stabilise the situation," he said in December. "Second, they're going to inherit it without a clear theory of success."
The president-elect offered some clues during recent interviews about how he intends to approach the war.
He told Time Magazine he disagreed "vehemently" with the Biden administration's decision, in November, to allow Ukraine to fire US-supplied long-range missiles at targets inside Russia.
But to those who fear, as many do, that America's new leader is inclined to walk away from Ukraine, he offered hints of reassurance.
The truth is: Trump's intentions are far from clear.
And for now, Ukrainian officials reject all talk of pressure, or the suggestion that Trump's arrival necessarily means peace talks are imminent. "There's a lot of talk about negotiations, but it's an illusion," says Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of President Zelensky's office. "No negotiation process can take place because Russia has not been made to pay a high enough price for this war."
For all Kyiv's misgivings about negotiating while Russian forces continue their inexorable advance in the east, it's clear that President Zelensky is anxious to position himself as the sort of man Trump can do business with.
The Ukrainian leader was quick to congratulate Trump on his election victory and wasted little time sending senior officials to meet the president-elect's team. With the help of France's President Emmanuel Macron, Zelensky also secured a meeting with Trump when the two men visited Paris for the reopening of Notre Dame cathedral.
What we're seeing now is a very smart strategy exercise by President Zelensky," his former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told the US Council on Foreign Relations in December.
Zelensky, he said, was "signalling constructiveness and readiness to engage with President Trump." With little obvious sign that the Kremlin is making similar gestures, the government in Kyiv is clearly trying to get ahead of the game.
Even before the US election, there were signs that Zelensky was looking for ways to bolster Ukraine's appeal as a future partner for a president-elect like Trump who is both instinctively transactional and reluctant to continue underwriting wider European security.
As part of his "Victory Plan", unveiled in October, Zelensky suggested that battle-hardened Ukrainian troops could replace US forces in Europe after the war with Russia ends. And he offered the prospect of joint investments to exploit Ukraine's natural resources, including uranium, graphite and lithium.
But other elements of the Ukrainian leader's Victory Plan - Nato membership and its call for a "comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" - seem to have met with a lukewarm response among Kyiv's allies. Nato membership in particular remains a sticking point, as it has been since well before Russia's full-scale invasion.
For Kyiv, it's the only way to guarantee the country's future survival, against a rapacious Russian enemy bent on subjugating Ukraine.
But despite declaring last July that Ukraine was on an "irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including Nato membership" the alliance is divided, with the US and Germany not yet in favour of issuing an invitation.
President Zelensky has indicated that if an offer of membership was extended to the whole country, within Ukraine's internationally-recognised borders, he would be willing to accept that it would apply, initially, only to territory under Kyiv's control.
This, he told Sky News in November, could end the "hot stage" of the war, allowing a diplomatic process to address the question of Ukraine's final borders.
But, he said, no such offer had yet been made.
If not Nato, then what? With the possibility of Trump-led peace talks looming and Ukraine losing ground on the battlefield, the international debate is all about shoring up Kyiv's shaky position.
Without concrete mechanisms akin to the sort of collective defence concept embodied by Article 5 of Nato's founding treaty, observers fear there will be nothing to prevent another Russian attack.
In European policy forums, experts have been looking at ways in which Europe might help to shoulder this heavy responsibility.
Ideas have included the deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine (a proposal first floated last February by Macron), or the involvement of the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force, which pulls together forces from eight Nordic and Baltic countries, plus the Netherlands.
In the absence of agreement on Ukraine's long term future, its allies are doing what they can to bolster its defences.
In December, Nato's secretary general, Mark Rutte, said "everything" was being looked at, including the supply of additional air defence systems, in part to protect the country's battered energy infrastructure from a renewed wave of coordinated Russian missile and drone attacks.
With Ukraine continuing to experience severe shortages of manpower, the UK Defence Secretary John Healey said the government might be willing to send British troops to Ukraine to help with training.
For its part, the departing Biden administration seems determined to deliver as much congressionally approved military assistance as it can to Ukraine before leaving office, although reports suggest it may run out of time to send everything.
On 21 December it was reported that Trump would continue to supply military aid to Ukraine, but would demand that NATO members dramatically increase their defence spending.
Kyiv's allies have also continued to ratchet up sanctions on Moscow, in the hope that Russia's war-time economy, which has proved stubbornly resilient, may finally break.
After multiple rounds of sanctions (fifteen from the EU alone), government officials have grown wary of predicting their successful impact.
But recent indicators are increasingly alarming for the Kremlin. With interest rates at 23%, inflation running above 9%, a falling rouble and growth expected to slow dramatically in 2025, the strains on Russia's economy have rarely seemed more acute.
Along with Russia's staggering losses on the battlefield – western officials estimate that Moscow is losing an average of 1,500 men, killed and wounded, every day – the cost of this war could yet drive Putin to the negotiating table.
But how much more territory will Ukraine have lost - and how many more people will have been killed - by the time that point is reached?
Source: BBC
Russian forces are expanding their salient north of Kupyansk as part of long-term operational efforts to push Ukrainian forces from the east (left) bank of the Oskil River.
Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna (Kupyansk-Borova-Lyman) line gradually intensified in September 2024 after a relatively low tempo period in early and mid-2024 during which Russian forces primarily conducted infantry assaults and occasional platoon-sized mechanized assaults in the area. Ukrainian forces repelled a reinforced battalion-sized Russian mechanized assault near Pishchane (southeast of Kupyansk) in late September 2024 – the first large Russian mechanized assault in this direction since Winter 2023-2024. Russian forces have recently intensified offensive operations north of Kupyansk, particularly near Dvorichna, as part of this broader intensification in the Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman directions.
