Weekly Update #42
December 19
December 19
SITUATION AT A GLANCE
CONFLICT EVENTS
Source: https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/?layer=conflict_events
Aerial attacks on cities and critical civil infrastructure—including power stations and centralized heating systems—across Ukraine by Russian Government forces since early October continue to result in widespread electrical, water, and heating shortages. As of November 30, Russian attacks had damaged or destroyed more than 50 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure,
Due to repeated missile attacks on energy infrastructure, 12 million Ukrainians have been disconnected from the electricity grid and all of Ukraine’s thermal and hydroelectric power plants have been damaged. This situation is compounded by the onset of harsh winter conditions and plummeting temperatures, aggravating the existing humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
Access to humanitarian aid
An international NGO, ACAPS (Assessment Capacities Projects), has undertaken an analysis of the access of people to humanitarian aid. Their report recently released aims to provide a comprehensive comparison of access challenges across different oblasts in Ukraine to inform humanitarian responders and support decision-making. This analysis is based on a severity model that ACAPS developed using data collection from secondary sources publicly available as at 31 October 2022, complemented by 17 key informant interviews.
The access constraints analyzed in this report involved the access of people to humanitarian aid, the access of humanitarian responders to the affected population, and security and physical constraints.
OBLASTS WITH THE HIGHEST ACCESS CONSTRAINTS
Access constraints remain high across all oblasts along the frontline. The presence of non-government controlled areas (NGCAs), which hampers the free movement of civilians and humanitarians, continues to drive these constraints. Shelling and air strikes also cause safety and security concerns and impede the provision of water and electricity.
The biggest shift in access constraints since early September occurred in Kharkiv, where a counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces between 10–13 September removed the presence
of Russian forces from most of the oblast’s territory. In Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the frontline has remained largely unchanged except for some small Ukrainian advances. On the Kherson and Mykolaiv front, Ukrainian forces have regained some territory in Beryslav raion.
MAIN FINDINGS
The report identified specific oblasts and their levels of humanitarian access.
Luhansk
Access constraints remain very high in Luhansk as most of the oblast, except for a small area in the east, is currently not under the control of the Government of Ukraine. Constraints on civilians’ ability to access assistance and on humanitarians’ capacity to reach the population in need are severe, although detailed information on the specific constraints for both is not available. A relatively low level of ground conflict also characterises the situation in Luhansk compared to other oblasts along the frontline. Despite the lower level of conflict, Luhansk oblast has the second lowest number of responders operating as part of the international humanitarian response after Kherson.
Zaporizhzhia
The Vasylivka checkpoint is the only regulated crossing point along the frontline for people wishing to travel between Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia GCAs and NGCAs). In Zaporizhzhia, travel from the NGCA towards the GCA significantly slowed down in late September and October because of administrative constraints related to Russia’s claimed annexation of the oblast.
Most of the assistance to the oblast is concentrated in Zaporizhzhia city, with little distribution towards rural areas and communities near the frontlines. Local volunteer groups are the only ones providing assistance to these communities, although access is not always guaranteed because of restrictions by the Ukrainian military.
Kherson
Humanitarian access is possible, including by international responders, to Kherson government-controlled areas. These territories are slowly expanding as a result of the military offensive, which gained control of 90 settlements between 12–26 October. Kherson is the oblast with the lowest number of humanitarian responders within the international cluster system.
The evacuation of civilians by Russian forces from Kherson city further into NGCAs is increasing concerns over forcible population displacement. Disruption of health services: as part of the evacuation, Russian forces have shut down municipal hospitals, taken away equipment, and forced doctors to move to Russia.
Donetsk
Access constraints in Donetsk oblast are still high because of the presence of NGCAs and active ground conflict. Donetsk is the oblast with the second-highest number of reported mine incidents among oblasts along the frontline and had the highest number (37%) of newly recorded damage to civilian infrastructure between September–October throughout Ukraine.
Mykolaiv
Mykolaiv oblast has lower access constraints than the other oblasts along the frontlines as only a small part remains under the control of Russian forces. That said, shelling and air strikes continue to hamper the free movement of civilians and humanitarians, drive additional displacement, and impede the delivery of services, particularly water.
International organisations and government workers centre their operations in Mykolaiv city, while local volunteers are the ones who travel to remote areas and locations more exposed to conflict and shelling. Military checkpoints restrict mobility, especially nearer communities along the frontlines.
Kharkiv
Humanitarian access in Kharkiv has improved since the Government of Ukraine regained control of most of the oblast. Kharkiv is the oblast with the highest number of access events involving mines in the country, affecting civilian movement, humanitarian operations in newly accessible areas, and the pace of reconstruction. when access was initially restored in Kharkiv oblast, it was only possible in localities along main tarmac roads. Villages and smaller settlements in northeast areas remained very difficult to access.
Active ground conflict prevents the repair of infrastructure and restoration of services in areas closer to the frontlines, where the population continue to live in basements or other shelters given the risk of shelling. People exit their shelters to access aid from distribution points, but to do so, they expose themselves to harm from shelling.
