Weekly Update #81
September 18

General Figures

Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe 

5,830,500

Last updated September 12 2023

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 

Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe

369,200

Last updated August 19 2023

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 

Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally

6,199,700

Last updated September 12 2023

Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities

Current Situation

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Sept. 18 that Russia had lost 272,940 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24 last year.

This number includes 620 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.

According to the report, Russia has also lost 4,623 tanks, 8,834 armored fighting vehicles, 8,571 vehicles and fuel tanks, 6,027 artillery systems, 776 multiple launch rocket systems, 525 air defense systems, 315 airplanes, 316 helicopters, 4,742 drones, and 20 warships or boats.

Ukraine Reports Some Gains as U.S. Estimates Counteroffensive Only Has Weeks Left

Ukraine is running out of time to realize substantial gains from its summer counteroffensive, according to U.S. General Mark Milley. In an interview with the BBC, Milley estimated that Kyiv had only 30-45 days of fighting left before wetter, colder weather moves in. He emphasized, however, that it was too soon to label the effort a failure, and reporting suggests that Ukraine continues to make incremental advances in Russian-occupied territory. While most recent news surrounding the war has focused on the southern front, Ukraine’s military reported some progress further east near Bakhmut and Donetsk city. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that Ukrainian forces had entered Andriivka, near Bakhmut, a development also reportedly acknowledged by a Russian military blogger. In addition, Maliar claimed that gains were made near Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, and the Donetsk airport, although international media outlets could not confirm these assertions. The reported advances amounted to only a few square kilometers, underscoring the attritional, grinding nature of the current conflict.

• During a visit to Kyiv last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged an additional $1 billion to support Ukraine’s war effort. In addition to the promised monetary aid, the Biden administration appears increasingly likely to send long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, although an official spokesperson stated that a final decision had not yet been made. Ukraine has long coveted the systems, which have significantly greater range than the U.S.-supplied HIMARS, but Washington has resisted sending them over concerns they may be viewed as an escalation by Russia. The U.S. also said that it would send controversial depleted uranium tank shells.

• Russia seems to be taking steps to bolster its own munitions stocks. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming days, leading to fears that the two countries may be close to announcing an arms deal that could see North Korea supply Russia with artillery shells and rockets.

• Beginning today, Romania and the U.S. are holding joint naval exercises in the Black Sea and Danube Delta, according to the Romanian navy. While not explicitly connected to the war, Russia has continued to target Ukraine’s ports on the Danube River in an effort to disrupt grain exports.

• Russia held elections over the weekend in the territories it occupies in Ukraine. Officials in the regions said that the vote was subject to “sabotage,” while Kyiv and the West denounced them as sham votes in violation of international law.

Researched and written by the Global Intelligence Team at AlertMedia

______________________________________________________

Continuing conflict

Ukraine’s Operations in Bakhmut Have Kept Russian Reserves Away from the South

Ukrainian forces are celebrating the liberation of two small towns south of Bakhmut, but Ukraine’s entire effort first to defend and now to conduct counter-offensive operations around Bakhmut has been the subject of much unwarranted criticism. Ukraine's defensive and counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area since summer 2022 are an operationally sound undertaking that has fixed a large amount of Russian combat power that would otherwise have been available to reinforce Russian defenses in southern Ukraine. Elements of two of Russia’s four Airborne (VDV) divisions and three of Russia’s four VDV separate brigades are currently defending the Bakhmut area. This significant Ukrainian achievement has helped prevent Russia from creating a large mobile VDV operational reserve that could have been used to stop the main Ukrainian counteroffensive effort in Zaporizhia Oblast. Continued large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts around Bakhmut are necessary to keep Russian forces fixed in that area, as the likely recent redeployment of a detachment of one VDV separate brigade from near Bakhmut to southern Ukraine shows how eager the Russians are to recoup the combat power that the Ukrainian counteroffensive around Bakhmut is fixing there.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has commented on the slow progress during the counteroffensive during Scott Pelley's 60 Minutes programme on CBS, saying it is now important for Ukrainian defenders to move forward, even if only for short distances, and not give Putin a break.

Ukraine and Russia each fire 40,000 shells per day across the front line, which stretches over 1,000 kilometers through Ukrainian territory, CBS reported during a "60 Minutes" interview with President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sept. 17.

Ukraine's Armed Forces explain significance of Klishchiivka’s liberation: springboard for further action

By liberating the settlement of Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have created a springboard that would allow the development of upcoming offensive operations.