Weekly Update #71
July 10

Following the first, second and third regional reports on the intentions of refugees from Ukraine and the first report of the intentions of internally displaced people (IDPs) within Ukraine, this fourth report presents updated findings regarding intentions of refugees and IDPs, to provide a comparative view of intentions and the different underlying factors influencing decision-making.

KEY FINDINGS:

Most refugees and IDPs still hope to return to their place of origin in the future, but for the time being, the majority plan to continue to stay in their current displacement location. In general, return intentions have remained stable over time.
While the intentions of refugees and IDPs strongly depend on the security situation in their places of origin and the status of their dwellings, they are also influenced by specific household characteristics as well as their current socio-economic situation.
While the main enabler for return for refugees and IDPs is an end to the war and the related safety risks, having access to basic services, housing and livelihoods are also important enablers of and barriers to sustainable return to their areas of origin.
Findings across both populations suggest a very clear distinction between the profiles of displaced persons who have been able to go for short-term visits to their place of origin and those who have not.
The socio-demographic characteristics and the level of access to basic services and rights in their current location varies among refugees and IDPs according to the capacities or vulnerabilities of different groups.

STATUS OF THE CONFLICT

500 DAYS OF WAR

6.3 million Ukrainians have become refugees, according to the United Nations' refugee agency (UNHCR)
9,083 civilians have been killed in Ukraine, according to the latest figures from the UN's rights office (OHCHR); the real toll, however, is feared to be much higher
15,779 civilians have been wounded in Ukraine, according to the OHCHR
Military casualties on both sides of the war are difficult to establish and verify; the warring sides often estimate rival losses, and are understood to downplay their own
The cost of destruction is thought to be more than $143bn*, according to the latest findings from the Kyiv School of Economics
It is estimated that Russia controls less than 20 percent of Ukrainian territory

REFUGEES and IDPs

The conflict has led to the fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II, with 6.3 million people forced to flee Ukraine since the invasion on February 24, 2022. The vast majority of them - 5,967,100 - went to other European countries.

An additional six million are internally displaced within Ukraine.

Most refugees are women and children, as Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 have been instructed to remain in the country and fight.

The infographic below highlights the flow of refugees recorded from Ukraine across Europe between June 1, 2022 and July 7, 2023, as well as some of the painful stories of those forced to leave their homes.

The countries with the largest refugee populations are Russia, with 1,275,315; Germany, with 1,076,680; Poland, with 999,690; the Czech Republic, with 350,455; and the United Kingdom, with 206,700.

Data Source: UNHCR

CIVILIAN CASULTIES

The OHCHR estimates that 9,083 civilians have been killed in Ukraine and 15,779 wounded since Russia's invasion.

But these numbers are believed to be underestimates.

In territory controlled by the Ukrainian government, the OHCHR has recorded at least 20,073 casualties (7,072 killed and 13,001 wounded):

In the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 9,966 casualties (4,105 killed and 5,861 wounded)

In other regions: 10,107 casualties (2,967 killed and 7,140 wounded)

In territory occupied by Russia, the OHCHR has recorded at least 4,789 casualties (2,011 killed and 2,778 wounded):

In the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 3,239 casualties (718 killed and 2,521 wounded)

In other regions: 1,550 casualties (1,293 killed and 257 wounded)

Data Source: OHCHR

MILITARY CASULTIES

Estimating military casualties is difficult as Ukrainian and Russian forces are likely downplaying their losses, while there is a lack of timely and reliable data.

According to Ukraine’s defence ministry, Russian personnel losses stand at 231,700 troops “liquidated” as of July 5.

According to the British Ministry of Defence, in the first year of the war, there were up to 200,000 casualties among Russian army troops and private military contractor forces, such as those deployed by the Wagner Group. This likely included between 40,000 to 60,000 killed.

More recently, according to an assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency leaked in April this year, Russia has suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 total casualties, including 35,500 to 43,000 killed in action and 154,000 to 180,000 wounded.

The US says Ukraine has suffered up to 131,000 total casualties, including up to 17,500 killed in action and up to 113,500 wounded in action.

DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE IN UKRAINE

A World Bank report in March stated that it will cost Ukraine $411bn over the next 10 years to recover and rebuild from the war - that is twice its pre-war gross domestic product.

Businesses have suffered significant damages, amounting to at least $11.3bn, a sum that is expected to increase as the war drags on. The cost of damages to Ukraine’s usually thriving agricultural sector is about $8.7bn.

According to the Kyiv School of Economics, the cost of replacing damaged buildings and infrastructure is believed to top $143.8bn.

CONTROL IN UKRAINE

A year ago, more than 20 percent of Ukraine was understood to be occupied after Russia captured key cities and strategic ports.

However, that estimate now stands at less, below 20 percent and according to some researchers, could be as low as 17 percent, as Ukraine fights to liberate its lands.

In the first months of the war, Russian troops moved swiftly to capture swaths of territory from northeastern Ukraine, namely around the capital, Kyiv, and the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv.

Map Source: Institute for the Study of War

Source : 500 days of war in Ukraine: At what cost?

