Weekly Update #110
 April 8, 2024

REFUGEE SITUATION

(as of 14 March 2024)

General Figures


Refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe 

5,982,900

Last updated March 14 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 


Refugees from Ukraine recorded beyond Europe

503,100

Last updated February 27 2024

Covers those granted refugee status, temporary asylum status, temporary protection, or statuses through similar national protection schemes, as well as those recorded in the country under other forms of stay 


Refugees from Ukraine recorded globally

6,486,000

Last updated March 14 2024


Estimated number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ukraine

3,689,000

Last updated December 27 2023

Source: IOM

Source: UNHCR collation of statistics made available by the authorities

THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE

Humanitarian Situation Snapshot

(January - March 2024)


From January to March, the humanitarian situation in Ukraine continued to deepen. Waves of attacks had a devastating impact on civilians, and vital services were disrupted for hundreds of thousands of people across the country at the height of winter. Since the start of the year through March 2024, people across Ukraine – Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and elsewhere – have suffered from massive waves of attacks, which have killed and injured civilians and damaged houses and critical civilian infrastructure. At the same time, hostilities in front-line and border communities, especially in Donetska, Kharkivska, Khersonska and Sumska oblasts, drove further displacement of civilians in search of safety and protection. The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) verified that 640 people had been killed or injured in January and 500 in February, noting an alarming increase in the number of children affected, with 40 child casualties reported in January alone. Strikes on critical infrastructure led to major disruptions of essential services such as electricity, water, and gas for hundreds of thousands of people.


Continuous attacks on schools and medical facilities have had far-reaching consequences, making access to essential health care and education ever more challenging. In the first three months of 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) verified more than 70 attacks impacting health-care providers, supplies, facilities, warehouses and transport in Ukraine, out of over 260 attacks globally. The impact is especially devastating in front-line areas where health-care facilities have already been heavily impacted. Additionally, according to the Education Cluster, nearly 90 education facilities have been impacted by attacks across Ukraine since the start of 2024. Educational and medical facilities were impacted in front-line areas and other locations further from active ground fighting, such as Lviv City in the west, hindering access to essential health care and education.


In response to needs caused by the war, the humanitarian community launched the 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for Ukraine on 15 January. The plan, appealing for US$ 3.1 billion, aims to assist 8.5 million most vulnerable people, including over 3.3 million in front-line areas. The humanitarian action focuses on providing multi-sectoral life-saving assistance and enabling access to basic services for war-affected people, including non-displaced, internally displaced and those who returned home after displacement. While front-line communities are a priority due to the severity of needs, humanitarians also support the people most in need across the country.


Overview (January-March 2024)

Source: OCHA

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Russian attack on MSF office in Ukraine

 

Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) strongly condemns a missile attack on its office in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on Friday, 5 April.

 

The building was destroyed completely and five people were injured, including an MSF staff member.  As a result, MSF has suspended its medical humanitarian activities in the Donetsk region temporarily, with the exception of supporting emergency care and ambulance referral services.

 

MSF has been providing medical care in the Donetsk region since 2015. As the war escalated, our projects expanded, and we extended our assistance to areas near the front lines. We have been providing medical and psychological care through our mobile clinics, which serve over 100 communities where access to medical facilities is hampered by the continuing hostilities and a shortage of health care professionals. The Ministry of Health relies on MSF to carry out medical evacuations, running 15 ambulances in Donetsk and other regions when there are mass casualties after bombings.   

Adding to the current disruption to activities, the office in Pokrovsk was also our pharmacy and logistical center for equipment and cars.  


This incident followed two attacks in November 2023 on MSF-supported hospitals in Kherson and Selydove that resulted in deaths and injuries.  


MSF remains committed to providing vital medical assistance in multiple areas of Ukraine, including the Kherson, Cherkasy, and Vinnytsia regions, but we must ensure that our operations can be carried out safely and effectively.


Source: Doctors without Borders

STATUS OF THE CONFLICT

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov claimed that NATO and Russia are in “direct confrontation,” likely as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to intensify existing information operations meant to force the West into self-deterrence. Peskov claimed on April 4 that relations between Russia and NATO have “slipped to the level of direct confrontation” and that NATO is “already involved in the conflict surrounding Ukraine.”[1] Peskov accused NATO of moving towards Russia’s borders, likely referencing Finland and Sweden’s recent accessions to the alliance, and claimed that NATO is expanding its military infrastructure closer to Russia. Russian officials have long attempted to frame NATO and the West as an existential threat to Russia as part of the Kremlin’s justifications for its war in Ukraine.[2] Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on March 18 that a full-scale war between NATO and Russia is undesirable but possible.

