Weekly Update #94
December 18

REFUGEE SITUATION

(as of 12 December 2023)

Mapping of Collective Sites in Ukraine

(as of November 2023)

Collective sites are areas where internally displaced populations are hosted and provided with assistance on their basic needs.  Many of such sites are schools and dormitories.

STATUS OF THE CONFLICT

(as of 17 December 2023)

THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE

Humanitarian Situation

The humanitarian situation has become increasingly dire as Russia intensifies its air attacks.

A wave of airstrikes on many of Ukraine’s regions overnight left scores of civilians injured and damaged critical infrastructure, including energy and water systems. The capital Kyiv was particularly affected, with many homes, a hospitaland a kindergarten damaged in at least four of the capital’s 10districts, impacting hundreds of people.

The new strikes come on top of the relentless fighting and daily attacks in the south and east of the country, which also continued over the past days, particularly impacting communities close to the front line.

According to security and humanitarian reports, airstrikes similar to today’s appear to have increased over the past few days and may indicate a new wave of the so-called “winter” attacks. If this predicted trend transpires, it

is likely to lead to a further deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and impact the response, similarly to last winter.

At the same time, yesterday's cyberattack on one of Ukraine’s largest mobile operators impacted millions of people's access to vital public services that relied on Kyivstar as both wireless and wired Internet service provider, including the banking system, postal services, as well as air raid notification systems that experienced interruption or unstable operations throughout the country.

Humanitarians are mobilizing emergency assistance in the aftermath of recent attacks. They have also stepped up response activities to address specific humanitarian needs caused or exacerbated by the cold season and have reached over 800,000 people already, in addition to the regular aid to help millions suffering the consequences of the war.

Humanitarian Response

Humanitarian organizations are working tirelessly to provide immediate response to support people in the aftermath of attacks and address specific humanitarian needs caused or exacerbated by the cold season in Ukraine.

In Kyiv, aid organizations, including the Ukrainian Red Cross Society (URCS) and the national NGOs Right to Protection and Rokada, provided immediate emergency assistance such as blankets and hot meals for 400 people, and medical and psychosocial support. Furthermore, humanitarians installed two warming points and registered people impacted by the strike for cash assistance, complementing the efforts of the authorities to find accommodation for people whose houses had been damaged. 

Earlier on 11 December, the NGO Mission Proliska provided more than 20 affected families with construction kits, plastic tarpaulin sheets and compressed wood sheets to repair damaged houses following an attack that damaged homes and other infrastructure in Kherson City. Similarly, on 8 December, Mission Proliska supported hundreds of people whose houses were damaged during strikes on Kharkiv City in eastern Ukraine and Yurivka Town in Dnipropetrovska Oblast, central Ukraine.

At the same time, humanitarian partners, including 45 national and international NGOs and UN agencies, have stepped up efforts to support people with specific assistance to face the harsh winter, reaching over 800,000 people across Ukraine between October and November. This is almost half the 1.7 million people targeted with winter support in the 2023 - 2024 Ukraine Winter Response Plan. 

Over 105,000 were supported with winter heating and the same number of people with winter clothes. Additionally, more than 80,000 people received critical household items, amongst other of assistance. Humanitarians reported the highest number of people reached with winter response across Ukraine in Sumska Oblast, which borders the Russian Federation in the north and has the lowest below-zero temperatures in winter, with more than 75 per cent against the target. 

The highest number of people reached among the front-line oblasts are in Kharkivska and Dnipropetrovska oblasts (nearly 45 per cent) in the east and centre of Ukraine. While in Donetska, Zaporizka and Khersonska oblasts, in the east, south-east and south of Ukraine, the number of people reached with life-saving winter support is 20 to 30 per cent.

Source: OCHA

Humanitarian Access Severity

January to October 2023

UPDATES ON INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

• The EU has decided to open membership negotiations with Ukraine, in an unexpected move that will be a critical boost to Volodymyr Zelenskiy and deal a blow to Vladimir Putin. The announcement, made on Thursday after eight hours of tense negotiations in Brussels, came despite the opposition of Hungary, whose prime minister, Viktor Orbán, had for weeks said it would veto any opening of accession talks. After hours of talks, Orbán walked out the room as leaders formally made the decision to open accession talks – thus getting unanimity.

The decision took place at a summit in Brussels despite abstention from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who left the room during the vote. The launch of talks with a country at war is a historic step for the bloc, which also agreed to begin accession discussions with Ukraine’s neighbor Moldova and to grant candidate status to Georgia.

• Ukraine aid from US in doubt after failed Senate vote. Senate Republicans have blocked a move to pass an aid bill for Ukraine after failing to secure border compromises they sought in exchange.

The $110bn (£87.3bn) package included $61bn for Ukraine, as well as funds for Israel and aid for Gaza.

The White House has warned that US funds for Ukraine could soon run out.

A Ukrainian official said that failure to secure more US aid would mean a "very high possibility" that the war will be lost to Russia.

While Republican members are generally in favour of aid to Ukraine, some have sought to use the issue as a way to address mounting domestic concerns over the US Republicans are insisting that any aid to Ukraine be tied to sweeping US immigration and asylum reforms.

Earlier on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden said he was "willing to make significant compromises on the border" in order to get the aid bill passed.

• Hungary blocked a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine hours after EU leaders agreed to open accession talks with Kyiv.  Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that discussions around the EU’s shared budget and aid for Ukraine would not continue, but would be pushed back to an extraordinary EU leaders’ meeting in January.  Rutte is optimistic on a Ukraine aid deal in January, at the end of the first day of the summit.

• Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo is likewise positive a deal on €50 billion in aid to Ukraine can happen — next year.  With Belgium about to take on the Council of the European Union’s rotating presidency, De Croo will be the one trying to tie up a deal on extra budget funding, among other things, in the early weeks of the new year.

• Japan expands sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine.  Japan has expanded its sanctions targeting Russia over its war in Ukraine, banning Russian diamonds for non-industrial use and adding dozens of firms and organisations to its trade blacklist. The expanded export blacklist announced on Friday includes 57 organisations in Russia and six organisations in the United Arab Emirates, Syria, Uzbekistan and Armenia. The latest measures bring the total number of Russian organisations under sanctions to 494.

Twenty-seven entities from Belarus, one of Russia’s closest allies, have also been sanctioned.  The expanded sanctions come after the Group of Seven (G7) countries earlier this month held a virtual summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to show solidarity with Kyiv.

Under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan has taken a tougher stand against Moscow than any other country in the region, where governments have been hesitant to take sides in the war. During the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May, Kishida pledged “unwavering solidarity” with Ukraine while condemning attempts anywhere to use force to change the status quo.

Sources: Aljazeera

BBC

The Guardian

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Europe isn’t giving Ukraine the consistency it needs right now

The European Union’s decision to open negotiations with Ukraine to join the bloc on Thursday night is both a tangible step forward and a major symbolic moment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had spent the past few days telling his European counterparts how important joining the EU was to Ukraine.

But the celebrations in Kyiv were tempered when just hours later, the EU said it had not been able to reach an agreement on sending a $55 billion tranche of new funding for Ukraine.

This is far more than a fly in the ointment for Ukraine. It comes after months of fears among Ukrainian and other European officials that the West – so united in its strength for Ukraine since February 2022 – had finally tired of the endless talks about helping Ukraine.

In the past few months, particularly since the Israel-Hamas conflict has pulled attention from Ukraine, the sense of overall Western fatigue on Ukraine has felt more acute for officials. The spats over money in the US have dovetailed with disputes in Europe in a way that creates an overall picture of Western weariness.

It’s in this context that Thursday’s EU announcements must be seen.

Yes, joining the bloc is a key priority, but the EU’s complicated procedures mean it could still take over a decade and requires the war to be over, one way or another. That means wartime Ukraine will never actually benefit from EU membership, whatever the next decade holds.

And given how hard it was to reach Thursday’s deal, it’s important to remember that throughout the whole accession process, there will be ample opportunities for member states to dig their heels in – most notably Hungary. Any country that is currently a net recipient of EU funds will be worse off if Ukraine joins the bloc, while net contributors will see their EU membership fee go up. Europe supports Ukraine, sure, but money speaks in the EU.

The EU’s inability to reach a deal on funding presents arguably the more immediate problem for Ukraine as, frankly, Kyiv needs cash to keep fighting this war.

But both the announcements on money and accession reveal the biggest political problem for Ukraine in Europe: consistency.

Officials all over Europe have for some time been briefing anyone who will listen that consistency is ultimately the most important thing for Ukraine right now. Ukraine needs to know when and how much money is coming on a purely practical level.

On a political level, Ukraine needs to know exactly how solid support is from its major allies and where the weak links are. Kicking the financial support plan down the road into next year doesn’t mean that the holdouts will suddenly change their minds. More likely, they will actually find other reasons to play politics.

The inconsistency of the past few months from its allies has had a negative impact on Ukraine. In the zero-sum world of geopolitics, this has equated roughly as bad for Ukraine, ergo good for Russia.

The situation is not beyond repair, diplomats and officials insist. But it does require consistency on everything from rhetoric to action. And Thursday night’s positives, officials say, were massively outweighed by the negatives of Europe’s inconsistency.

Source: CNN

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Western officials warn Ukraine is ‘certain to fail’ against Russia if US doesn’t provide more aid

As a Ukraine aid package continues to stall in the US Congress, America and its allies are assessing what they describe as the potentially debilitating impact on Ukraine’s defense and longer-term prospects of losing the war, multiple US and European officials told CNN.

“There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us,” a senior US military official said.

The most immediate concern is the impact on Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive in the east and south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to make significant forward progress even when US support was still coming. “If looking at taking and holding further territory,” said one European diplomat, “it is hard to see how that could succeed without continued US support.”

More broadly, Western officials fear the loss or further delay of US support will impact aid from its allies. On Friday, Ukraine suffered another blow when Hungary blocked further European Union aid, though talks on the issue are expected to resume in January. The news underlined the scale of the challenge facing Kyiv and many fear that if the US fails to continue providing support, European nations will follow.

Now, Western intelligence agencies are currently calculating how long Ukraine could hold out without US and NATO help. One senior US military official estimated months, with a worst-case scenario of a significant setback or even defeat by the summer. A Russian victory would not just be dire news for Ukraine, it would be disaster for wider European security and a major blow to the US.

Ukrainian forces are already rationing ammunition, US and Ukrainian officials told CNN, as Russian forces fire back at a ratio of five to seven times greater than Ukrainian forces are able to. A senior Ukrainian military official told CNN that Ukrainian commanders believe the impact on their firepower has led to additional Ukrainian casualties.

Without additional US aid, Western officials assess that Ukraine would first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles and later artillery ammunition and short-range missiles such as shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

Each category of munition has been crucial to Ukraine’s defense. The long-range missiles, such as the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, have been central to Ukraine’s success in pushing back Russia’s Black Sea fleet hundreds of miles to open up a shipping corridor for grain and other supplies. Air defense missiles have proven particularly essential in recent weeks as Russia has expanded its attacks on civilian infrastructure this winter.

Source: CNN

Overview of aid to Ukraine

Ukraine aid vs. spending of other US agencies