Weekly Update #99
January 22, 2024

General Figures

Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe 

5,953,500

Last updated December 31 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 

Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe

403,600

Last updated November 28 2023

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 

Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally

6,357,100

Last updated December 31 2024

Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities

Source: UNICEF

More countries join talks on Ukraine leader’s peace formula. But Russia is absent and war grinds on.

Leaders of talks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace formula on Sunday said a growing number of countries are working to help set the groundwork for Russia to join one day, an admittedly distant goal as the nearly two-year war grinds on and with neither side willing to cede ground.

The fourth such meeting of national security advisers was held in the Swiss town of Davos, where Zelenskyy is set to attend the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting starting Tuesday. He will endeavor to keep up international focus on Ukraine’s defense amid eroding support for Kyiv in the West and swelling distractions like conflict in the Middle East.

Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, posted photos of the meeting’s opening and hailed a “good sign” that the number of participants in a string of conferences on Zelenskyy’s peace formula was growing — nearly half from Europe, as well as 18 from Asia and 12 from Africa.

Zelenskyy has presented a 10-point peace formula that, among other things, seeks the expulsion of all Russian forces from Ukraine and accountability for war crimes — at a time when the two sides are fighting from largely static positions along a roughly 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line. Such ideas are rejected out of hand by Moscow.

Yermak said that if Ukraine’s territorial integrity — now violated by Russia including through illegal annexations — isn’t restored, “soon other aggressors elsewhere in the world will be able to seize parts of other countries and start staging fake elections there.”

At a final news conference, Yermak said the purpose of the meeting — the last in a series — was to discuss issues like an eventual Russian withdrawal, a path to justice, environmental security and ultimately how the war might be declared over.

The talks aimed to build on previous such closed-door efforts in Denmark, Saudi Arabia and Malta last summer and fall. Any peace deal naturally will require Russian participation — and Moscow isn’t represented in the discussions.

The last round, in Malta in October, involved envoys from 65 countries.

Russian forces have recently stepped up missile and drone attacks that have stretched Ukraine’s air defense resources, leaving the country vulnerable in the nearly 23-month war unless it can secure further weapons supplies.

Source: AP News

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Ukraine war: What Russia's escalating air attacks mean

On Tuesday night President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched 500 missiles and drones against Ukraine in just five days.

At least 32 people have died in Ukraine's capital in that time, 30 of them in one attack - on 29 December, when Russia launched one of the largest ever aerial attacks of this war.

And it's not just the capital. Nearly 60 people have been killed nationwide, with Kharkiv in the northeast, Zaporizhzhia in the south, Odesa on the southern coast and even Lviv in the far west all suffering strikes.

Since launching its invasion Russia has never stopped attacking Ukraine by the air, but this latest series of strikes marks a deadly escalation. What does this new phase in the war mean for Ukraine? And what's the plan behind Russia's renewed aerial assault?

Changing tactics

Ukraine has not seen attacks as heavy as this since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. And what's different is not just the size of the strikes - it's the tactics.

The attack on 2 January lasted for six hours in Kyiv. The Russians launched a wave of drones at the capital. Ukraine's air force said it was able to shoot down all 35 of them.

But this was followed up with missile attacks, using different kinds of weapons in a bid to overwhelm and break through the city's defences.

Missiles have struck the very heart of Kyiv in these last five days, for the first time in months.

That means using different kinds of missiles - hypersonic, cruise, and ballistic - but also firing these missiles along different routes. These weapons can change direction in the air over Ukraine, causing further headaches for air defence.

Russia is also varying its focus. On 29 December, it aimed its weapons at cities across the country - on 2 January, just at Kyiv and Kharkiv.

Analysis carried out by Ukrainian media suggests the attack on 29 December cost $1.273bn (£1.01bn) alone - while the attack on 2 January cost an extra $620 million (£491m), according to Forbes magazine.