 

The Kremlin leveraged this overall information operation about escalation with NATO to target France specifically, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent calls for the West to expand the level and types of security assistance it sends to Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu held a phone conversation on April 4, reportedly their first contact since October 2022.[11] Shoigu threatened that the potential deployment of French troops to Ukraine would “create problems for France itself” in response to French President Emmanuel Macron’s March 16 statement that “perhaps at some point” it would be necessary for French troops to operate in Ukraine. Shoigu’s call with Lecornu is likely an attempt to directly influence recent French calls for Europe and the West to provide more military aid and other support to Ukraine. Shoigu likely attempted to single out France since Macron initiated the ongoing conversation about the West removing self-imposed constraints on its support for Ukraine. Shoigu is also likely attempting to deter future attempts from any Western states to increase military aid to Ukraine and intensify support for Ukraine by forcing Western leaders to self-deter out of fear of Russian retaliation.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to balance the Kremlin’s opposing efforts to set social expectations for a protracted Russian war effort and to assuage Russian society’s concerns about the economic consequences of the war and labor migration. Putin stated during a speech at the 12th Congress of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia in Moscow on April 4 that Russia will experience a high demand for human capital and face labor shortages in the coming years.[19] Putin stated that Russia’s future labor shortage is “absolutely certain” and that it is “critically important” for Russia to increase labor productivity and modernize and automate various economic sectors, such as industrial production, service industries, and the agro-industrial sphere. Putin stated that Russia does not “have much of a choice: either [Russia] needs to import labor from abroad or [Russia] needs to increase labor productivity.”


Source: ISW (April 4)

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Russia fired five missiles on Ukraine’s southern city of Zaporizhzhia on Friday, killing at least four people, injuring 20 and damaging residential buildings and industrial facilities, the regional governor said. Two journalists covering the aftermath of the strikes were among those wounded in the city, near the war’s frontline. Ivan Fedorov, the governor, said: “First there were two missile strikes, and then, about 40 minutes later, there were other strikes at the same place – just as rescuers, police started working.” Reuters TV footage showed reporters rushing to help colleagues lying injured on the ground before emergency crews arrived.

 

A Ukrainian drone attack targeting the Morozovsk airbase in Russia killed or injured 20 members of airfield personnel and destroyed six Russian warplanes, as well as badly damaging eight others, according to officials in Kyiv. Russian defence officials, however, claimed they intercepted more than 40 Ukrainian drones and only a power substation was damaged in the barrage. Neither side’s claims could be independently verified. Morozovsk airbase is used by Russian tactical bombers that launch guided bombs at the Ukrainian military and frontline towns and cities, according to a Kyiv source.

 

Russian forces have taken control of the settlement of Vodyane in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, Russia’s defence ministry claimed on Friday. The ministry’s statement – the latest of several claimed advances by Russian forces since they took nearby Avdiivka in February – could not be independently verified. Earlier on Friday, Russia’s state-run RIA news agency cited an official as saying Russian troops had entered the suburbs of Chasiv Yar, farther north near Bakhmut. The Ukrainian military denied Russian advances in the town.

 

Zelensky cautioned that the arrival of all promised F-16 fighter jets from Ukraine’s Western partners in 2024 will provide Ukraine with only 10 percent of the fighter aircraft Ukraine would need to completely defeat Russian aviation and restore Ukraine’s ability to operate effectively in the air domain. Zelensky stated that Ukraine will need a combination of air defense systems and fighter aircraft to combat the Russian aviation threat, namely to prevent the Russian use of KAB guided glide bombs.


Sources: ISW (April 6)

The Guardian

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Triple risk of harm for Ukraine's health transport workers over other health care staff, WHO data indicates

A concerning new trend has emerged from the WHO Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA) in Ukraine: Ambulance workers and other personnel servicing health transport face a risk of injury and death three times higher than that of other health care service workers.


