Weekly Update #105
March 4, 2024
March 4, 2024
REFUGEE SITUATION
(as of 15 February 2024)
General Figures
Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe
6,004,100
Last updated February 15 2024
Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay
Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe
475,600
Last updated January 27 2024
Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay
Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally
6,479,700
Last updated February 15 2024
Estimated number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ukraine
3,674,002
Last updated November 6 2023
Source: IOM
Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities
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Refugee Movements
The UNHCR released the most recent summary findings of the latest round of data collection including, for the first time, findings related to the experiences and current situation of refugee returnees.
The Report, Lives on Hold: Intentions and Perspectives of Refugees, Refugee Returnees, and IDPs from Ukraine, is based on interviews undertaken between January and February 2024 with close to 4,000 households across Europe, 4,800 internally displaced people households in Ukraine and close to 1,100 refugee returnee households in Ukraine
Key findings
1. While the majority of refugees and internally displaced people are still Planning or hoping to return to Ukraine in the future, a growing uncertainty is observed, as displacement continues.
2. Respondents who were previously planning to return but did not, report they changed their mind due to the security situation in areas of return, together with concerns about access to livelihoods and housing. Similar challenges are raised by those that are now less inclined to return compared to those in the previous round.
3. Although the end of the full-scale war and of the occupation is a necessary condition to enable the return of most refugees and internally displaced people, access to economic opportunities and to property or alternative housing in areas of return are key enablers and barriers to sustainable return intentions to return if the full-scale war ends within the next 12 months.
4. Only a small proportion of refugees and internally displaced people are planning to return in the next twelve months, mainly motivated by their desire to go back to their cultural environment, reunite with relatives and take care of their property. However, a significant number could be compelled to return if they face challenges in host countries or areas of displacement, in particular regarding legal status or effective work opportunities.
5. The majority of refugee returnees surveyed came back in 2022, mainly motivated by the desire to reunite with family members and go back to their cultural environment. More than a quarter of refugee returnee households surveyed returned to a place different from their former homes.
6. Refugee returnees report that economic opportunities in areas of return are worse than what they expected before returning, and while half of respondents are currently working, only around a quarter reported being able to cover all or most of their basic needs. Furthermore, only around a third report feeling safe in their current locations.
Source: UNHCR
THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE
“We Left Everything Behind.” Addressing Displacement and Rebuilding Livelihoods in Ukraine
Supporting the Livelihoods of Displaced People in Mariupol
Mariupol, Ukraine, used to be a dynamic, lively city, with a population of over 400,000 people. When the war broke out, everything changed. The city was besieged by Russian forces for almost three months, and 25,000 people were killed. Around 90% of its residential buildings were damaged or destroyed.
About 300,000 people were forced to flee, and now face an uncertain future in cities like Dnipro and Zaporijia. These families have lost nearly everything. They have no jobs, no belongings, and oftentimes, no family to support them.
Action Against Hunger helps displaced people from Mariupol by partnering with a civil society organization called “I Am Mariupol.” It was set up at the initiative of the town’s municipal council and helps empower prior residents. Action Against Hunger staff members provide hygiene kits and financial assistance to thousands of people in need.
Violetta Dmitriyevna, originally from Mariupol, is a lawyer at the “I Am Mariupol” center. The center provides recruitment, legal, and psychological services. With support from Action Against Hunger and other partners, it also distributes humanitarian assistance, hygiene kits, and educational courses for children.
“Humanitarian aid for internally displaced people remains relevant, even after a year and a half of war,” she says. “The situation of many people remains unchanged, both materially and psychologically. Only Mariupol residents work in the association, as they are the best placed to understand the terrible events that people have been through.”
Nadezhda Gubanova has been displaced twice. In 2018, she fled the city of Yenakievo for Mariupol. Then, when the conflict escalated, she gathered her family, including a nine- and six-year-old, and headed to Zaporijia.
“The fighting was approaching our house when we left, and we had no more food,” she says. “The children were hungry. On March 17, we boiled the last packet of pasta. Then, miraculously, on the morning of March 18, we managed to catch a bus. We left everything behind. We just took a backpack with documents and a small bag of baby stuff.”
The “I Am Mariupol” center opened in Zaporijia in May 2022. Since then, Nadezhda has received support from humanitarian organizations like Action Against Hunger. “My husband is the only one working for the four of us,” she says. “I don’t work because I have nowhere to leave the children. The aerial alarms are constant, the schools and kindergartens are closed. We stay at home and that’s it.”
Ensuring Access to Water & Sanitation Services in Kharkiv
Critical water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure—which includes things like water storage, pipes, and sewer systems – has been damaged throughout the war. Around 9.6 million people are in urgent need of WASH assistance.
Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, has been regularly hit by Russian attacks since the war began, and the walls and buildings are marred by artillery fire. The water supply infrastructure has been severely damaged. Action Against Hunger works with Ukraine’s water management agency, Vodokanals, to provide 250,000 people in Kharkiv and Dnipro with improved access to clean water.
“We didn’t stop working a single day to provide our services to the people of Kharkiv,” says Hrushchak Taras, Commercial Director of Vodokanals in Kharkiv. “During the hostilities, our employees worked to repair the extensive damage. Some even worked close to the front line and were injured.”
Hrushchak helps people prepare for the winter by replacing the most damaged sections of infrastructure. He must ensure that Vodokanals can still operate, even during possible power cuts and attacks on energy infrastructure. “Without the help of our partners, including Action Against Hunger, we really don’t know how we could have continued to deliver our services.”
Nearly 30,000 people in the Dnipro region have already received hygiene kits from Action Against Hunger. “Hygiene kits are very important in humanitarian aid, as they contribute to a community’s physical and mental health,” says Daria Aleksandrova, an Action Against Hunger WASH Officer. “By offering hygiene kits, we help them to save money to continue living.”