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ASSESSMENT, JULY 8, 2023

Five hundred days ago Russia launched an unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine. The Russian military intended to take Kyiv within three days but failed to accomplish any of its intended objectives in Ukraine. Determined and skillful Ukrainian resistance has forced the culmination of multiple Russian offensives including the one aimed at Kyiv and has liberated Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, as well as the parts of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts that Russian forces had temporarily seized. Ukrainian forces have secured and retained the initiative and are conducting counteroffensive operations along most of the frontline with Russian forces focused almost entirely on trying to hold on to the Ukrainian lands they still occupy. With Western assistance, Ukraine has ensured its independence but faces the critical task of liberating the strategically vital territory still under Russian control.

US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl noted on July 7 that current Ukrainian operations across the front are the “beginning of the middle” of the wider counteroffensive and that it is therefore “too early to judge” how the counteroffensive is going. Advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office Mykhaylo Podolyak also emphasized on July 8 that Ukrainian forces are focusing on the destruction of Russian manpower as part of the first phase of counteroffensive operations and noted that the initial phase of the counteroffensive is focused on shaping the battlefield. ISW continues to assess that the current pace of Ukrainian counteroffensives is reflective of the deliberate and strategic effort to create an asymmetrical attrition gradient to conserve Ukrainian combat power and attrit Russian manpower and equipment at the cost of slower territorial advances.

The United States announced a new military aid package for Ukraine that includes cluster munitions on July 7. The $800 million aid package includes dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICMs), and more ammunition for Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS MLRS systems. US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US is providing cluster munitions to Ukraine due to the “urgency of the moment” to equip Ukrainian forces with artillery ammunition to use against Russian military targets during the counteroffensive.

Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed 131/136 drone and missile strikes against Ukraine's industrial and infrastructure facilities overnight from July 7 to 8.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Ukraine “deserves NATO membership” ahead of the July 11 to 12 NATO summit in a press conference on July 7 in Istanbul with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky returned to Ukraine from Turkey with five Ukrainian commanders involved in the defense of Azovstal Metallurgical Combine in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast whom Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey had previously agreed would remain in Turkey until the end of the war.

Ukrainian intelligence indicated that Russian authorities are capitalizing on the fear of a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to drive out Ukrainian personnel and increase the Russian presence at the ZNPP ahead of the upcoming NATO summit.

The implications of the Wagner armed rebellion for Wagner forces and Prigozhin remain unclear, but Ukraine has already benefited from the rebellion and may benefit even further.

Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov reported on July 4 that Ukrainian forces are performing their main task of destroying Russian manpower, equipment, fuel depots, artillery, and air defenses and that a “war of destruction is equal to a war of kilometers.” Danilov’s assessment underlines the prioritization of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized maneuvers to regain large swaths of territory rapidly. NATO Military Committee Chair Admiral Bob Bauer reported on July 3 that Ukrainian forces are correct to proceed cautiously and avoid high casualties in the counteroffensive and acknowledged that the counteroffensive is difficult due to landmines and other obstacles up to 30km deep into Russian-occupied territory. Bauer stated that Ukrainian forces should not face criticism or pressure for moving slowly.

Sources: ISW (July 8 Update)

ISW (July 4 Update)

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False and misleading posts about the Ukraine conflict continue to go viral on major social media platforms, as Russia's invasion of the country extends beyond 500 days.

Some of the most widely shared examples can be found on Twitter, posted by subscribers with a blue tick, who pay for their content to be promoted to other users:

Weapons for Ukraine not used in French riots
No evidence of 'baby factories' in Ukraine
Kramatorsk missile not Ukrainian
Zelensky has not cancelled elections

Source: BBC

THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE

To date, UNHCR has contributed to 17 interagency convoys that delivered over 60 truckloads of crucial supplies to over

20 villages and towns in the Dnipro and Kherson regions, including Kherson city. From 26 – 27 June, UNHCR conducted a protection assessment in five flood-affected villages in Mykolaivska oblast.

Humanitarian organizations in Ukraine continued mobilizing assistance to support the people impacted by the Kakhovka Dam destruction to address their immediate needs.

In the past month, with the support of the Logistics Cluster, UN agencies and humanitarian organizations delivered 19 inter-agency humanitarian convoys to Dnipropetrovska and Khersonska oblasts, bringing almost 80 truckloads of water, food, medicines, repair materials, household items and other essential supplies to the people whose lives and livelihoods have been affected by flooding, as well as water shortages caused by the destruction of the dam. Of these, 14 convoys were delivered to Kherson city and other communities in Khersonska oblast.

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Cluster partners have delivered over 4.3 million litres of bottled and trucked potable water since 6 June. Humanitarians have also been providing water treatment units and water purification tabs to affected communities. Partners have facilitated water pumping from submerged premises, disinfection of wells, household clean-up and repairs, installation of pump units and unblocking of sewage networks. To provide more durable solutions, WASH Cluster partners have reinforced the immediate response by supporting the drilling of boreholes for water production, including by delivering pumps, tap stands, water treatment units and water storage. Additionally, where feasible, repairs to water networks through connection to alternative water sources have started, providing water treatment support for surface and groundwater alternatives to complement the Government efforts.