“Many emergency teams come under fire either on the way to a call or at their bases. 4 of our employees have already been killed and 12 people were injured and hospitalized,” said Halyna Saldan, Head of the Centre for Emergency Medical Care and Disaster Medicine of Kherson Regional State Administration.


Out of the 68 attacks verified by the WHO during the first quarter of 2024, some 12 of them – almost 20 percent - targeted Emergency Medical Services, including 9 attacks targeting emergency medical aid base stations, 7 attacks resulting in damage to ambulances, and 6 attacks affecting assets and emergency medical aid equipment.


In 3 of these 12 attacks, 4 health workers were injured, and two health professionals were killed, marking a casualty rate nearly three times higher than in other health care services during the same period.


The attacks pose significant dangers to both health care workers and patients.


The first months of 2024 have witnessed a concerning escalation in the number of attacks, with nearly 1 attack per day in the months of January and March, mostly with the use of heavy weaponry.


“This grim number underscores the pressure on the Ukrainian health care system,” stated Dr. Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. “WHO urgently reiterates its calls for the protection of health care workers and patients, as well as the uninterrupted delivery of essential health services.”


Since the invasion by the Russian Federation in February 2022, WHO has verified 1,682 attacks on health care in Ukraine, resulting in 128 deaths and 288 injuries of medical personnel and patients. WHO defines an attack on health care as any act of verbal or physical violence, obstruction or threat of violence that interferes with the availability, access and delivery of curative and/or preventive health services during emergencies. This can range from harm caused by heavy weapons to psychosocial threats and intimidation that affect access to health care for those in need.


Source: WHO



Collective Sites ready to host IDPs

UPDATES ON INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

NATO weighs a plan to provide long-term military help to Ukraine as Russian troops assert control

NATO is debating a plan to provide more predictable military support to Ukraine in coming years as better armed Russian troops assert control on the battlefield, the organization’s top civilian official said Wednesday.

“We strongly believe that support to Ukraine should be less dependent on short-term, voluntary offers and more dependent on long-term NATO commitments,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said before chairing a meeting of the alliance’s foreign ministers in Brussels.

Earlier on Wednesday, Ukraine lowered the military conscription age from 27 to 25 to help replenish its depleted ranks after more than two years of war. A shortage of infantry combined with a severe ammunition shortfall has helped hand Russian troops the initiative.

“The reason why we do this is the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. It is serious,” Stoltenberg told reporters. “We see how Russia is pushing, and we see how they try to win this war by just waiting us out.”

The plan is to have NATO coordinate the work of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — a forum of around 50 countries that has regularly gathered during the war to drum up weapons and ammunition for Ukraine — rather than the U.S. European Command.

While the move would not see NATO directly providing weapons to Ukraine — as an organization with 32 members that functions by consensus, the allies only agree to send non-lethal aid like demining equipment, fuel and medical supplies -– it would mark a new phase in its involvement in the war.

NATO is desperate to do more for Ukraine, particularly while Russia holds a military advantage, but its members are not ready to offer the country their ultimate security guarantee: membership. Nor do they want to be dragged into a wider war with a nuclear-armed military power like Russia.

Under the new plan, which is expected to be endorsed by U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterparts at their next summit in Washington in July, NATO would coordinate the military side of Ukraine support efforts by assessing Ukraine’s needs, collecting pledges and running meetings.

The Financial Times newspaper reported that the multi-year plan could involve up to $100 billion, but Stoltenberg declined to provide details.

Western pledges of support to Ukraine have been marred by broken promises. A European vow to provide 1 million rounds of ammunition fell woefully short, and financial aid meant for Ukraine’s war-stricken economy was delayed by political infighting in Europe and is still blocked in the U.S.


 Stoltenberg again urged Congress to overcome its differences and pass a supplemental spending bill, which includes roughly $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, saying that the continued delay “has consequences” on the battlefield.

Source: AP News

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NATO’s next challenge: How to reverse years of underfunding defense


 The 75-year history of NATO can be described in three acts, each defined by existential threats to Western security.

First, there was the Cold War and the Soviet threat. Act Two came in the 1990s and 2000s, when NATO deployed troops for the first time in Bosnia and Kosovo, followed by Afghanistan and Iraq. From 2014 onwards, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine and ISIS’s self-proclaimed caliphate brought armed threats right back to the alliance’s borders at a time when the United States and its allies were slowly retreating from the world.