Daria typically works with people over sixty, families with young children, or people with disabilities. “We distribute several types of kits adapted to individual needs,” she says, adding that some are designed for people in transit and some are for families who have already settled. “We also give kits designed for young children, with diapers and items for personal hygiene.”
Source: Action Against Hunger
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Programme Response of UNICEF (January 2024)
UNICEF works with the Government of Ukraine, United Nations agencies, civil society and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other humanitarian partners. Close cooperation is ensured with key stakeholders (Ministries of Foreign Affairs; Social Policy; Education and Science; Youth and Sports; Ministry for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development; and Health), mayors in several cities and the Ombudsperson’s Office.
UNICEF has established partnerships in concerned municipalities and will continue to expand. UNICEF engages with 106 government, civil society and service provider partners to respond to the critical needs of children and families across Ukraine.
Health and Nutrition: In January, UNICEF supported 164,017 individuals to access health care through the delivery of supplies and equipment to health care facilities, deployment of mobile medical teams (MMTs) and roll out Universal Progressive Home Visiting. MMTs of doctors, nurses and psychologists reached 29 girls, 33 boys and 100 women in conflict-affected Velyka Babka in Kharkivska. The Universal Progressive Home Visiting model continued in 11 locations.1 Home visiting nurses and doctors provided consultations for 264 girls, 281 boys, 610 women and 418 men on topics such as immunization, breastfeeding, infant and young child feeding and positive parenting.
UNICEF delivered 350,000 doses of the diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus (DPT) vaccine and 340,000 doses of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) to the Ministry of Health (MOH) in January. 132 children and parents benefitting from consultations on vaccination through the MOH-UNICEF National Hotline on Vaccination and Infant Feeding ‘Jointly to Health’. Vaccination rates for 2023 were released in January: 83.4 per cent of children under 1 year received three doses of DPT vaccine and 84.9 per cent received three doses of polio vaccine.
Child Protection: In January, UNICEF partners reached 2,777 children (1,407 girls; 110 children with disabilities) with case management. This includes 1,686 children (826 girls) who returned from institutions, children under guardianship, and children at-risk of institutionalization. Further, 1,937 families with such children were identified and monitored, and 1,733 caregivers who have children returned from institutions or have children under care who are at risk of institutionalization were provided with humanitarian support by social workers employed within the project.
Education (Learning and Skills Development): UNICEF and partners facilitated access to small-group, in-person Early Childhood Education (ECE) for 2,130 children in January, including 1,086 girls. This initiative is critical in regions where kindergartens are currently closed. Complementing this effort, 207 teachers (all women) were trained to deliver mixed modality ECE, encompassing facility- and home-based approaches. The NUMO Platform website, app and chatbot, supported 22,764 parents, caregivers, young children and educators, providing ECD content and advice. Finally, 54 kindergartens in Poltava municipality received supplies to conduct interactive group classes and 6,643 children received school bags.
Mental Health and Psychosocial Support: In January, UNICEF provided MHPSS to 52,228 girls, boys and caregivers across the country, including 26,142 girls and 5,751 boys of which 1,159 were children with disabilities. Through the PORUCH platform, 1,337 children, 1,913 parents and frontline professionals participated in targeted online and offline group and individual psychological sessions. UNICEF also launched a new partnership to provide peer-to-peer and psychosocial support among adolescents, via the ‘I Support My Friend’ manual for adolescents, particularly those attending vocational school. This course also ensures the identification and referral of adolescents in distress for specialized support or treatment
Water and Sanitation and Hygiene: Recognizing the repeated attacks on WASH infrastructure and the critical underfunding exacerbating the situation, UNICEF is actively supporting 46 water utilities and WASH service providers across Ukraine, extending its focus beyond infrastructure rehabilitation to encompass technical assistance for institutional strengthening. The combined value of ongoing support to these utilities is US$20 million.
Source: UNICEF
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Humanitarian Logistics: A Reflective Journey through 2-Year Logistics Cluster Activation in Ukraine
For two years of full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Logistics Cluster, led by the World Food Programme (WFP), has been the backbone of logistics support for the humanitarian community.
Since its activation on 3 March 2022, the Logistics Cluster has paved the way for assistance where needed most through coordination and information management, training for logisticians, and access to essential logistics services, including storage and transport.
Brief History
While initial cluster coordination and information management capacity was established across Hungary, Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia, the central operational hub was established in Poland, where common services were coordinated and facilitated.
In May 2022, the four hubs primarily focusing on coordination and information management were phased out, while the Polish operational hub was phased out on 31 August 2022.
The adaptation of the operational set-up aimed at strengthening the cluster’s focus on the response inside Ukraine, specifically towards hard-to-reach areas across eastern and southern regions.
As of March 2024, the Logistics Cluster has three main hubs in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa and four warehouses in Dnipro, Kherson, Kyiv, and Odesa with a total storage capacity of 9,800 m2.
Current situation
Every day, the Logistics Cluster team works closely with humanitarian organizations to track the movement of their humanitarian aid cargo. The information gathered allows the team to adjust routes, schedules, and resources in real-time, adapting to dynamic circumstances. By ensuring that humanitarian supplies are tracked, monitored, and delivered efficiently, the cluster plays a vital role in supporting humanitarian actors to reach people in need. It’s even more crucial for local aid organizations that do not always have the necessary capacity and network to reach frontline communities.