Key factors in accessing humanitarian aid
Funding: a lack of money was among the reported factors limiting the operation of Ukrainian NGOs and volunteer groups.
Local response capacity continues to be strained as volunteers and local staff increasingly become physically and mentally exhausted. Several local responders have reported staffing shortages.
Population in remote areas: access to services for the population in remote areas continues to be a concern, even in oblasts not experiencing active ground conflict. IDPs in remote areas need to reach urban centres to address administrative problems.
People Access to information: there continues to be a lack of a centralised information source for people in need of assistance in more remote areas are also more likely to experience gaps in service delivery.
Security protocols: the escalation in air strikes across the country has led to some local responders integrating additional security protocols in their decision-making. These measures keep their staff and supplies safer but uneven responses.
Details are available in the full report.
Source: https://www.acaps.org/country/ukraine/crisis/conflict
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT
IDP ESTIMATES
IOM released results of the 11th round of the General Population Survey of the Ukraine Displacement Report.
As of December 5th, IOM estimates 5.9M IDPs are displaced across Ukraine. This represents a slight decrease compared to 6.5M as of the end of October. Among these, 680,000 have been newly displaced within the last 30 days, however. Most of these new displacement movements took place from locations in the East (43%) and South (25%).
As temperatures in Ukraine reach -10 degrees Celsius, and despite the attacks, which are knocking out power supply and heating systems, data collected show that only 7% are currently considering to leave their location nation-wide. Even in case of prolonged cuts to all key utilities without a timeline for repair, the majority (two out of three Ukrainians) say they would not leave their homes.
At the same time, private resources for survival are becoming scarce, as 43 per cent of all households in Ukraine have completely exhausted their savings. To reduce costs, 63 per cent of respondents have reported that they are rationing their use of gas, electricity, and solid fuel.
Across Ukraine, est. 785,000 IDPs currently plan to integrate in their current location. The largest proportion of IDPs seeking local integration reside in the East (eqv. to 206,000) and West (eqv. to 201,000). Regardless of their ultimate durable solutions preferences, two thirds of IDPs nation-wide anticipate needing to remain in their current location for at least 6 additional months at time of survey. Among IDPs who hope to integrate in their current location, 44 per cent express the need for integration support.
Sources: https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/?layer=conflict_events
CIVILIAN CASULTIES
(As of December 11, 2022)
Total civilian casualties from 24 February to 12 December 2022
From 24 February to 12 December 2022, OHCHR recorded 17,362 civilian casualties in Ukraine:
• 6,755 killed (2,656 men, 1,804 women, 174 girls, and 212 boys, as well as 38 children and 1,871 adults whose sex is yet unknown)
• 10,607 injured (2,312 men, 1,661 women, 221 girls, and 310 boys, as well as 250 children and 5,853 adults whose sex is yet unknown)
In Donetsk and Luhansk regions alone:
• 9,525 casualties (4,005 killed and 5,520 injured), with 7,395 casualties (3,511 killed and 3,884 injured) . On Government-controlled territory: 7,454 casualties (3,528 killed and 3,926 injured). On territory controlled by Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups: 2,071 casualties (477 killed and 1,594 injured)
Total civilian casualties from 1-11 December 2022
OHCHR recorded 249 civilian casualties:
• 67 killed (34 men, 11 women, as well as 22 adults whose sex is yet unknown); and
• 82 injured (52 men, 43 women, 4 girls, 1 boys, as well as 82 adults whose sex is yet known)
Civilian casualties in Ukraine from 24 February to 11 December 2022, per month
THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE
Needed: a long-term perspective and strategy
Russian forces continue to target cities and infrastructure across Ukraine with aerial attacks, resulting in civilian deaths and injuries and causing widespread electrical, water, and heating shortages.
The World Bank projects Ukraine’s economy to shrink by 35% this year. Inflation looks to spike to 30%. Ukraine’s health system is “facing its darkest days in the war so far,” according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Nearly half of Ukraine’s energy grid was knocked out by Russia’s recent strikes. Practically all big thermal and hydroelectric power plants have been damaged. People across the country are suffering from serious degradation of essential services, including access to clean water, sanitation, fuel, and electricity. Regions are implementing rolling blackouts.
A second urgent need is to move from on-the-fly assistance to more structured and sustainable long-term support. Steps are being taken on the military front. The Pentagon is standing up a new joint forces command in Germany, called the Security Assistance Group Ukraine, to train and equip Ukraine’s military for what is likely to be a long haul. The European Union’s Military Assistance Mission will also train Ukrainian forces, and its European Peace Facility (EPF) continues to finance arms deliveries. However, those transfers have already exhausted nearly all of the EPF’s €5.7 billion budget, originally intended to last until 2027. Either a dedicated Ukraine support fund needs to be established, or the fund needs to be replenished. EU leaders are discussing a plan to add another €5.5 billion to the kitty.