NATO’s fourth act may be defined by a crisis that has unfolded in slow motion. For over a decade, allies have chronically underspent on defense while the West’s adversaries modernized and bolstered their own military capabilities.

The most obvious way to understand the impact of this is through Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Of course, the person most responsible for Russia’s invasion is Putin himself. But people directly involved in Western security policy say that warnings of the need to improve defenses were overlooked in favour of balancing books in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Rasa Juknevičienė, Lithuania’s defense minister from 2008-2012, recalls a meeting with US officials at the Pentagon in 2012 where individuals “from all sides, including the US, acknowledged that Russia would be in a position to test NATO by 2019.”

Despite knowing of the risk, by 2014, only three of the then 30 allies were able to meet NATO’s target of 2% of GDP on defense spending. By 2019, that number had risen only to seven.

Speaking to CNN, Juknevičienė, now a European Parliament member, said: “NATO was sleepy in the 2010s, focused on the war on terror rather than regional threats. Defense spending stayed low across the West not just because of budget pressures, but also because everyone – including the US – was frightened to provoke Russia.

“In my opinion, that meant Russia could see NATO was not serious about its own defense, which made invading Ukraine far less intimidating.”

Underfunding defense budgets over a long period has multiple consequences – from lower troop numbers to poorly maintained equipment. But in the context of the war in Ukraine, limited and fast-dwindling ammunition stocks for the West to give to Kyiv has possibly been the most damaging.

“One thing that’s absolutely certain, if allies in Europe had met their 2% target – in particular, Germany – there would be a lot more weapons to give Ukraine without weakening the defense of their own countries respectively,” John Herbst, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, told CNN.

“Maybe if there were more weapons there would have been more of a deterrent to Putin,” he added.

It’s worth noting that it was not NATO’s job to protect Ukraine from invasion. Ukraine is not a NATO member and only formally declared its intention to join after the 2022 invasion.

However, the nature of NATO allies’ support for Ukraine – much of it direct military support – has exposed the vulnerability that years of underfunding has caused the alliance.

It’s not just that low military spending means low weapon stocks. A lack of demand means no incentive for private arms companies to invest in weapons manufacturing. In other words, you can have all the money in the world, but you cannot buy weapons that don’t exist. Meanwhile, Russia has massively expanded its own munitions production and has turned to Western adversaries including North Korea and Iran for additional weapons.

“There is no question the US and its allies do not have arms industries producing enough equipment for a major-power war,” said Herbst.

This has been acknowledged by NATO’s members. More allies than ever before are now meeting the 2% minimum spending commitment, and that is set to increase ahead of a summit in Washington in May – an event to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO’s creation on April 4, 1949.

NATO officials, often cynical, skeptical types, are unusually optimistic that the governments of so many are taking spending – particularly on arms procurement – more seriously.

The bloc’s leader, Jens Stoltenberg, said in February that 18 of its members were expected to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense this year.

Billions of dollars have been pledged, as well as schemes by individual nations to purchase and ramp up the production of ammunition and weapons. But most of the plans being drawn up by officials are in reality longer-term – it takes time to build factories and train staff.

This means that the challenge in front of NATO allies now is not just how can they meet the demand for weapons coming from Ukraine, but how do they reverse years of underfunding their own defenses?

European diplomats, particularly from Baltic countries, often describe the need not merely to fill up the shed that’s been emptied by giving weapons to Ukraine, but to also build a new shed that, too, needs its own weapons.

So even with the new spending pledges, it will still take a very long time to get where most European defense officials now acknowledge ammunition stocks should be.

One person acutely aware of this is Stoltenberg himself. Speaking Wednesday in Brussels ahead of a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, the secretary general said NATO “could assume more responsibility for coordinating military equipment and training for Ukraine.” Stoltenberg added that allies should “commit to more support for Ukraine and rely less on voluntary contributions.”

“We must have an assured, reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine,” he said.

Peter Ricketts, the UK’s former ambassador to NATO, told CNN that while more countries meeting the 2% mark is undeniably a good thing, “new money takes years to turn into capability. And it’s not enough now that the threat has increased in Europe. Especially given the risk of a future Trump presidency drawing back from Europe.”