From 2022 to 2024, the unwavering commitment of the Ukraine Logistics Cluster community has resulted in:
109 coordination meetings were conducted to address logistics bottlenecks and challenges faced by partners. 200 information management products were published to bridge the informational gaps in ever-changing humanitarian logistics situations. 61,574 m3 of humanitarian cargo was received in common storages across Poland and Ukraine, and 14,362 mt of aid was transported to 275 locations on behalf of 50 organisations. 143 Inter-Agency Convoys supported, delivering nearly 5,000 mt of relief items to 83 hard-to-reach locations.
As we enter 2024, the Ukraine Logistics Cluster continues its commitment to logistics coordination and information management, facilitating access to common logistics services in hard-to-reach areas, and providing logistics training courses. Two Logistics Cluster Induction Training sessions have already been delivered on 15-16 and 19-20 February and two more are to be delivered in Odesa in March 2024 and in Dnipro in April 2024. To see how the training went in Kyiv, please watch this video.
As we reflect on the two-year journey of the Logistics Cluster in Ukraine, there's a simple yet heartfelt truth: collective efforts are making a meaningful impact. The path ahead may still have challenges, but with еру daily efforts of all of us, we deliver critical assistance to those in need.
Sources: Logistics Cluster, WFP
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Risk communication, community engagement and infodemic management in humanitarian emergencies: lessons from the Ukraine war
This WHO report provides insights on the complexities of humanitarian emergencies, as derived from the two-year crisis in Ukraine. In particular, it describes the criticality of timely and relevant communication in ensuring effective responses.
As we mark a grim 2-year anniversary since the onset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, it becomes increasingly evident that effective risk communication, community engagement and infodemic management (RCCE-IM) are indispensable in navigating humanitarian emergencies. Since the escalation of conflict in February 2022, the critical role of RCCE-IM in shaping responses has become ever more apparent, underscoring the imperative of prioritizing these measures in humanitarian efforts.
Helping displaced people find their way into hosting health systems
When the long-running conflict in Ukraine escalated into full-scale war in February 2022, millions of people nationwide were confronted with situations that they had never experienced. Many people found themselves at a new location within or outside of Ukraine, often in distress due to family separation or the experience of violence. Their need for clear information from trusted sources, guidance on maintaining their health, and feeling engaged in the co-design of response activities increased. Tailored RCCE-IM interventions can improve the ability of displaced people to navigate and access hosting health systems for treatment and prevention, but also give people a sense of orientation and belonging, thus increasing their well-being.
Now, 2 years into the war, refugees have become more integrated in host communities with better understanding of the health services available to them. Thanks to RCCE-IM interventions people are more equipped with knowledge and skills to manage their health and seek professional care for themselves or their children.
Establishing an RCCE-IM blueprint for future humanitarian emergencies
“Unfortunately, the reality is that health emergencies have become more frequent in the European Region over the last few years. This has led to the mainstreaming of RCCE-IM, which has become a key pillar in all emergency responses. In the context of the Ukraine war, it has been central to link affected people to health services and care,” noted Cristiana Salvi, Regional Adviser on RCCE-IM at WHO/Europe.
The multifaceted nature of the Ukraine war has meant that health actors have had to act quickly to prepare and distribute lifesaving RCCE-IM interventions specific to the humanitarian emergency. This has ranged from supporting cancer patients needing lifesaving care in foreign countries, to ensuring those whose homes were flooded by the Kakhovka dam destruction in Ukraine understood how to make their food and water safer for consumption. Working in this way has engendered a wealth of learning which can also be adapted and applied to addressing the health needs of affected communities in other humanitarian emergencies.
Tailoring RCCE-IM interventions to communities impacted by war
Vita Kolomiets, who was the Head of Communications for the Ukrainian Ministry of Health at the time of writing this story, explained the importance of providing health information and advice at a time of crisis: “It’s important to ensure that people have the information they need to make responsible choices.”
Most Ukrainians have a high level of digital literacy, and most are familiar with accessing information online and using health apps. But damage to infrastructure in Ukraine means that online information sources are not always available, so it is also essential to provide information in different formats.
“When Bucha was under the military control of Russian Federation, people were forced to hide in basements for weeks, without access to running water,” Kolomiets said. “Thus, they needed information about how to treat rainwater so that it was safe to drink. At the Ministry of Health, we provided advice on that through online channels, and we learned that people were trying to memorize it in case they lost power, or the internet was not working. This taught us that information needs to be very clear, short and visual to be memorized, and that printed information is also important.”
Supporting refugees to navigate host health systems
Two years after the conflict began, priorities have changed. More parents are seeking to have their children vaccinated. Prejudices about seeking help for mental health disorders have started to be addressed as more people recognize the need for support and seek help. Risk communication interventions that embed empathy are instrumental to achieving that.
Source: WHO
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After two years of war, continuing violence inflicted on civilians in Ukraine is of grave concern, says international human rights office ODIHR
As the war in Ukraine following Russia’s military attack enters its third year, the suffering of Ukrainian civilians is worsening as indiscriminate military strikes continue together with cases of torture, arbitrary detention, and other serious human rights violations, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) said in a statement today.
ODIHR has been monitoring violations of international law in Ukraine and their impact on civilians and prisoners of war since 24 February 2022. Interviews with more than 330 survivors and witnesses of violations, both in Ukraine and outside the country, bear testimony to the continued disregard shown by the Russian Federation for the basic principles set out in international humanitarian and human rights law. The ultimate aim of this work is to help ensure accountability for violations of international law
The four monitoring reports published to date provide details of violations on the ground, including deliberate attacks against civilians, arbitrary detention, torture, wilful killing and enforced disappearances. Many survivors told ODIHR that their arbitrary arrest and fear of subsequent persecution were the main reasons for leaving their hometowns. They also talked about their anxiety for family and friends left behind, following reports of increased pressure to acquire Russian citizenship and forced mobilization. At the same time, credible reports of forcible transfers and deportations of Ukrainian children continue, both within occupied areas of Ukraine and from there to the Russian Federation and Belarus.