Ukraine had feared ahead of the winter that Russia was stockpiling weapons for large-scale attacks. Analysis published in Le Monde quotes Ukrainian officials who said Russia still has in its stockpile around 1,000 ballistic or cruise missiles, and is able to make around 100 more per month - such as Kalibrs and Kh-101s.

With US aid bogged down in political infighting and the EU failing to produce even half of the one million artillery shells it promised by the end of 2023, Russia may well be launching these vast attacks at a time when Ukraine's supplies could be drying up.

Source: BBC

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The Financial Times (FT) reported on January 19 that US officials are advocating for Ukraine to take a more “conservative” operational approach focused on holding current territory and generating materiel and forces in 2024 for future counteroffensive operations in 2025. One US official reportedly argued that a strategy of “active defense” would allow Ukraine to build out operational requirements and prepare for a counteroffensive in 2025. US military doctrine defines an active defense as the ”employment of limited offensive action and counterattacks to deny a contested area or position to the enemy.”  Ukrainian officials have stated that Ukrainian forces are conducting active defensive operations in areas where Russian forces are engaged in localized offensive efforts. An active defense throughout the theater, however, would require routine and widespread Ukrainian counterattacks and therefore still demand that Ukrainian forces commit considerable offensive capabilities to the front. FT reported that US officials believe that Ukrainian forces still could opportunistically exploit weak spots in the Russian defense while conducting a theater-wide active defense.

A theater-wide defensive posture would cede the strategic initiative to Russia and permit Russia to launch major attacks at times of its choosing, forcing Ukraine to burn scarce resources it would supposedly be generating during a period of “active defense.” Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zahorodnyuk stated to FT that focusing on defense without any offensive component would be ”a mistake of historic proportions” for Ukraine as it would hand Russian President Vladimir Putin the initiative and allow Putin to double down on ongoing efforts to convince the West and the rest of the world that Ukraine cannot win the war.

Source: ISW

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Ukraine is accused by Russia of being behind a drone strike that sparked a huge inferno at an oil depot in western Russia on Friday, the latest in a series of escalating cross-border attacks. Russian officials and news reports said four oil reservoirs with a total capacity of 6,000 cubic metres (1.6m gallons) were set on fire at the oil refinery after the drone reached Klintsy, a city of 70,000 people located about 60km (40 miles) from the Ukrainian border. Air defences electronically jammed the drone but it dropped its explosive payload on the facility,

Landmines once again surround the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which is in Russian hands, the UN nuclear watchdog said on Friday. Europe’s largest nuclear facility fell to Russian forces shortly after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Kyiv and Moscow have repeatedly accused each other of planning an incident at the site. “Mines along the perimeter of the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant) ... are now back in place,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement.

Russia is increasing the intensity of offensive actions in Ukraine, UK says.

Russian forces have been steadily increasing the intensity of their offensive activity across the front in Ukraine over the past two weeks, the British Ministry of Defense said in its latest intelligence update.

"A key enabler for this is highly likely the freezing ground conditions, which allows cross-country movement of armored vehicles," the update said.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 19 that Russian attacks on the front line had increased by 27% compared to the previous day, according to the British ministry.

Additional data from the Ukrainian General Staff comparing the period of January 14-18 with the previous five-day period supports this increase in Russian assaults, the update said.

Sources: The Guardian

The Guardian

DW

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Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus. Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin stated on January 19 that the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus is part of Belarus’ strategic deterrence.[125] Khrenin stressed that Belarus’ updated military doctrine, which the Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 16, aims to prevent military and political situations from escalating and considers Russian tactical nuclear weapons as deterrence mechanisms.

Source: ISW

Young Ukrainian refugees await registration at a border (Courtesy of ICMC)

Since the war began, thousands of displaced people – mostly women, children, and some elderly if they were physically able to flee – have been sheltering in the various monasteries, seminaries, and convents in the diocese of Ivano-Frankivsk. (courtesy of ICMC)