The situation NATO finds itself in at 75 is unusual. On one hand, it can be argued that things are rosier than they have been for a long time. Countries are relatively united on what needs to be done in the long term and are broadly willing to pay for it. New initiatives on things like rapid response forces, training exercises and troop deployments are being coordinated centrally.

The alliance has even expanded, with both Finland and Sweden joining its ranks in the past year.

Douglas Lute, former US ambassador to NATO, told CNN: “I think the glass is half full, rather than half empty. I think on a map of the world, the NATO territorial border is the brightest red line, and allies are making it brighter through new initiatives. If you ask if NATO is strong enough to deter Putin from a direct attack, I’d say we should judge his capabilities and his intentions. The fact is Putin has respected NATO’s borders.”

However, old resentments linger. Some allies don’t trust that others will be quite so generous with defense spending if the Russia-Ukraine war were to end. And officials from countries that have historically met their commitments still view their counterparts as freeloaders who might not learn the lessons of this war, on their doorstep.

Source: CNN

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NATO developments

 

NATO foreign ministers will meet on Wednesday to discuss how to put military support for Ukraine on a long-term footing, including a proposal for a €100bn ($107bn) five-year fund and a plan seen as a way to “Trump-proof” aid for Kyiv. The proposals by NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg would give the western alliance a more direct role in coordinating the supply of arms, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine, diplomats say. The plans will be discussed during a two-day meeting in Brussels that will celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO and prepare for a summit of alliance leaders in Washington in July.

 

Other developments include:

Source: The Guardian

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Forthcoming support


Source: The Guardian

HOLY FATHER ON UKRAINE

Angelus - April 7, 2024 (Sunday)

Let us not cease to pray for peace, a just and lasting peace, especially for tormented Ukraine and for Palestine and Israel. May the Spirit of the Risen Lord enlighten and sustain all those who work to decrease the tension and encourage gestures that make negotiations possible. May the Lord give leaders the capacity to pause a little in order to deliberate, to negotiate.

Non venga meno la nostra preghiera per la pace, una pace giusta e duratura, in particolare per la martoriata Ucraina e per la Palestina e Israele. Lo Spirito del Signore risorto illumini e sostenga quanti lavorano per diminuire la tensione e favorire gesti che rendano possibili i negoziati. Che il Signore dia ai dirigenti la capacità di fermarsi un po’ per trattare, per negoziare.

Links to the full text in ENGLISH and ITALIAN

General Audience - April 3, 2024

And let us not forget martyred Ukraine; so many dead! I am holding in my hands a rosary and a copy of the New Testament left behind by a soldier who died in the war. This young man was named Oleksandr — Alexander — and he was 23 years old. Alexander read the New Testament and the Psalms, and in the Book of Psalms, he had underlined Psalm 130: “Out of the depths I cry to thee, O Lord! Lord, hear my voice!”. This 23-year-old young man died in Avdiïvka, in the war. He had his life ahead of him. And this is his rosary and his New Testament, which he read and [with which he] prayed. I would like all of us to take a moment of silence, to think about this young man and many others like him who have died in this madness of war. War always destroys! Let us think of them, and let us pray.

E non dimentichiamo la martoriata Ucraina, tanti morti! Ho nelle mani un rosario e un libro del Nuovo Testamento lasciato da un soldato morto nella guerra. Questo ragazzo si chiamava Oleksandr, Alessandro, 23 anni. Alessandro leggeva il Nuovo Testamento e i Salmi e aveva sottolineato, nel Libro dei Salmi, il salmo 129: “Dal profondo a te grido, o Signore; Signore, ascolta la mia voce”. Questo ragazzo di 23 anni è morto ad Avdiïvka, nella guerra. Ha lasciato davanti una vita. E questo è il suo rosario e il suo Nuovo Testamento, che lui leggeva e pregava. Io vorrei fare in questo momento un po’ di silenzio, tutti, pensando a questo ragazzo e a tanti altri come lui, morti in questa pazzia della guerra. La guerra distrugge sempre! Pensiamo a loro e preghiamo.

Links to the full text in ENGLISH and  ITALIAN

MEMBER PHOTOS

Therapeutic games are part of the mental health support provided to traumatized children and adolescents. The colorful vehicles are filled with materials for group games, creative activities, as well as therapeutic games and toys. (Photos courtesy of: Malteser Ukraine)