ODIHR’s support to Ukraine has continued this year in many areas, from contributing to better lawmaking, through combating human trafficking, to increasing the involvement of the Ukrainian diaspora in post-conflict reconstruction and development. Helping to strengthen the rule of law has been a key element of the Office’s support, for example by assisting some two hundred judges in their efforts to adjudicate war crimes cases in line with national and international law. Over the last year, ODIHR has also collected hate crime data that demonstrates the impact of the war beyond Ukraine, with cases of people being targeted for speaking Russian or Ukrainian and attacks on property.
International humanitarian law, or the law of war, prohibits all parties to the conflict from carrying out indiscriminate attacks or those deliberately targeting civilians, and protects the civilian population at all times from violence and inhumane treatment. The many violations that have characterised the war in Ukraine run contrary to the OSCE’s founding principle of respect for human rights as a precondition for the security of the entire region.
Source: OSCE
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Theirworld announces ambitious education projects – including a Museum of Mathematics – to support Ukrainian children’s education
Theirworld, a children’s charity committed to ending the global education crisis and unlocking the potential of the next generation, announced a raft of innovative projects to support Ukrainian children’s education as part of a drive to help rebuild the country following the Russian invasion.
The projects include support for a £5m state-of-the-art Museum of Mathematics in Kyiv, which will deliver workshops, tutoring and teacher training to help pupils who have experienced four years of interruptions in their education due to the pandemic and the ongoing war.
The new museum – only the fourth of its kind globally – will house more than 120 exhibits across six thematic zones. It will also have an “innovation lab” to enhance the skills of mathematics teachers across the country, reaching 300,000 pupils ever year.
Scheduled to open later this year, the museum will embark on a nationwide tour to ensure that children in rural and remote areas of the country benefit from the multi-million-pound investment.
Theirworld will also collaborate with the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine on a national childhood education and development initiative to support children in the important first eight years of a child's life, during which time 90% of the brain develops.
Quality early years support is crucial to a child's development, but since the Russian invasion began, more than 100 early childhood schools have been destroyed and more than 1,000 damaged. Many are being used as shelters for internally displaced people.
Theirworld's package of support for Ukrainian children's education builds on the charity's commitment to ensure that pupils and teachers displaced by the war have access to digital devices to help them learn and teach remotely.
Since the start of the conflict, the charity has helped to distribute more than 70,000 laptops to young students and teachers in Ukraine and neighbouring host countries, as part of a partnership with HP, Microsoft, and First Lady Olena Zelenska's Foundation. The initiative has reached an estimated 1.5 million learners either via their teachers or directly.
The charity is now an implement partner for a new device coalition launched last month by the Ukrainian government with the goal of delivering an additional 125,000 devices by the middle of the year.
Sarah Brown, Chair of Theirworld, said she hoped the charity's support would give hope to the "children of Ukraine whose lives have been upended by the war."
"War doesn’t just wreck lives, it wrecks education and children’s futures." Sarah Brown, Chair of Theirworld
In September 2023, Sarah met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv when he requested Theirworld’s support to focus on accelerated learning programmes for science and mathematics, and comprehensive support for early childhood education.
“As Ukraine marks the second anniversary of this brutal conflict, we want to let Ukraine’s children know that they are not forgotten and that they can dream of a brighter future. So many young lives have been lost in this war. As we mourn their lives, we must rebuild the talent in Ukraine so that their sacrifices are not in vain.”
Source: Theirworld
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SOS Ukraine 2022-2024: Aid, priorities, and plans
People in Need organization was established in 1992 by a group of Czech war correspondents who were no longer satisfied with merely relaying information about ongoing conflicts and began sending out aid. It gradually became established as a professional humanitarian organization striving to provide aid in troubled regions and support adherence to human rights around the world.
Throughout the 30 years of its existence, People in Need has become one of the biggest non-profit organizations in Central Europe. In addition to humanitarian aid and human rights, it now also targets education and helps people living in social exclusion.
We continue to help directly in areas where we have already supported over 1.8 million people. We provide material aid, including hygiene and shelter kits. We also help repair war-torn homes and provide psychological and other much-needed support. In the Czech Republic, we continue to assist the most
vulnerable refugee groups and maintain a phone helpline in their native languages.
"Ukraine needs unequivocal support, not hesitation or fatigue. Ukraine is fighting for its freedom, territory, democracy, and European values on which we base our society. They are, of course, also dealing with a major humanitarian crisis. With great respect, I would like to thank all those who support us and our activities to help Ukraine and the hundreds of Ukrainian colleagues working for People in Need and civil society in Ukraine who are tirelessly supporting their fellow citizens throughout the Russian invasion of their country," says Šimon Pánek, CEO, People in Need.
Source: People in Need
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IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been without back-up power for the past ten days, leaving the facility entirely dependent on its only remaining 750 kilovolt (kV) line for the external electricity. It needs to cool its six reactors and for other essential nuclear safety and security functions, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today (1 March).
The IAEA experts stationed at the site reported that the ZNPP expects the 330 kV back-up line to be reconnected soon – perhaps even later today – but the plant’s off-site power situation remains a source of deep concern, Director General Grossi said.
Further underlining the persistent dangers facing the plant, the IAEA team has continued to report about the sound of explosions and other indications of military activity in the area, which is on the frontline of the conflict.
During the walkdowns conducted by the IAEA experts over the past week, they observed that anti-personnel mines were once again visible within the perimeter fences that are inaccessible to personnel, after they had appeared to be gone in early February.
Elsewhere in Ukraine, the IAEA experts present at the Khmelnytskyy, Rivne and South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) as well as at the Chornobyl site have reported that nuclear safety and security is being maintained despite the challenging war-time circumstances, including the frequent sound of air raid alarms at some of the facilities.