The Biden administration has pledged an additional $53 million-worth of equipment to help Ukraine repair its energy infrastructure, and is pressing others to give similar aid. But it is now clear that ad hockery will no longer do; a more sustainable effort is required. Washington and other allies are looking to set up a group to coordinate on energy infrastructure, much like the U.S.-initiated Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which coordinates arms shipments among dozens of countries. While this is an important step, consideration might be given to embedding coordination on energy within a broader resilience coordination support mechanism, since disruption is not limited to the energy sector alone.
Allies must go beyond critical infrastructures to review key industries, financial flows, strategic ports and transportation nodes, supply chains, communications and information networks, and other connective tissues that bind allied societies together. For instance, Germany and Norway have urged NATO to set up a resilience hub to coordinate the police, maritime authorities, and communications of littoral countries of the Baltic and North Seas.
Allies must also be prepared to project resilience forward to non-NATO partners. Allies should complement their efforts at forward defense, which stop at NATO’s edge, with a comprehensive strategy of forward resilience, which would extend to vulnerable democratic partners beyond NATO’s borders. Together with the EU, they should make it a strategic objective to help countries like Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia resist Russian destabilization and disruption.
Resilience may begin at home, but in today’s deeply interconnected world, no nation is home alone.
Sources: https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-complex-emergency-fact-sheet-4-fiscal-year-fy-2023
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European Union continues support to Ukraine
The European Union demonstrated its continued support to Ukraine by recently taking two significant actions:
1. Adoption of ninth package of sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
In response to Russia’s continuing war of aggression against Ukraine and the gravity of the current escalation against civilians and civilian infrastructure, the Council adopted a ninth package of sanctions. The agreed package includes a series of measures intended to hit hard Russian economy and abilities to continue its aggression.
The new measures include bans on:
exports of drone engines
exports of dual-use goods and technology
investments in the mining sector
transactions with the Russian Regional Development Bank
the provision of advertising, market research and public opinion polling services
The EU has also suspended the broadcasting licenses of four additional Russian outlets and has sanctioned an additional 141 individuals and 49 entities.
2. Provision of additional humanitarian aid and civil protection assistance
In addition to calling on immediate cessation of Russian missile aggression, it encourages
European industry and international partners to provide a sustainable supply of priority energy and heating equipment to Ukraine. In addition, The European Union will also maintain its support for displaced persons, both within and outside Ukraine.
In this context, the European Union has agreed to provide EUR 18 billion of assistance to Ukraine in 2023. For this purpose, the European Council welcomed the G7 agreement to establish a multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform.
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UN Humanitarian Response
The UN has mobilized a wide range of partners in the response to the Ukraine crisis. This effort is coordinated under the Office of the Commissioner for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Collectively with 707 partners at present, the effort has been scaled up to meet the massive and urgent relief and protection of Ukraine’s refugees and displaced populations.
The map presents the operational presence of these partners in the various parts of the country and the clusters of work they response has covered. A complete list of the organizations is found in the link below.
Source: https://www.unocha.org/ukraine
HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE
General Audience - December 14, 2022
E rinnoviamo la nostra vicinanza al martoriato popolo ucraino, perseverando nella preghiera fervorosa per questi nostri fratelli e sorelle che soffrono tanto.
Fratelli e sorelle io vi dico: si soffre tanto in Ucraina, tanto, tanto! E io vorrei attirare l’attenzione un po' sul prossimo Natale, anche le feste. È bello festeggiare il Natale, fare le feste…ma abbassiamo un po' il livello delle spese di Natale – così si chiamano. Facciamo un Natale più umile, con regali più umili. Inviamo quello che risparmiamo al popolo ucraino, che ha bisogno, soffre tanto; fanno la fame, sentono il freddo e tanti muoiono perché non ci sono medici, infermieri a portata di mano. Non dimentichiamo: un Natale, sì; in pace con il Signore, sì, ma con gli ucraini nel cuore. E facciamo quel gesto concreto per loro.
Links to the full text in ITALIANAngelus - December 18, 2022
Let us ask the Virgin Mary, whom the liturgy invites us to contemplate on this Fourth Sunday of Advent, to touch the hearts of those who can stop the war in Ukraine. Let us not forget the suffering of those people, especially of the babies, the elderly, the people who are sick. Let us pray. Let us pray.
Alla Vergine Maria, che la liturgia ci invita a contemplare in questa quarta domenica di Avvento, chiediamo di toccare i cuori di quanti possono fermare la guerra in Ucraina. Non dimentichiamo la sofferenza di quel popolo, specialmente dei bambini, degli anziani, delle persone malate. Preghiamo, preghiamo!
Links to the full text in ITALIAN and ENGLISH
The Conference of European Churches (CEC) together with the Commission of the Bishops’ Conferences of the European Union (COMECE) highlights a message of love, hope and peace this Christmas, for Ukraine and beyond. Addressing all churches and people across the continent, celebrating Christmas in diverse traditions, CEC President Rev. Christian Krieger and COMECE President H. Em. Card. Jean-Claude Hollerich SJ have issued the following message.
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