Russian forces are also leveraging mechanized assaults to expand their salient north of Kupyansk. Russian forces have conducted five company-sized mechanized assaults and at least one reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Kupyansk direction since late October 2024.
Source: ISW
US President Donald Trump’s executive order to pause all United States foreign development assistance and the subsequent stop-work and stop-spending directives from Secretary of State Marco Rubio will have far-reaching effects in Ukraine, where Russia’s full-scale invasion will soon enter its fourth year.
A wide range of USAID-funded programs providing critical relief in sectors affected by the war, including health care, agriculture, psychological and legal support to veterans, and initiatives to address war crimes are now threatened by the orders.
For some war-affected communities, USAID’s work on reconstruction of damaged civilian infrastructure has been lifesaving. Stopping that work raises serious concerns for the safety of people in those areas.
The stoppage is also a devastating setback for the many programs aimed at developing and strengthening Ukraine’s democracy, which Ukrainians have fought to protect despite the full-scale Russian invasion, and other critical programming in place for years.
Another initiative at risk is the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which provides global funding for HIV treatment, prevention, and research. Suspending these disbursements in Ukraine could cost lives. According to Dmytro Sherembei, board chair of 100% Life, Ukraine’s largest organization for people living with HIV, America’s longstanding support to Ukraine prevented what could have been one of the most severe epidemics of HIV, tuberculosis, and hepatitis in Europe after Russia’s invasion.
“When the war began and everything was paralyzed, PEPFAR’s support enabled us to quickly purchase and distribute lifesaving antiretroviral therapy for approximately 126,000 [people living with] HIV nationwide, ensuring 18 months of treatment,” Sherembei told me.
This specialized treatment is not available in pharmacies and cannot be paused or postponed without jeopardizing years of previous therapy. “Thanks to PEPFAR, every second HIV patient in Ukraine has been diagnosed and received treatment. With limited [Ukrainian] government funding, there is no alternative to this program for us. You cannot simply put lives on pause.”
While the new administration assesses the effectiveness of these and other foreign assistance programs, the three-month pause could undermine progress that has already been made. The US should continue assistance programs while conducting its review to avoid the stoppage’s likely harmful implications in Ukraine and across the globe.
Source: HRW
USAid pause affects projects such as veteran rehabilitation, independent media and humanitarian assistance.
Ukraine is reeling from the shock decision by the Trump administration to pause all US foreign aid programmes immediately, as a variety of projects in the country – from military veteran rehabilitation programmes to independent media and anti-corruption initiatives – have effectively been stopped overnight.
It was seen as inevitable that the incoming administration would overhaul USAid, the US development agency, but there was an expectation that spending on Ukraine, or at least some of the most critical programmes, would be subject to a waiver – or there would at least be a winding-down period.
Instead, a “stop work” order issued last Friday has left hundreds of projects without funding, initially for a 90-day review period. Attempts by the Kyiv USAid office to save funding for some of the most important programmes have reportedly been rebuffed in Washington.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said his government would prioritise the most important USAid-funded programmes and try to cover them with alternative funding solutions.
“This was the worst-case scenario,” said George Chewning, the executive director of US-Ukraine Veterans Bridge, an organisation devoted to fostering links between military veterans in the two countries. He said several partner organisations in Ukraine had suddenly found out their projects would no longer be continued. One, Veteran Hub, said it was closing a telephone hotline that had provided support and counselling to traumatised veterans.
For veterans’ organisations, the cuts could not have come at a worse time, said Chewning, as Donald Trump’s desire to negotiate an end to the war could result in hundreds of thousands of newly demobilised veterans needing to re-integrate into society. “All our partners are now scrambling for additional funding, which was not easy to come by in the first place,” he said.
USAid also handled a large number of regional humanitarian aid projects, many of which were left pondering how to fill the newly created gaps, and without any idea what would remain after the three-month review period.
The US development agency was also a supporter of many of Ukraine’s independent media outlets.
Bohdan Lohvynenko, the founder of the Ukraïner online news portal, said more than 80% of the site’s funding came from the US, and the outlet was now in serious trouble.
Source: The Guardian
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated on January 31 that the UK will provide Ukraine with a military assistance package valued at two billion GBP (about $2.5 billion), primarily for the purchase of air defense systems and funding for the localization of defense production in Ukraine. Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen announced on January 31 that Finland will provide Ukraine with a new tranche of military assistance valued at almost 200 million euros (about $207 million). Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky stated on January 31 that the Czech government is considering creating a new initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine.
Source: ISW
And with regard to the primary value of human life, I reiterate a “no” to war, which destroys; it destroys everything, it destroys life and induces us to disregard it. And let us not forget that war is always a defeat. In this Jubilee year, I renew my appeal, especially to Christian governors, to do their utmost in the negotiations to bring all the ongoing conflicts to an end. Let us pray for peace in tormented Ukraine, in Palestine, Israel, Lebanon, Myanmar, Sudan and North Kivu.
E a proposito del valore primario della vita umana, ribadisco il “no” alla guerra, che distrugge, distrugge tutto, distrugge la vita e induce a disprezzarla. E non dimentichiamo che sempre la guerra è una sconfitta. In questo Anno giubilare, rinnovo l’appello, specialmente ai Governanti di fede cristiana, affinché si metta il massimo impegno nei negoziati per porre fine a tutti i conflitti in corso. Preghiamo per la pace nella martoriata Ucraina, in Palestina, Israele, Libano, Myanmar, Sudan, Nord Kiwu.
Links to the full text in ENGLISH and ITALIANCaritas Ukraine supports the most vulnerable communities – elderly women and young people –
who are most affected by the conflict (courtesy of Caritas Ukraine photo stream).