Source: IAEA
STATUS OF THE CONFLICT
Scenarios - Update on scenarios and outlook into 2024, 29 February 2024
ACAPS, a non-profit, non-governmental organization, provides independent humanitarian analysis. In this report, it updates the probability of various scenarios of the Ukraine crisis draw in 2023. These scenarios and updates do not aim to predict the future but inform on a range of plausible and complementary futures to support humanitarian planning and decision-making.
This report was prepared with input from context and humanitarian experts, who participated in an either in-person or online workshop in January 2024. The sessions involved discussions of how the original scenarios have developed and what to watch for in 2024. The four scenarios’ probability and impact levels have been reviewed and the time frame extended to the end of 2024, instead of the original mid-2024.
Key Developments since July 2023
Conflict dynamics
In the second half of 2023, the areas of control and front lines remained broadly the same as in midyear. Donetsk oblast remained a major conflict hotspot, with continued shelling resulting in significant damage and destruction, particularly in Avdiivka and Marinka cities.
Russian forces took control of Avdiivka city in February 2024. Aerial attacks on Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia cities increased significantly in December 2023 and January 2024.
Military capacity and support
Iranian and North Korean military support for Russia continued throughout 2023, and Russia has significantly increased its military spending in 2024.Russia’s capacity to launch aerial attacks remains strong.
Ukraine has allocated 50% of the 2024 state budget to defence. Despite significant military support pledges in late 2023, Ukraine continues to rely heavily on a few core donors, and the speed at which military support arrives limits its capacity.
As the EU’s production capacity has yet to reach its pledged levels, Ukraine’s need for one million shells by March 2024 will only be met by half.
Economy
In 2023, Ukraine’s economy and household purchasing power remained resilient, and inflation decreased. The growth of real GDP is estimated at 2% for 2023, and unemployment decreased in the last quarter of the year.
The increased share of the state budget allocated to defence also reduces funding for social services, further affecting the people most in need. As of 1 March 2024, the number of IDPs receiving cash assistance from the government will be limited to 170,000 people, down from 2.6 million.
Despite the suspension of the Grain Deal in July 2023, Ukraine resumed its sea exports. In December, Ukraine exported 6.3 million metric tonnes of agricultural goods, similar to preinvasion export levels in 2021.
The Russian economy has withstood and largely evaded international sanctions.
International support
International support for Ukraine remains strong, with donors announcing multi-year funding in the first half of 2023 and the opening of EU accession negotiations. Internal divisions across major donors, however, delayed some of the financial support in late 2023.
The World Bank’s recovery and reconstruction costs estimate increased from USD 411 billion in March 2023 to USD 486 billion in December 2023 (WB 15/02/2024). Ukraine’s Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan requires USD 3.1 billion in 2024, as compared to USD 3.9 billion in 2023.
Humanitarian needs
14.6 million people in Ukraine are expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2024, a decrease from 17.6 million in 2023. This overall decrease does not mean that needs are less severe; people living in frontline areas are reaching ‘extreme’ and ‘catastrophic’ levels of need.
Humanitarian access
As the front lines have not changed, humanitarian access remains similar to mid-2023 but varies across the country. No new areas have become accessible. In November and December 2023, access became more constrained in territories under Ukrainian control as a result of increased challenges in obtaining international visas for staff, severe winter weather, and increased attacks on major cities.
Displacement
As at December 2023, there were approximately 3.5 million IDPs, down from approximately 3.7 million in June 2023
As at December 2023, there were approximately 6.4 million refugees abroad, up from just over six million refugees in June 2023
As at December 2023, 4.4 million people had moved back to their places of origin, a quarter of whom moved back from abroad.
Public Support
In Ukraine, public support for continued fighting remains widespread but has somewhat decreased from 2022. Support for negotiations to end the conflict has increased slightly, with those living closest to the front lines in the south and east being more in favour
While almost all Ukrainians continued to trust the army, the level of trust in the and Government decreased in 2023.
In Russia, public support for continued fighting remains high, but it is the Russian leadership’s commitment to continuing the conflict in the coming years that is the main indicator.
Four Scenarios
Four scenarios were identified in 2023 -- i) Escalating; ii) Turbulent; iii) Protracted; iv) Ceasefire.
Basic features of each scenario are briefly described and the prospects for each scenario are presented graphically. Details are available in the full Report (see link).
Scenario 1: Escalating
Ukrainian military successes and internal tensions within Russia lead to a more aggressive Russian military strategy. Conflict escalates across Ukraine, and Russia indiscriminately targets civilian infrastructure.
This scenario remains low in probability, and impact remains at a major level. Several factors could lead to conflict escalation, including significant changes on the front lines and in large towns, with either Russian or Ukrainian armed forces advancing. For the conflict to escalate, one or both parties will need sufficient strength to make territorial advances.
Scenario 2: Turbulent
Conflict intensifies locally, affecting new regions. Front lines shift, particularly in the east and south, while new areas in the north come under attack. The increased use of private military companies (PMCs) prolongs the pressure on Ukraine and ramps up uncertainty around conflict developments.
The probability of this scenario has decreased from medium to negligible, while the impact remains significant. The threat of Russian PMCs becoming more autonomous and the conflict more turbulent has receded after the failed Wagner rebellion
Scenario 3: Protracted
Conflict in Ukraine remains at a similar level as in early 2023, with occasional localized escalations and minimal territorial gains by both sides. Aerial attacks continue to cause damage, while front lines remain heavily shelled, impeding access to essential services.
This scenario remains at a medium probability in 2024, and its impact level remains significant, but the economy is no longer envisioned to decline as fast or as much as previously described.