To support people, mainly in the south of Ukraine, many of whom had lost their homes due to heavy flooding on top of the destruction caused by attacks and hostilities, Shelter Cluster partners continued coordinating assessments and delivering essential repair and household supplies to affected families. Almost 65,000 repair items and household supplies have been distributed in Khersonska oblast, including over 1,600 emergency shelter kits. More than 3,200 people in Mykolaivska oblast have received basic non-food supplies to support their daily lives.

Health Cluster partners continue outreach activities through mobile medical teams providing people with primary health care, mental health and psychosocial support services. Almost 40 organizations are on the ground in Dnipropetrovska, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, Odeska and Zaporizka oblasts addressing the consequences of the dam destruction. They have provided medicines and medical supplies to people and health facilities and supported the existing surveillance mechanisms to identify suspected cases of water-borne illnesses. In addition, partners have been conducting awareness-raising activities in the affected areas on access to drinking water, safe hygiene practices, emerging health risks and preventative measures.

More than 36,000 people have already been registered to receive multipurpose cash assistance to address critical and immediate needs, and already around 12,200 people have received the support. More than 9,500 of them have been reached in Khersonska oblast. Further assessments and registrations for cash assistance are ongoing.

Child protection partners have continued to respond to the humanitarian needs of children and their families affected by the flooding. Since the first days of the disaster, they have reached over 14,000 people, including 7,300 children and over 6,600 caregivers, by deploying multi-disciplinary mobile teams to the affected areas, providing mental health and psychosocial support, delivering essential supplies, as well ensuring child protection case management and legal assistance. Support services have also been provided through child-friendly spaces across the affected oblasts.

Humanitarian organizations will continue responding to the remaining urgent humanitarian needs in the affected communities while moving towards addressing more mid- and long-term needs. In particular, Shelter and WASH partners are mobilizing support to repair housing and critical water infrastructure. Continued assistance aims to restore disrupted livelihoods and help displaced people to return to their homes.

FOOD

In close coordination with Cooperating Partners (CPs) and local authorities, WFP assisted people within hours of the 6th June destruction of the Kakhovka dam. Since that time, more than 235,000 rations have been delivered by 30 June through direct distribution as well as 14 inter-agency convoys, in 12 hromadas in Kherson and 3 hromadas in Mykolaiv oblasts; most of them (82%) have been rapid response rations designed to cover food needs for 5 days, comprising bread, canned meat, and canned beans. 30-day rations, which also include flour, pasta, oil, oats, sugar, and salt, as well as a one-time delivery of 600 bread loaves, make up the rest (18%). People indirectly affected by the flood due to the lack of water supply were also assisted with food in the towns of Apostolove Marhanets, Nikopol, Pokrov, and Zelenodolsk in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. In such areas, other regular in-kind food distributions continued to ensure all those in need received adequate assistance.

One WFP vessel carrying 30,000 mt of wheat for Sudan moved through the Black Sea maritime corridor in June
as the future of Black Sea Initiative beyond 17 July remains unclear.
On 25 June, the very first Ukrainian fortified wheat flour for the domestic in-kind programme was delivered to WFP warehouses.
WFP led two inter-agency humanitarian missions to deliver humanitarian aid across the Inhulets river in the Kherson oblast with boats and SHERPs, in response to the Kakhovka dam destruction.

Source: UNHCR Flash Update #50, July 7

UNOCHA Flash Update #10

WFP External Situation Report #41

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Statement by the Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine, Denise Brown, on the Attack on Lviv

In the early hours of this morning in Lviv, I was jolted awake by explosions.

Another attack by the Russian Armed Forces has left people injured and killed as their homes were severely damaged in a strike while they, too, were still sleeping.

Today’s attack came just a week after the deadly attack in Kramatorsk and recent strikes in Kharkiv, Sumy and other regions of Ukraine, bringing loss and destruction to the people who continue to live through the horrors of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine.

Once again, I repeat that international humanitarian law is clear: civilians and civilian infrastructure must be protected.

The United Nations and the humanitarian community will continue to support the people of Ukraine. On behalf of the United Nations and the humanitarian community, I send my sincere condolences to the bereaved families and wish those injured a speedy recovery.

Lviv, 6 July 2023

Source: OCHAUN RC/HC Ukraine

HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE

Angelus - July 9, 2023 (Sunday)

And now I greet you, faithful from Rome and pilgrims, who, despite the July heat, are here in the square! A round of applause to all of you! I am happy to greet in a particular way the girl scouts and university students from Leopoli in Ukraine: I give you all my blessing and I extend it to your dear ones and your people, so severely tried. Let us pray for this people that suffers so much.

Ed ora saluto voi, romani e pellegrini, che malgrado il caldo di luglio siete qui in piazza! Un applauso a tutti voi! Sono contento di salutare in particolare le ragazze scout e gli studenti universitari di Leopoli, in Ucraina: vi do la mia benedizione e la estendo ai vostri cari e al vostro popolo, tanto provato. Preghiamo per questo popolo che soffre tanto.

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