Scenario 4: Ceasefire
Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement amid strong external and internal pressures, leading to a decline in conflict levels. Access to occupied territories remains constrained, but some inhabitants and a few humanitarian organisations are allowed limited entry.
The probability of this scenario remains low with a significant impact. Within Ukraine, close to the front lines, support for the conflict has slightly decreased. Calls to end the conflict both within Ukraine and abroad may grow as life becomes more difficult and as the conflict becomes more protracted.
Source: ACAPS
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MSF condemns shelling of two hospitals by Russian military
Two hospitals near the front lines of the war in Ukraine have been shelled by the Russian military in the last 24 hours.
At around midnight local time, a hospital in Selydove was hit, killing three people and wounding six. Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) ambulance crews referred 10 patients to safer locations, three of whom require intensive care. More than 20 other patients were referred by Ministry of Health ambulances.
Yesterday, strikes on a hospital in Kherson city forced an MSF surgical team there to seek shelter and damaged the outpatient clinic. An MSF team is regularly based at the hospital, supporting the intensive care unit and surgical services.
"These hospitals are near the front line, where access to medical care is critical," said Christopher Stokes, MSF's head of programs in Ukraine. "We unequivocally condemn the continued strikes on hospitals. Patients, medical staff and health facilities must be protected."
Source: MSF
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Russia can sustain war effort ‘for another two or three years,’ say analysts
Russia can sustain its war effort in Ukraine “for another two or three years” but will have to sacrifice “quality for quantity” as it replaces destroyed or damaged weapons with older systems held in storage, according to a report published this week.
The report by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated Russia has lost more tanks on the battlefields in Ukraine than it had when it launched its full-scale invasion nearly two years ago, but these losses were not likely to “cause an end to the fighting anytime soon.”
The IISS estimated that Russia can “sustain its assault on Ukraine for another two or three years, and maybe even longer.”
The report comes as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its second anniversary, with Moscow’s forces conducting a flurry of offensives along the nearly 1,000-kilometer frontlines in an attempt to break what Ukraine’s former top general described last year as a “stalemate.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine is shifting to a more defensive footing after its much-vaunted counteroffensive last summer failed to reap the desired gains, and as it struggles with its own manpower constraints and the supply of ammunition from the West begins to run dry.
The United States Senate on Tuesday passed a $95.3 billion foreign aid bill, including $60 billion in support for Ukraine, setting up a showdown with the House as Speaker Mike Johnson said he did not plan to bring the bill to the floor.
In its separate annual Military Balance report, the IISS said global defense spending increased by 9% to a record $2.2 trillion in 2023, the IISS said, as the world adjusts to what it called an “era of instability.” It said Russia’s invasion had spurred European countries to boost defense spending and strengthened NATO, but said much of the additional funding was “scrambling to rectify shortcomings from years of underinvestment.”
It noted that the European Union is on track to miss “by a wide margin” its target of delivering Ukraine 1 million 155-millimeter shells by March.
The report tracked the active fleets of both Russia and Ukraine’s main battle tanks (MBTs), armored personnel carriers (APCs), infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and other equipment. It cross-referenced indicated losses from battlefield images with other information sources, including data leaked from the Pentagon and open-source trackers, but said estimating the losses is an “imprecise science.”
It said Ukraine’s number of active MBTs “remains near pre-war levels,” while its number of APCs and IFVs “increased thanks to Western support.” Despite this, it warned Ukraine’s attempts to field these additional vehicles “outpaced equipment supply,” meaning some units did not have enough equipment to be close to full strength.
Russia, meanwhile, has lost more than 3,000 armored fighting vehicles in the past year alone, the report said, but this was offset by its reactivating around 1,200 MBTs and nearly 2,500 IFVs and APCs from storage. While this has meant trading “quality for quantity,” Russia has also been able to manufacture new vehicles. The authors concluded Russia could sustain its current rate of attrition for up to three years and maybe longer.
The report also detailed how, despite international sanctions, Russia’s economy had proved resilient and it had ramped up defense spending for 2024.
The authors stressed, however, that this outcome could be averted “if Ukraine’s partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support” to the Ukrainian armed forces in order to blunt Russia’s attacks in 2024.
“If Russia lacks the prospect of gains in 2025, given its inability to improve force quality for offensive operations, then it follows that it will struggle to force Kyiv to capitulate by 2026,” the report said.
Source: CNN
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Continuing deadly Russian strikes
The death toll rose to 10 on Sunday from a Russian drone strike that destroyed an apartment block in Ukraine’s southern port city of Odesa the previous day when a local official reported the body of a third child was pulled from the rubble, along with that of the child’s mother.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Western allies to boost Ukraine’s air defenses in the wake of the deadly attack.
Elsewhere in Ukraine, regional authorities reported that a 58-year-old man died under rubble after Russian forces overnight shelled his village in the southern Kherson province. Another civilian man, aged 38, was killed in a Russian artillery strike on the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region, local Gov. Ivan Fedorov said.
On Sunday afternoon, Donetsk regional Gov. Vadim Filashkin reported that a Russian airstrike on the eastern town of Kurakhove wounded 16 people and damaged 15 high-rise apartment blocks.
Ukraine repels Russian attacks but situation is difficult, top general says. Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian troops from the village of Orlivka, west of Avdiivka, but the situation on the eastern front remains difficult, Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Thursday.
Orlivka is less than 2 kilometres (1-1/2 miles) northwest of Lastochkyne, which was occupied this week by Russian forces.
Sources: AP News
UPDATES ON INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
Zelenskyy and Rutte sign security deal
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte signed a security guarantee deal.
The leaders of Ukraine and the Netherlands signed a security guarantee deal in the northeastern Ukrainian frontline city of Kharkiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a social media post on X, formerly Twitter, that the document includes €2 billion ($2.16 billion) in military aid from the Netherlands this year, as well as further defense assistance over the next ten years.
Now, Ukraine has security agreements with seven countries: the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, Italy and the Netherlands.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the Netherlands would also donate an additional €150 million to a Czech initiative to buy ammunition for Ukraine from countries around the world, Rutte announced during a visit to Ukraine.
The additional pledge takes the total sum the Netherlands will donate to the initiative to €250 million.
Source: DW
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Donors Provide Additional $760 Million for Ukraine to Sustain Critical Government Services
On February 28, the World Bank announced an additional $760 million in donor support to help Ukraine sustain its critical government services at national and regional levels. This funding is the sixth Additional Financing for the Public Expenditures for Administrative Capacity Endurance in Ukraine (PEACE) Project that continues to provide support for the wages for teachers, first responders and emergency services staff, as well as social assistance for internally displaced persons and the elderly.
The grant is supported by the PEACE Co-Financing Multi-Donor Trust Fund and the Ukraine Relief, Recovery, Reconstruction and Reform Trust Fund (URTF).
To date, World Bank-mobilized support has enabled the Government of Ukraine to provide essential services that are reaching more than 15 million Ukrainians, including 10 million pensioners, 500,000 education employees of educational institutions, 145,000 government employees, 56,000 first responders, and over three million social assistance recipients. With the support of the project, 100% of government has continued to exercise its core functions, 98% of pensions were paid on time, and over 90% of internally-displaces persons and social assistance recipients were paid on time.
The PEACE project in Ukraine is supported by contributions, including through the URTF, from Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Indonesia, Ireland, Finland, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Latvia, Lithuania, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. With today’s announcement the World Bank Group has mobilized nearly $42 billion in emergency financing in support of the people of Ukraine, including commitments and pledges from donors.
Source: World Bank
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Biden officials weigh giving Ukraine weapons without replacing U.S. stocks right away or waiting for Congress funds
After months of protecting stockpiles in the name of readiness, Pentagon officials are now warming to accepting some risk to US readiness to keep Ukraine in the fight.
Biden administration officials met Tuesday at the Pentagon to discuss ways to fill some of Ukraine’s urgent needs for artillery and ammunition quickly, including possibly drawing down U.S. stockpiles without replenishing them immediately or without waiting for more money from Congress, say two senior administration officials and a congressional official.
In the meeting, officials discussed various ways the Pentagon could resupply critical artillery and ammunition that Ukraine is expected to run out of soon, even while the White House’s request for new funding from Congress remains stalled, the officials said. No decisions have been made, according to the officials.
The discussions reflect growing alarm in the administration that Ukraine is poised to run out of key weaponry in the next few weeks, including 155 mm artillery rounds and air defense munitions.
Not all administration officials support the idea of sending a tranche of aid to Ukraine as a stopgap move, however. Some administration and congressional officials are concerned that such a move could imperil White House negotiations with Congress, particularly House Republican leaders, to get roughly $60 billion in new Ukraine aid through the chamber. Other officials are wary of the idea because it could put the U.S. military’s stockpiles below levels that are considered necessary for sufficient readiness.
The House is not expected to move on Ukraine aid until at least late March. But even if that happens, the process is not expected to be swift, given GOP opposition in the House to a Senate bill that passed earlier this month.
The Pentagon still has about $4 billion in congressionally approved Presidential Drawdown Authority funding, meaning it can provide $4 billion worth of weapons and equipment from U.S. stockpiles to Ukraine. But the Pentagon does not have enough approved funding available to replace the weapons and equipment after the U.S. sends it. Without funding, Biden administration officials must decide whether the risk of depleting of U.S. stockpiles without guarantees of when they’ll be replenished is a risk worth taking.
The idea of providing artillery and ammunition from U.S. stockpiles, even without a supplemental, has been on the table for a few weeks, according to a congressional official, but it is a last resort move when Congress has no more options. The official said that there is momentum now and that if the president approves this now, it could undermine progress that is being made in Congress and damage their argument that the supplemental is critical now.
Source: NBC News
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Two Years After Russia's Full-Scale Invasion, Support for Ukraine is More Important than Ever (USAID)
USAID Administrator Samantha Power released this statement on the 2nd anniversary of the Ukraine war.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, he expected Ukrainian forces to fall quickly and the world to fail to come to Ukraine’s aid.
But for 730 days, brave Ukrainians, on and off the battlefield, continue to deny Putin the win he expected. With the support of more than 50 countries, Ukraine has not only taken back half of the lands Russia seized in the early days of the full scale invasion; it has found a way to feed the world and begun rebuilding its economy. Military, economic, and humanitarian assistance are essential to help Ukraine continue this progress. That is why Congress must act now to pass the bipartisan national security supplemental.
Since the war broke out, USAID has marshaled critical aid to assist more than 17 million Ukrainians – touching the lives of nearly half the country’s population. This support has helped displaced Ukrainians and those living on the front lines survive with dignity, and it has assisted Ukraine build long-term strength and self-reliance.
USAID has worked with private-sector partners to get Ukraine’s farmers – who power the largest sector of Ukraine’s economy and make the country the breadbasket of the world – the seeds and fertilizer, grain storage facilities, and safe export routes they need to grow and sell their food. We’ve supported tens of thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses to withstand Russia’s bombardments. We’ve helped Ukraine make their energy infrastructure resilient to attacks, to keep the lights on and the heat running through the winter. We’ve helped the government develop its groundbreaking state-in-a-smartphone app Diia that provides over 100 government services and has turned Ukraine into a global leader in e-governance. And we’ve put in place unprecedented oversight and anti-corruption measures in partnership with the Ukrainian government, Deloitte, and the World Bank – measures essential to our support transparently and reliably reaching the Ukrainian people and to businesses having the confidence they need to invest as well.
This strategy is working. Today, Ukraine’s economy has not only stopped the free fall it experienced in the early days of the war, but grew at more than 5 percent last year. Businesses are beginning to recover and international investment is returning, with $2.5 billion in foreign direct investment entering the country in the first half of 2023 alone. And even as Putin’s attacks on the economy continue, Ukraine’s total exports are projected to grow by 15 percent this year, and 30 percent next year.
Yet if we pull back this support now, this progress could end. And because every dollar in economic and development assistance from the U.S. has drawn in $2 more from other donors, billions of dollars of support from multilateral organizations and allies could dry up as well. A Ukrainian economic collapse would allow Putin to win the war without firing another shot – and embolden him to be even more aggressive in his attacks on democracies around the world.
Putin’s strategy rests on our impatience. It’s vital that we continue to support Ukraine as it continues its path toward self-sufficiency – and stands on behalf of all of us for freedom, the rule of law, and independence.
Source: USAID
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Ukraine: A worthy investment
Below are excerpts from an Opinion piece offered by USAID Deputy Administrator for Policy and Programming, Isobel Coleman. Ms. Coleman guides USAID’s crisis response.
Two years ago, the world stood in horror as Vladimir Putin launched a brutal, unprovoked, invasion to conquer and occupy Ukraine. Today, though headlines largely focus on battlefield gains and losses, the bigger picture is this: enabled by the United States and other partners, Ukraine is incrementally
but assuredly building a future firmly rooted in the Euro-Atlantic world, and in the process demonstrating remarkable economic resilience.
While Ukraine’s economy still has a long way to go to recover from the shock caused by Russia’s ongoing full-scale invasion, succeeding in this endeavor will benefit, first and foremost, the Ukrainian people, who have exhibited extraordinary resolve and bravery in defending their homeland and democratic aspirations. But it will also undoubtedly redound to the benefit of the United States and our allies and partners, who have much to gain from a sovereign, independent, and secure Ukraine fully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic family. This is why it is essential for the U.S. House of Representatives to act, and to act quickly to pass the bipartisan national security supplemental which overwhelmingly passed through the Senate.
Some mischaracterize our aid to Ukraine as a giveaway. Nothing could be further from the truth. American support to Ukraine, combined with the significant contributions of our allies and partners, is instead an investment in a Europe free, whole and at peace, a long-standing U.S. policy, and one of the foundations of Euro-Atlantic security.
Despite Russia’s efforts to crush the Ukrainian economy, Ukraine’s export picture looks markedly different today. Last year, Ukraine exported an impressive 62 million metric tons of agricultural products, contributing over $17 billion to the Ukrainian economy. Its GDP is expected to grow 3.2 percent this year, and that’s on top of growth in 2023 that some estimate to be as high as 6 percent.
In July 2022, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), launched our Agricultural Resilience Initiative, known as AGRI-Ukraine, to support Ukrainian farmers at every stage of agricultural production. This work has included delivery of fertilizer and seeds to over 14,000 farmers, and provision of storage solutions that have preserved 1.9 million tons of grains and oilseeds like sunflower. Our investment in inputs and storage to date has totaled roughly $30 million, and enabled Ukrainian farmers to generate about $500 million in revenue — a hefty return.
Ukraine has already demonstrated the return on investment our assistance can provide. On this anniversary, we must demonstrate the fortitude to keep it up. That is why it is vital for Congress to provide military, economic, and development assistance for Ukraine.
Source: The Hill
HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE
Angelus - March 3, 2024 (Sunday)
And please let us not forget tormented Ukraine, where so many die every day. There is so much pain there.
I affectionately greet the young Ukrainians brought together by the Sant’Egidio Community on the theme “Conquer evil with good. Prayer, the poor, peace”. Dear young people, thank you for your commitment towards those who suffer most as a result of war. Thank you!
E per favore non dimentichiamo la martoriata Ucraina, dove ogni giorno muoiono tanti. C’è tanto dolore là.
Un saluto affettuoso rivolgo ai giovani ucraini che la Comunità di Sant’Egidio ha convocato sul tema “Vinci il male con il bene. Preghiera, poveri, pace”. Cari giovani, grazie per il vostro impegno a favore di chi più soffre per la guerra. Grazie!
Links to the full text in ENGLISH and ITALIANGeneral Audience - February 28, 2024
Dear brothers and sisters, let us not forget the peoples suffering because of war: Ukraine, Palestine, Israel and so many others. And let us pray for the victims of the recent attacks on places of worship in Burkina Faso; as well as for the people of Haiti, where crimes and kidnappings by armed gangs continue.
Cari fratelli e sorelle, non dimentichiamo i popoli che soffrono a causa della guerra: Ucraina, Palestina, Israele e tanti altri. E preghiamo per le vittime dei recenti attacchi contro luoghi di culto in Burkina Faso; come pure per la popolazione di Haiti, dove continuano i crimini e i sequestri delle bande armate.
Links to the full text in ENGLISH and ITALIANNEWS
Pope Francis: Let‘s all say ‘Enough!’ Stop the war in the Middle East
Pope Francis meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
Cardinal Parolin: EU military intervention in Ukraine a 'frightening' prospect
“Pastoral Care Amidst Grief and Sorrow”: Head of the UGCC on spiritual experience during the war
MEMBER PHOTOS
Since the start of the conflict, CRS partners Caritas Ukraine (of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church) and Caritas Spes (of the Roman Catholic Church) have supported nearly 4 million people. This includes providing food, hygiene kits; and medicine and medical support. Our partners have transformed churches into child-friendly spaces, and provided food at train stations and transportation to borders. (courtesy of CRS)